请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 公司报告 宝姿时装(589.HK) 宝姿于中期业绩发布会中表示，为了应对未来行业竞争及维持目前已有的市场地位，公司计划于未来几年内加大对于业务的投资。因此，我们预计未来公司的利润水平会受到压力。虽然公司一直以国际品牌著称于女装市场，但是近年来受到国际及国内品牌的相互冲击，品牌老化问题逐渐显现。1) 本地市场份额正逐渐丢失。A股上市公司朗姿股份(002612 CH)公布了远好于公司的中期业绩；2) 与百货公司的议价能力逐渐下降；以及3) 品牌溢价逐渐减少。越来越多的消费者选择于奥特莱斯里购买产品。我们下调12-25% 的2013-2015E年每股基本盈利，分别至0.55元(人民币，下同)、0.56元和0.64元。根据2013年7.5倍市盈率，相当于80%的行业平均水平，得出一年目标价5.30港元，维持“中性”。 公司公布2013年业绩，销售收入受上半年同店销售增长7.4%的影响，同比增长9.2%，符合我们的预期。毛利率为81.9%，与去年同期水平一致。公司于2013上半年内加大对业务的投资，主要体现于零售网络升级、店铺外观优化、储备设计人才和继续海外市场扩张计划。财务数据方面则主要体现在租金费用、销售所涉及的摊销成本、广告成本以及员工成本的上升，因此导致经营利润率同比下降3个百分点至19.0%。公司表示中短期内都将会持续增加对业务的投资，对经营利润率会造成一定压力。净利润率受32.4% 的有效税率影响，同比下降2.7个百分点至13.5%。未来随着海外业务贡献的逐渐增加，预计有效税率将长期维持在一个较高的水平，影响净利润率的水平。每股基本盈利为0.25元。公司建议派发每股中期股息0.11元，相当于44%的股息派发率，比2012年中期56%的普通股息派发率大幅下降。 库存水平继续上升 2013年中期，公司在多伦多和芝加哥增设了两件奥特莱斯，希望帮助改善库存水平。库存周转天数从2012年底的679下降至2013年中期的671日。尽管如此，库存拨备额同比是有所增加。库存拨备的销售占比从2012年中期的9%上升至2013年中期的10.3%。 盈利预测及估值 人民币 百万元 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 销售收入 1,985 2,098 2,244 2,475 2,808 同比增长 (%) 15.5% 5.7% 6.9% 10.3% 13.5% 毛利率 (%) 82.1% 81.9% 80.9% 80.0% 79.5% 净利润 430 354 308 311 350 同比增长 (%) -6.4% -17.7% -13.1% 0.8% 12.8% 每股基本盈利 (元) 0.76 0.63 0.55 0.56 0.64 每股股息(元) 0.49 0.38 0.44 0.49 0.55 市盈率 (X) 5.2 6.2 7.2 7.0 6.2 资料来源：公司资料，招商证券（香港）预测 中性 (上次：中性) 目标价：HK$5.30 现价：HK$5.06 招商证券(香港)研究部 赵晓 0755-25310166 ivyzhao@cmschina.com.cn 2013年9月2日 基础数据 恒生指数 21731.37 H股指数 9825.21 总股数（万股） 55411 港股股数（万股） 55411 港股市值（港元百万） 2806 每股净资产（港元） 3.32 主要股东 持股(%) 宝姿国际 40 自由流通量 53 行业 品牌服饰 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -1 -18 -28 相对恒指表现 1 -11 -34 -30-20-1001020Sep/12Jan/13May/13(%)589.HKHSI Index 资料来源：彭博 相关报告 预计利润持续受压，维持“中性”评级 Please see important notice on the last page. Company Report PORTS DESIGN LTD(589 HK) Ports Design is going to adopt the reinvestment strategy for the coming year. Hence, we expect OP margin compression over time. We think the company is facing furious competition from both local and international brands. Even though the company denies that the brand lacks uniqueness, we start to see some signs of brand aging. 1) Losing market shares from local markets. Lancy (002612 CH), A-share listed womenswear company, recorded much better interim results than Ports; 2) Losing bargaining power to department stores; and 3) Losing brand’s premium. More outlet stores opened, as customers prefer to buy the company’s products at cheaper prices. We cut 2013-2015E earnings by 12-25% to EPS RMB0.55, RMB0.56 and RMB0.64. We maintain NEUTRAL with new target price of HK$5.30 (HK$5.91 previously), based on 7.5x 2013E P/E (equivalent to 80% of industrial average). Top-line growth but profit reduced. In line with our expectations, the company posted a top-line growth of 9.2%, driven by 7.4% SSSG in 1H2013. GP margin was 81.9%, the same as 1H2012. The company reinvested into the business in 1H2013 by upgrading retail network, changing stores layout, retaining design talents and expanding oversea market. So that, there was notable increase in the rental expenses, depreciation expenses, advertising expenses and staff costs. Due to the above factors, OP margin dropped 3ppt to 19.0%. The company is going to adopt the reinvestment strategy for the coming year. Hence, we expect OP margin compression over time. NP margin decreased 2.7ppt to 13.5%, as the effective tax rate increased to 32.4% in 1H2013. Looking forward, increasing overseas business changes the mix of income tax, pressures NP margin in the long run. Basic EPS was RMB0.25. The company declared interim dividend of RMB0.11 per share, representing 44% of dividend payout ratio, down from 56% (for ordinary dividends) in 1H2012. Inventory level continued to increase. In 1H2013, the company opened 2 more outlet stores in Toronto and Chicago to help reduce inventory. Inventory turnover days improved to 671 days in 1H2013 from 679 days in 1H2012. In spite of that, inventory level actually rose. The other operating expenses increased 23.5%, due to the increase in stock provision. Stock provision as a percentage of retail revenue increased to 10.3% from 9.0% in 1H2012. Financials RMB mn 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 1,985 2,098 2,244 2,475 2,808 YoY Growth (%) 15.5% 5.7% 6.9% 10.3% 13.5% GP margin (%) 82.1% 81.9% 80.9% 80.0% 79.5% Net Profit 430 354 308 311 350 YoY Growth (%) -6.4% -17.7% -13.1% 0.8% 12.8% EPS (RMB) 0.76 0.63 0.55 0.56 0.64 DPS (RMB) 0.49 0.38 0.44 0.49 0.55 P/E (x) 5.2 6.2 7.2 7.0 6.2 Neutral (Previous: Neutral) Target Price：HK$5.30 Current price：HK$5.06 China Merchants Securities (HK) Ivy Zhao 86-755-25310166 zhaox@cmschina.com.cn 02 Sep 2013 Key data HSI Index 21731.37 HSCEI Index 9825.21 S/O(mn) 554.11 S/O (HK$)(mn) 554.11 Mkt cap (HK$) (mn) 2806 BVPS(HKD) 3.32 Major shareholder Holding (%) Ports Int’l Enterprise 40 Free float 53 Industry Appar