The 2026 midterm elections will determine control of Congress during the final two years of President Donald J. Trump’s term, significantly impacting competition policy through oversight, appropriations, legislation, and confirmations, even if the Executive Branch remains unchanged. Historically, shifts in congressional control have had a greater impact on enforcement priorities than on substantive antitrust law.
Key areas of influence include:
- Funding and resources for antitrust agencies: Congressional funding decisions affect the FTC and DOJ Antitrust Division's ability to hire staff, pursue investigations, and litigate cases.
- Congressional oversight and investigations: Committees can hold hearings, issue subpoenas, and request documents, influencing regulatory priorities and generating public attention.
- Legislative and judicial developments: While sweeping reforms are unlikely, targeted legislative initiatives and Senate control over confirmations of federal judges and agency officials can shape enforcement strategies and legal interpretations.
Industries likely to remain a focus of congressional interest include:
- Digital platforms and online marketplaces
- Artificial intelligence and data markets
- Healthcare and pharmaceuticals
- Consumer pricing practices
- Media and entertainment
- Energy and transportation
For businesses, the most significant antitrust effects will likely stem from established congressional powers rather than major legislative changes. Competition-related scrutiny from regulators, lawmakers, and courts is expected to remain significant, with bipartisan interest in technology, healthcare, AI, and data-driven markets. Companies that secured merger approvals or settlements during the Trump administration may face renewed scrutiny if Democrats gain control of Congress, with potential oversight hearings and investigations.
Implications for companies:
- Review and update antitrust compliance programs.
- Ensure document-retention and investigation-response procedures are current.
- Assess antitrust risks related to mergers, acquisitions, and strategic partnerships.
- Evaluate AI, data, and platform-related business practices.
- Monitor congressional investigations and enforcement trends in their industry.
- Prepare for increased regulatory and public scrutiny in concentrated markets.
Regardless of the election outcome, antitrust scrutiny is likely to remain significant, emphasizing the need for proactive risk management.
