马达加斯加弹性和适应性渔业分析

The analytics process, the report preparation, and the engagement process with thestakeholders and clients were supported by the PROBLUE Multi-Donor Trust Fund whichsupports the development of integrated, sustainable, and healthy marine and coastalresources. For more information about the fund, seehttps://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/problue#1. Disclaimer: Initially, this report was prepared by the University of British Columbia. Subsequently, theWorld Bank Task Team revised and edited the document, including through the use ofartificial intelligence tools. This report is a product of the staff of the International Bankfor Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, andconclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the ExecutiveDirectors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank doesnot guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors,denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply anyjudgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory orthe endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Copyright Statement: The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions orall of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The InternationalBank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank encourages disseminationof its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the workpromptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a requestwith complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive,Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470,http://www.copyright.com/. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressedto the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433,USA, fax 202-522-2422, e-mailpubrights@worldbank.org. Suggested Citation: World Bank. 2026.Analysis for Resilient and Adaptive Fisheries in Madagascar.Washington, DC: World Bank. Final Editing:provided by the Translation and Interpretation unit in Global CorporateSolutions (GCSTI), World Bank. Design:Maxim Roussinov in collaboration with World Bank, Global Corporate Solutions,Creative Services. Cover Photo:© Legna69 | iStock CONTENTS ACRONYMS.......................................................................................................................................IXEXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................................XI1.CONTEXT: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON MADAGASCAR’S MARINEAND COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS...................................................................................................12.PROJECTING IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MARINE ECOSYSTEMSAND FISHERIES RESOURCES.................................................................................................82.1Climate change scenarios..................................................................................................92.1.1Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).................................................................102.1.2Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)..................................................102.1.3Integration in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)....112.2Changing ocean conditions in Madagascar..................................................................112.2.1Historical and projected marine heatwaves.............................................................122.2.2Projected future changes in environmental variables.........................................172.3Climate impacts on habitat suitability and species distribution...........................222.4Climate risk to marine species.......................................................................................322.4.1Algorithm for calculating climate vulnerability and risk inmarine species...................................................................................................................332.5Climate impacts on fish stocks and catches...............................................................383.THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE RISK IN MARINE FISHERIES ANDCOASTAL RESOURCES ON DEPENDENT HUMAN COMMUNITIES..............................423.1Climate change impact on economic measures........................................................433.2Social-ecological vulnerability assessment................................................................463.2.1Dimensions of vulnerability..........................................................................................503.2.2Calculation of the vulnerability index......................................................................553.2.3Subnational vulnerability............................................