碧桂园(2007.HK)：广东省外销售比重持续上升

1 of 1 碧桂園碧桂園碧桂園碧桂園（（（（2007200720072007.HK）））） 廣東省外銷售比重持續上升廣東省外銷售比重持續上升廣東省外銷售比重持續上升廣東省外銷售比重持續上升 Phillip Securities (Hong Bloomberg ││││ Reuters ││││ POEMS 2007200720072007.HK ││││2007200720072007.HK ││││2007200720072007.HK 行業行業行業行業：：：：內地房地產內地房地產內地房地產內地房地產 Phillip Securities Research 5555 JuneJuneJuneJune, 2013333 年報分析年報分析年報分析年報分析 評級 ：搜集 收市價 ：4.38 目標價 ：4.80 投資概述投資概述投資概述投資概述 2013年前四個月銷售完成率達37%，略超我們預期。1-4 月碧桂園實現合約銷售金額人民幣231億元 ，而銷售面積達344萬平方米 ，合約均價6700 元/平方米 。其中4 月銷售額實現同比增長153%，合約銷售面積實現同比漲134%。前四個月的合約銷售額占到全年銷售目標620億元的37%，銷售表現良好 。 我們觀測到，5-6月公司推盤積極且去化率較高，因此預期上半年公司預期將有超過320億的合約銷售收入，銷售完成率超過50%。我們對于碧桂園完成全年620億的銷售目標預期樂觀。 碧桂園在2012年的業績符合預期。公司收入和淨利潤分別增長了21%和18%，毛利率則從34.5%上升至36.6%，這得益於廣東以外地區的帶裝修的入帳面積上升所致。廣東以外地區的銷售額比重由2011年的34%上升至2012年的40%，增長趨勢明顯。我們認爲，2013年廣東以外地區的銷售仍是重要看點 ，預期銷售比重將上升至50%。 土地儲備方面，2013年以來碧桂園買入656萬平方米新土地儲備 ，賣出344萬平方米土儲，令總土地儲備面積由2012年底的5540萬平方米升至5800萬平方米 。我們認爲，儘管公司的去存貨速度令人滿意，但土地策略仍顯過於進取，需注意財務風險。 2012年底 碧桂園的 淨負債比率降低至53%，管理現金能力改善 ，手頭現金從2011年的124億元增加至2012年底的169億元 。淨負債比率從57.2%下降至2012年底的52.8%。此外 ，碧桂園 在2013年1月成功發行10年期7.5億美元優先票據 ，這不僅降低了借貸成本，也改善了債務期限結構。我們預計債務成本從2012年的9.56%下降到2013年的8.8%。 我們認爲 ，2013年是房地産政策環境多變的一年，而碧桂園憑藉差異定位、規模優勢、具備競爭力的價格策略以及成本控制得以展現其競爭優勢，公司的銷售現金流和盈利能力預期將有良好表現。我們維持碧桂園“收集 ”評級 ，12個月目標價爲4.8港元 ，相當於7.2倍的2014年預期市盈率。 研究員 陳耕 chengeng@phillip.com.cn +8621 63512937-107 Country Garde nRating2.00Accum ulate- Previous Rating1.00BuyTarge t Price (HKD)4.80- Previous Target Price (HKD)3.5Closing Price (HKD)4.38Expected Capital Gains (%)9.6%Expected Dividend Yield (%)4.7%Expected Total Re turn (%)14.3%Raw Beta (Past 2yrs w eekly data)1.53Market Cap. (HKD mn)79,846Enterprise Value (HKD mn)89,45952 w eek range (HKD)2.61-4.71Closing Price in 52 w eek rangeKey Financial Sum m aryFYE11A1213E14ERevenue (RMB mn)34,74841,89049,53858,069Net Prof it, adj. (RMB mn)5,8136,8527,7919,173EPS, adj. (RMB)0.330.380.440.53P/E (X),adj.6.478.238.737.25BVPS (RMB)1.652.062.352.71P/B (X)1.291.521.631.42DPS (RMB)0.120.140.160.18Div. Yield (%)5.62%4.48%4.17%4.69%Source: Bloomberg,Country Garden*All multiples & yields based on current market priceValuation M ethodP/E0%50%100% Country Garden Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 6666 June, 2013 2 of 2 FYEFY10FY11FY12FY13FFY14FValuation RatiosP/E (X), adj.8.466.478.238.737.25P/B (X)1.491.291.521.631.42EV/EBITDA (X), adj.8.016.267.116.305.32Dividend Yield (%)4.25%5.62%4.48%4.17%4.69%Per s hare data (RMB)2.1162.1363.1283.843.84EPS, reported0.250.330.380.440.53EPS, adj.0.250.330.380.440.53DPS0.090.120.140.160.18BVPS1.421.652.062.352.71Grow th & Margins (%)Grow thRevenuen.a.34.66%20.55%18.26%17.22%Operating prof itn.a.38.25%-87.85%1045.17%16.97%EBTn.a.42.97%20.14%14.22%17.63%Net Income, adj.n.a.35.47%17.87%13.70%17.74%MarginsGross prof it margin32.36%34.52%36.62%35.11%34.62%Operating margin26.76%27.47%2.77%26.82%26.76%Net prof it margin16.63%16.73%16.36%15.73%15.80%Key RatiosROE (%)17.61%20.00%18.45%18.72%19.56%ROA (%)5.88%6.14%5.62%6.21%5.97%Net Debt/(Cash)15,02321,22125,10326,70226,985Net Gearing (X)59.11%70.58%64.56%61.23%59.50%Incom e State m ent (RMB m n)Revenue25,80434,74841,89049,53858,069Cost of sales(17,453)(22,752)(26,551)(32,146)(37,968)Gross prof it8,35111,99515,33917,39220,101Operating prof it6,9049,5451,16013,28415,538EBT6,7199,60611,54113,18215,506Tax(2,401)(3,768)(4,657)(5,355)(6,291)Tax rate55.60%64.54%67.65%68.42%68.27%Prof it f or the year4,3185,8386,8847,8279,215Minority interests2725323642Net prof it4,2915,8136,8527,7919,173Source: BLOOMBERG, Country Garden and Phillip Securities Country Garden Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 6666 June, 2013 3 of 3 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd (“Phillip Securities”). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities has not verified this info