The Evercore ISI Shopping Guide Cos. Survey has shown moderate fluctuations in ad sales, reflecting the challenges faced by businesses in the current economic environment. Since late June, the survey index increased from 45.6 to 46.2 before pulling back to 45.5 in mid-August and slightly rising to 45.8 in September due to holiday-related advertisements. However, ad sales have softened in early October as the index decreased to 45.6. Key observations include:
-
Economic Challenges: Respondents report that many small businesses, auto dealers, and restaurants remain hesitant to purchase ad space due to economic uncertainty. While real-estate agents show solid ad sales in many markets, the overall environment remains challenging.
-
Seasonal Trends: Holiday and seasonal advertisements have provided temporary boosts to ad sales, as seen in the increases from late June to early July and late November to December. However, recent weeks have shown moderation, with the index declining from 54.8 to 53.7 in the past two weeks, indicating softer ad sales at the start of 2020.
-
Mixed Performance: The survey index has experienced mixed results, with some participants noting stronger holiday and auto-related ads, while others reported softer-than-expected performance. The general sentiment is that the overall economic environment continues to pose challenges, especially for businesses without a significant online presence.
-
Survey Methodology: The Evercore ISI Shopping Guide Survey tracks sales revenue at 21 national and regional shopping guide companies, which produce print and online advertising papers targeting local and small businesses. The survey theory is that improved cash flows in small businesses will lead to increased advertising spending.
-
Key Data Points:
- Survey index increased from 53.3 to 53.5 in September due to holiday ads.
- Index moderated from 54.5 to 53.9 in late July, with seasonal ads remaining strong but service ads soft.
- Index declined from 54.8 to 53.7 in late December, with softer ad sales reported at the start of 2020.
Overall, the survey indicates that while holiday and seasonal ads provide temporary boosts, the broader economic challenges continue to impact ad spending, particularly for smaller businesses.
