Equity Research Department
All estimates/forecasts are as of 10/14/2026 unless otherwise stated. 10/14/2026 6:05:05EDT.
Research Summary EarlyEquity Research
Consumer
- ACI (Equal Weight): "The Hill Gets Steeper—Guidance Pulled as Management Initiates Even Deeper Business Review" by Edward Kelly. ACI's challenges growing; fundamentals tough in Q2, FY guidance pulled, new comprehensive business review announced. Levers to pull and KR lawsuit interesting, but management has a big hill to climb and N/T earnings visibility is poor. Remain Equal Weight.
- DPZ (Equal Weight): "Q3 Inline-ish but Ample Headwinds as Joe Jordan 'Tip Toes' into CEO Role" by Zachary Fadem. Q3 comps were softer vs hoped and shares are understandably lower as DPZ reduces FY26 comp & unit growth. Supply chain margins and Q4 innovation are positives, while trough P/E likely caps downside; but LT algo an overhang. DPZ still a show-me story.
Energy
- Energy: 3Q26 IOC, Major Producer, and Refiners Preview: Who Needs Duration When You Have Deleveraging? by Sam Margolin. Everyone can see the positive drivers of 3Q26 results across the Energy universe, but investors increasingly concerned about duration in both crude and product markets. Refiners, OXY, BP, CVX, COP transform themselves into the next cycle.
- Energy: 3Q26 Oil E&P Earnings Preview: Focus Is on 2027 by Noah Hungness. 3Q26 results will provide a 1st look at 2027. We expect inflation & hedging to be key themes this qtr, helping investors identify which E&Ps are best positioned to benefit from higher oil prices while managing the cost inflation that often follows.
Financial Services
- Financial Services: Brokers & Exchanges Earnings Preview by Daniel Welden. We are updating our estimates for exchange volume and retail DART releases after our recent initiation, as well as finalized estimates for quarter-end AUM levels and other retail trading metrics.
- Financial Services: Consumer Finance Laterals—JPM Q3 by Donald Fandetti. Strong card credit, with the NCO rate now below 2019. DQ/NCO's declined y/y more than last qtr. Credit card spend growth was a touch better than expected, when factoring in Amazon Prime Day Q2 timing. Good auto credit / mortgage revs down sharply.
Health Care
- Health Care: 3Q26 EPS Previews: ALNY, ASND, ARGX, BBIO, INCY, RYTM, VRDN by Derek Archila. Into 3Q26 biotech prints, we favor ARGX and VRDN long as Lumvoa enrollment forms likely clear the bogey while Vyvgart accelerated. We are cautious on ALNY, where an extra selling week boosts 3Q and 4Q26 is the real guide test.
- GILD (Overweight): "3Q Preview: In-Line Q, as Descovy Beat Offsets Cell Therapy Weakness with Upside to '27 PrEP Numbers" by Mohit Bansal. We see GILD 3Q revenue of $7.80B vs. cons at $7.79B as slight Descovy beat offsets cell therapy weakness. On Yeztugo, we expect sales in-line with 3Q cons of $288M based on IQVIA script trends.
Industrials
- FICO (Overweight): "MBA Conference Takeaways: Lenders Are Considering Their Options for Lowering Credit Costs" by Jason Haas. We attended the MBA Conference in Chicago and spoke with several lenders on FICO, VantageScore (VS), and the credit bureaus. Lenders are looking to lower costs as the industry struggles with profitability amid rising interest rates.
Materials
- Nielsen Report: Cooling Weather, Cooling Trends by Richard Carlson. Labor Day timing skews the 4-wk trends, turning our focus to 12-wk data where we see ~flat alum vols, cont’d glass weakness and PET that benefited from summer hydration. Promo activity mixed with CSDs/Energy elevated but step-downs in beer/sparkling.
Media & Telecommunications
- Media & Telecommunications: Broadcast - 3Q'26 Earnings Preview by Steven Cahall. See political strength driving modest EBITDA/FCF raises sector-wide for '26. Improved balance sheets could enable more deal-making for '27-'28 w/ the cap gone. Most bullish on NXST - best balance sheet w/ 2H'26+1H'27 debt payments = ~36% of mkt cap.
Real Estate
- Real Estate: Industrial & Cold Storage REITs: Q3'26 Earnings Preview by Blaine Heck. Strong demand from traditional (E-comm, General Retail, 3PL) and emerging (DC Suppliers, Aerospace, Defense Tech) tenant bases combined with a delayed supply response is expected to drive rent inflection & opportunistic investing. Favor EGP & REXR.
Technology & Services
- SAP-DE (Overweight): "3Q Preview — Cleaner Setup as Checks Improve" by Michael Turrin. Improving checks, consistent macro & easing compares present cleaner 3Q setup, vs. achievable bar (CCB bogey ~25% cc). Bigger investor question shifts to FY26 exit CCB growth given H2-weighted bookings & feasibility of FY27 rev reaccel. PT to €220.00.
- TEAM (Overweight): "Takeaways from Team '26 Europe" by Ryan MacWilliams. We attended Team '26 Europe where partner convos left us positive on the cadence of DC migrations and seat retention as customers move to Cloud. Larger and more sophisticated customers are starting migrations and Rovo adoption is early but improving.
Company Research Notes
- MGM (Equal Weight): "BetMGM 3Q Recap; Improved Profitability, Long-Term Guidance Reiterated" by Trey Bowers. BetMGM reported a solid 3Q result with profitability improving q/q at the contribution and EBITDA lines leading to increased cash distributions to parents. Previously lowered 2026 guidance and long-term EBITDA guidance of $500m were reiterated.
- JNJ (Overweight): "Q3 Beat & 2026 Guide Raise Despite MedTech Miss - Expect Improved Visibility on 2027/LT Outlook on Dec 8" by Larry Biegelsen. JNJ reported 3Q26 EPS of $2.59, beating consensus of $2.52/our $2.48 est. Innovative Med outperformed but MedTech missed. JNJ raised low end of 2026 sales growth guide and EPS outlook, putting implied Q4 reported sales/EPS in-line with expectations.
Sector Research Notes
- Consumer: Gaming. Indiana September AGR +6% y/y to $181m; Sports Betting AGR $49m, +15% y/y (Handle +2% y/y).
- Energy: Exploration & Production. Focus is on 2027. We expect inflation & hedging to be key themes this qtr, helping investors identify which E&Ps are best positioned to benefit from higher oil prices while managing the cost inflation that often follows.
- Financial Services: Brokers. We are updating our estimates for exchange volume and retail DART releases after our recent initiation, as well as finalized estimates for quarter-end AUM levels and other retail trading metrics.
- Health Care: Biotechnology. We see a balanced valuation for NRIX, but KYMR's upcoming KT-621 Ph2b atopic derm (AD) read out offers a potentially favorable catalyst setup by further validating STAT6.
Price Target Change
- Consumer: Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) Price Target raised to $320.00 from $320.00; Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI) Price Target raised to $12.00 from $12.00.
- Energy: APA Corp. (APA) Price Target raised to $51.00 from $51.00; Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) Price Target raised to $174.00 from $174.00; Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) Price Target raised to $20.00 from $20.00; Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. (MGY) Price Target raised to $30.00 from $30.00; Matador Resources Company (MTDR) Price Target raised to $76.00 from $76.00; Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) Price Target raised to $43.00 from $43.00; Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) Price Target raised to $82.00 from $82.00; Permian Resources Corporation (PR) Price Target raised to $28.00 from $28.00; SM Energy Company (SM) Price Target raised to $47.00 from $47.00; California Resources Corporation (CRC) Price Target raised to $76.00 from $76.00; Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) Price Target raised to $64.00 from $64.00; Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Price Target raised to $263.00 from $263.00; EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) Price Target raised to $193.00 from $193.00; BP p.l.c. (BP) Price Target raised to $57.00 from $57.00; ConocoPhillips (COP) Price Target raised to $189.00 from $189.00; Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) Price Target raised to $82.00 from $82.00; Shell plc (SHEL) Price Target raised to $105.00 from $105.00; Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) Price Target raised to C$65.00 from C$65.00; Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Price Target raised to $182.00 from $182.00; Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) Price Target raised to $485.00 from $485.00.
- Financial Services: Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) Price Target raised to $120.00 from $120.00; Bullish, Inc. (BLSH) Price Target raised to $35.00 from $35.00; CME Group, Inc. (CME) Price Target raised to $315.00 from $315.00; Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) Price Target raised to $309.00 from $309.00; Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) Price Target raised to $160.00 from $160.00; Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) Price Target raised to $100.00 from $100.00; Tradeweb Markets, Inc. (TW) Price Target raised to $125.00 from $125.00.
- Health Care: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) Price Target raised to $253.00 from $253.00; argenx SE (ARGX) Price Target raised to $1,356.00 from $1,356.00; Viridian Therapeutics, Inc. (VRDN) Price Target raised to $31.00 from $31.00; Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) Price Target raised to $165.00 from $165.00.
Earnings Estimate Revised
- Consumer: Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) FY2026 EPS raised to $21.00 from $21.00; FY2027 EPS raised to $21.00 from $21.00; Price Target raised to $320.00 from $320.00. Albertsons Companies, Inc. (ACI) FY2026 EPS raised to $1.60 from $1.55; FY2027 EPS raised to $1.35 from $1.55; Price Target raised to $12.00 from $12.00.
- Energy: APA Corp. (APA) FY2026 EPS raised to $6.24 from $5.49; FY2027 EPS raised to $3.14 from $3.12; Price Target raised to $51.00 from $48.01. Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) FY2026 EPS raised to $22.94 from $19.35; FY2027 EPS raised to $15.03 from $15.70; Price Target raised to $174.00 from $146.51. Crescent Energy Company (CRGY) FY2026 EPS raised to $2.60 from $2.18; FY2027 EPS raised to $2.26 from $2.47; Price Target raised to $20.00 from $13.06. Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. (MGY) FY2026 EPS raised to $2.80 from $2.59; FY2027 EPS raised to $2.25 from $2.49; Price Target raised to $30.00 from $25.11. Matador Resources Company (MTDR) FY2026 EPS raised to $8.54 from $8.54; FY2027 EPS raised to $7.76 from $8.85; Price Target raised to $76.00 from $55.88. Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) FY2026 EPS raised to $3.70 from $2.75; FY2027 EPS raised to $2.05 from $2.15; Price Target raised to $43.00 from $39.04. Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) FY2026 EPS raised to $7.43 from $6.57; FY2027 EPS raised to $5.45 from $6.66; Price Target raised to $82.00 from $66.66. Permian Resources Corporation (PR) FY2026 EPS raised to $2.34 from $2.10; FY2027 EPS raised to $2.10 from $2.22; Price Target raised to $28.00 from $24.26. SM Energy Company (SM) FY2026 EPS raised to $8.13 from $7.40; FY2027 EPS raised to $8.37 from $8.13; Price Target raised to $47.00 from $38.54. California Resources Corporation (CRC) FY2026 EPS raised to $3.80 from $4.65; FY2027 EPS raised to $1.66 from $1.79; Price Target raised to $76.00 from $54.22. Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) FY2026 EPS raised to $5.10 from $5.29; FY2027 EPS raised to $4.16 from $5.10; Price Target raised to $64.00 from $50.21. Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) FY2026 EPS raised to $22.23 from $19.50; FY2027 EPS raised to $18.74 from $18.49; Price Target raised to $263.00 from $198.18. EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) FY2026 EPS raised to $17.99 from $16.20; FY2027 EPS raised to $15.44 from $15.33; Price Target raised to $193.00 from $153.17. BP p.l.c. (BP) FY2026 EPS raised to $8.69 from $7.32; FY2027 EPS raised to $5.85 from $5.04; Price Target raised to $57.00 from $48.53. Chevron Corporation (CVX) FY2026 EPS raised to $17.60 from $15.24; FY2027 EPS raised to $15.35 from $13.44; Price Target raised to $230.00 from $217.73. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) FY2026 EPS raised to $13.73 from $13.38; FY2027 EPS raised to $11.60 from $11.80; Price Target raised to $182.00 from $174.08. Shell plc (SHEL) FY2026 EPS raised to $12.85 from $10.96; FY2027 EPS raised to $12.01 from $9.63; Price Target raised to $105.00 from $102.99. Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) FY2026 EPS raised to $6.44 from $6.00; FY2027 EPS raised to $4.34 from $4.34; Price Target raised to C$65.00 from C$74.19. ConocoPhillips (COP) FY2026 EPS raised to $11.35 from $9.41; FY2027 EPS raised to $11.35 from $8.11; Price Target raised to $189.00 from $140.90. Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) FY2026 EPS raised to $7.19 from $6.41; FY2027 EPS raised to $3.78 from $4.32; Price Target raised to $82.00 from $61.65. Suncor Energy Inc. (SU) FY2026 EPS raised to $11.14 from $9.79; FY2027 EPS raised to $11.48 from $8.14; Price Target raised to C$93.00 from C$106.82.
- Financial Services: Citigroup Inc. (C) FY2026 EPS raised to $11.27 from $11.25; FY2027 EPS raised to $12.30 from $12.30; Price Target raised to $165.00 from $126.42. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) FY2026 EPS raised to $24.65 from $25.00; FY2027 EPS raised to $24.65 from $24.65; Price Target raised to $390.00 from $333.82. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) FY2026 EPS raised to $74.00 from $68.50; FY2027 EPS raised to $80.50 from $80.50; Price Target raised to €1,175.00 from €895.75. Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) FY2026 EPS raised to $2.66 from $2.62; FY2027 EPS raised to $2.66 from $2.66; Price Target raised to $200.00 from $181.79. LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) FY2026 EPS raised to $23.44 from $23.76; FY2027 EPS raised to $30.03 from $30.33; Price Target raised to $362.00 from $325.63. Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF) FY2026 EPS raised to $14.18 from $12.13; FY2027 EPS raised to $14.18 from $14.10; Price Target raised to $172.00 from $156.76. Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) FY2026 EPS raised to $2.86 from $2.24; FY2027 EPS raised to $2.86 from $2.85; Price Target raised to $120.00 from $110.52. SEI Investments Company (SEIC) FY2026 EPS raised to $6.39 from $6.41; FY2027 EPS raised to $7.14 from $7.17; Price Target raised to $129.00 from $105.51. The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) FY2026 EPS raised to $7.92 from $7.90; FY2027 EPS raised to $7.92 from $7.90; Price Target raised to $105.00 from $95.94. Bullish, Inc. (BLSH) FY2026 EPS raised to $1.42 from $0.52; FY2027 EPS raised to $1.42 from $0.53; Price Target raised to $35.00 from $31.77. CME Group, Inc. (CME) FY2026 EPS raised to $12.20 from $12.15; FY2027 EPS raised to $13.11 from $13.08; Price Target raised to $315.00 from $278.03. Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (CBOE) FY2026 EPS raised to $14.15 from $14.12; FY2027 EPS raised to $15.10 from $15.05; Price Target raised to $309.00 from $292.25. Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) FY2026 EPS raised to $8.60 from $8.50; FY2027 EPS raised to $8.60 from $8.50; Price Target raised to $160.00 from $156.42. Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) FY2026 EPS raised to $4.75 from $4.17; FY2027 EPS raised to $4.75 from $4.17; Price Target raised to $100.00 from $93.48. Tradeweb Markets, Inc. (TW) FY2026 EPS raised to $4.70 from $4.05; FY2027 EPS raised to $4.70 from $4.05; Price Target raised to $125.00 from $109.98.
Health Care
- NRIX (Equal Weight): "F'3Q26 Recap—Bexdeg Advancing on Multiple Fronts; KT-621 Read Through Is the Next Catalyst for STAT6 Value" by Derek Archila. We see a balanced valuation for NRIX, but KYMR's upcoming KT-621 Ph2b atopic derm (AD) read out offers a potentially favorable catalyst setup by further validating STAT6.
- GILD (Overweight): "3Q Preview: In-Line Q, as Descovy Beat Offsets Cell Therapy Weakness with Upside to '27 PrEP Numbers" by Mohit Bansal. We see GILD 3Q revenue of $7.80B vs. cons at $7.79B as slight Descovy beat offsets cell therapy weakness. On Yeztugo, we expect sales in-line with 3Q cons of $288M based on IQVIA script trends.
- HUM (Overweight): "Announces New CenterWell Joint Venture Agreement with BlackRock, Replacing Existing WCAS JV" by Stephen Baxter. Importantly, the new agreement doesn't contain a sponsor put option, improving HUM's flexibility.
- UNH (Overweight): "Key Areas of Discussion on the 3Q26 Earnings Call" by Stephen Baxter. Results ahead of expectations, driven by Medicare Advantage / Medicaid / Optum Health. Commentary on 2027 was constructive and UNH noted that 2027 consensus EPS understated the opportunity in front of the company.
- UNH (Overweight): "3Q26 Beat Driven by UHC / OptumHealth, MLR Favorability Remains Strong, Guidance Increased by More Than Beat" by Stephen Baxter. UNH beat estimates, driven by UHC & Optum Health outperformance. MLR favorability remained strong in 3Q26, with increased evidence of reinvestment in the quarter. Guidance increased by more than the beat, to at least $20.50 from $19.50-$20.00.
- OMDA (Equal Weight): "Consumer AI Knocks on Clinical Care’s Door" by Stan Berenshteyn. OMCL is down 12% vs. the S&P flat as Google expands AI health coaching. We see some merit in adjacent competitive concerns: consumer alternatives could dilute differentiation and monetizable utilization without displacing benefit coverage.
- JNJ (Overweight): "3Q'26 Ortho Growth Comparison" by Larry Biegelsen. JNJ's Q3 ortho business decelerated by 80bps sequentially including Recon which grew 3.2% y/y vs. 4.5% last quarter. However, ortho growth accelerated 300 bps on a stacked 2-yr basis.
- LQDA (Equal Weight): "LQDA & UTHR Settle; LQDA Keeps PAH, We Are Looking for Clarity on L606" by Benjamin Burnett. The settlement is a positive as 1) it ends the legal saga, 2) LQDA keeps PAH, and 3) no market disruption of Yutrepia. We assume existing ILD patients will stay on drug near term but look for more clarity on legal risk surrounding L606. PT to $33.00.
- VRTX Management Not Concerned About Pove Manufacturing by Mohit Bansal. We think the Evotec manufacturing bear thesis remains unsubstantiated based on what we know today. Mgmt remains confident in Evotec manufacturing, says it is building normal redundancies, and that the pove PDUFA is on track.
- Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX): "Vera Therapeutics, Inc. (VERA) Management Not Concerned About Pove Manufacturing" by Bansal. We think the Evotec manufacturing bear thesis remains unsubstantiated based on what we know today. Mgmt remains confident in Evotec manufacturing, says it is building normal redundancies, and that the pove PDUFA is on track.
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