GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 SWIRE PACIFIC A 太古股份公司A (00019 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 6 Company Report: SWIRE PACIFIC A (00019 HK) 中文版 Jason Song 宋 然公司报告：太古股份公司A (00019 HK) Chinese version +852 2509 7768jason.song@gtjas.com.hk 13 June 2014 Maintain ‘Accumulate’ Rating, Revise Up TP 维持“收集”评级，上调目标价 z Swire Properties introduced new serviced apartment project. Swire Properties (SPL) introduced its new serviced apartments at 23 Tong Chong Street, Island East. The development is scheduled for opening in mid-2015. The project situates in the heart of TaiKoo Place, which is Hong Kong's largest privately owned business district. This new serviced residence will add value to SP's core investment portfolio and it is part of the TaiKoo Place redevelopment plan incorporating the construction of two Grade A office towers. According to the SPL, these three new buildings will help realize the full potential of island east as an integrated urban community. The project is a 28 storey building comprising 111 fully serviced suites with a choice of studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom or penthouse suite, the respective GFA of which are approximately 480 sq ft, 620 to 740 sq ft, 1,220 sq ft and 1,620 sq ft. z Revise up FY14-FY16 earnings estimates. We revise up FY14-FY16 underlying profit by 3.1%, 3.9% and 4.7%, respectively, to HK$10,277 million, HK$12,195 million and HK$13,889 million. FY14-FY16 underlying EPS are expected to be HK$6.830, HK$8.105 and HK$9.231, respectively. z Maintain ‘Accumulate’ and revise up TP to HK$105.00. We believe the mutual stock market access between Shanghai and Hong Kong may lead to the narrowing of the discount to NAV for the blue chip companies. Thus we revise up our TP to HK$105.00. Our TP represents 25% discount to FY14 NAV. z 太古地产推出新的服务式住宅项目。太古地产宣布位于港岛东糖厂街23号的最新服务式住宅命名为「太古坊栢舍」。项目预计于2015年中旬开幕。该全新服务式住宅项目坐落于香港最大型的私人商业区，太古坊的心脏地带，为太古地产的核心投资物业组合增值。该发展项目是太古坊重建计划的一部分，计划还包括兴建两座甲级办公楼。公司表示，这三座全新大楼将加强港岛东作为多元化综合小区的潜力。太古坊栢舍楼高28层，共提供111个服务式住宅，包括开放式、一房或两房单位，以及一个顶层特色单位，建筑面积分别约为480平方呎、620至740平方呎、1,220平方呎及1,620平方呎。 z 上调公司2014-2016年盈利预测。上调2014-2016年基本盈利预测3.1%、3.9%及4.7%至102.77亿港元、121.95亿港元及138.89亿港元。我们调整后的2014-2016年基本盈利分别为6.8.30港元、8.105港元及9.231港元。 z 维持“收集”评级，上调目标价至105.00港元。我们认为沪港股票市场交易互通互联机制可能会带来蓝筹股相对NAV的估值折让收窄，因此我们上调目标价至105.00港元。我们的目标价较2014年NAV有25%的折让。 Rating: Accumulate Maintained 评级： 收集 (维持)6-18m TP 目标价: HK$105.00Revised from 原目标价: HK$100.00 Share price 股价： HK$95.000 Stock performance 股价表现 Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年 Abs. % 绝对变动 % 5.3 9.3 5.8 Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 0.9 2.1 (5.8) Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元） 92.7 91.0 90.5 Source: Bloomberg. Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Underlying Net Profit 基本股东净利 Underlying EPS 基本每股净利 EPS每股净利变动PER市盈率BPS每股净资产PBR市净率DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE净资产收益率12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) (△%) (x) (HK$) (x) (HK$) (%) (%)2012A 49,040 8,270 5.496 (52.2)17.3138.5510.73.500 3.7 3.82013A 51,437 8,471 5.630 2.416.9146.4130.63.500 3.7 4.02014F 56,371 10,277 6.830 21.313.9153.3790.62.979 3.1 4.62015F 61,768 12,195 8.105 18.711.7161.3200.63.398 3.6 5.22016F 66,151 13,889 9.231 13.910.3170.1520.63.779 4.0 5.6 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 1,504.6 Major shareholder 大股东 John Swire & Sons 47.7%Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 138,925.5 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 37.03 months average vol. 3个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 1,608.9 FY14 net gearing (%) FY14净负债/股东资金 (%) 15.552 weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低 96.800/80.550 FY14 est. NAV (HK$) FY14 每股估值（港元） 140.2 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. ( 15.0)( 10.0)(5.0)0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 Jun- 13Sep- 13D ec- 13M ar - 14Jun- 14% of returnHSISWIRE PACIFIC A 13 June 2014 SWIRE PACIFIC A 太古股份公司A (00019 HK) Company Report 请见尾页免责声明 Page 2 of 6 太古地产推出最新服务式住宅项目。项目预计于2015年中旬开幕。该全新服务式住宅项目坐落于香港最大型的私人商业区，太古坊的心脏地带，为太古地产的核心投资物业组合增值。该发展项目是太古坊重建计划的一部分，计划还包括兴建两座甲级办公楼。公司表示，这三座全新大楼