壹账通2026年上半年财报点评：国内支付收缩拖累业绩，海外增长强劲

Forecast Change China Other Financial Services 1H26 missed on domestic drag;overseas strong JohnnyXie,CPA ResearchAnalyst+852-220-36141 Yeahka's1H26IFRSattributableprofitincreased2%YoYtoRMB44mnbutmissed ourestimateby36%.Revenuefell24%YoYtoRMB1.3bn(28%belowourestimate),mainly due to:(1)a 26%HoH(or 23%YoY)contraction in domestic paymentvolume,and (2)a46%contraction inmerchantsolutionsrevenue. Thekeypositiveprint was strong overseaspaymentvolumegrowth,which nearlydoubled compared to 2H25.Gross margin also improved by 6ppts YoYto29%,driving an 18% YoY increase in operating profit, while the operating marginexpanded by 2 ppts to 6%. DomesticpaymentcontractiondrivenbystrategicshifttowardoverseasmarketsTotal paymentvolume (TPV)contracted23%YoYtoRMB886bn,draggeddownby a sharp26%HoHdecline indomesticTPVtoRMB880bn.While managementattributedthispullbackpartlytoweakofflinemacroeconomicconsumption,itwasalso a direct result of Yeahka's strategic decision to prioritize ROl over volume.Specifically,the companyhasbeendeliberatelyexitinglow-marginmerchantstorefocusonhigh-valuedomesticfranchisebrandsthatoffermoresustainableprofitability. This strategic pivot bore fruit in terms of profitability.Despite a 22% YoY drop inpayment revenue,paymentgrossprofit actually roseby25%YoYtoRMB244mn.Correspondingly, the gross profit margin (GPM) surged to 22% (up from 14% in1H25)-its highest level since 2021-while the domestic blended take rate tickedup by 1 bp HoH to 12.3 bps. Lookingahead,managementexpectsthepaymentgrossmargintoremainabove20%.Asthisstrategictransitioncontinues,weanticipatedomesticTPVwillremainunder pressure in 2H26, though margins should continue to gradually expand. Overseasgrowthstrongerthanexpected,thoughContributionremainslimited OverseasTPVsurged 87%HoH(294%YoY)toRMB6bnin1H26,led primarilybySingapore andHongKong.Moving into 2H26,management has observedcontinued mid-teens monthly growth and expects expansion in Japan and the UStoaccelerate.Althoughtheoverseasfeerateeased slightlyby0.3bpsto63.1bps, OtherFinancial ServicesYeahka commandinghigherfeesthanHongKongandSingapore. distributors during this early expansion phase.Despite this drag,overseas profitroseto15%of total profit.Backed bythis strong momentum,management hasaggressivelyaccelerated itstargettimeline,nowaimingforoverseas operationstocontribute 50% of total profit within three years (ahead of the previous five-yeartarget). Value-added services showed divergent performance in1H26: MerchantSolutions:Revenuedeclined46%YoYtoRMB100mn,primarilydraggeddown by lower lending revenue amid tighter regulatory oversight. Despite the top-line pressure, the segment's gross margin improved to 94.1%. In-Store E-commerce: Revenue rose 21% YoY to RMB31mn, driven by a strongGMV surge of over75%.However,the e-commerce gross margin dropped HoHto71%duetohigherchannelcostsassociatedwithmarketingnewproducts,suchasvirtual employees. Earnings revisionToreflectYeahka's strategicshiftandweaker-than-expectedrevenuebase-driven bylowerdomesticTPVand softvalue-added services-wereduce ourFY26-28Erevenueforecastsby22-29%.Wealsolowerouroverall TPVassumptionsby27-34%toaccountforlowerdomesticpaymentvolumes,evenasthemixshiftsmoreresulting from this mix shift partly cushion the weaker top line, we still cut ourattributable profit forecasts by 29-44%.Nonetheless,the increasing structuralweightof thehigh-margin overseas business willdrive bothoverall TPV expansionand meaningful blended margin improvement in the medium term. Theseadjustments lead us tolower ourpricetarget fromHks8.50toHKs6.40,whichcorrespondsto 16.9xFY26EP/E. Shareholderreturnsprovidedownsidesupport Ourtargetprice isderivedfromaprobability-weightedvaluationframework,towhichweassignaprobabilityweightof60% in abase-case scenario,and20%/20%inabear-andbull-casescenario,respectively.The base scenario value iscalculatedonaDCFmodelwithWACCassumptions includinga risk-free rateof1.8% (China 10Y bond yield), a riskpremium of 6%,a beta of 1.3x (historicalaverage), and along-term growthrate of2.5% (slightly above theoretical long-termGDPgrowth).We adopta P/Etargetequivalentto1standarddeviationbelow/above the historicalaverage to capture thebear-/bull-casevalue. Yeahkaalso announced its first-ever interim dividend with a DPS of RMB0.03.Assuming a 30%annual payout ratio,this implies an FY26 dividend yield of 1.4%which, though modest, we view as a positive signal of improving managementcommitmenttoshareholderreturns.Additionally,thecompanycontinued itssharebuybacks,purchasingatotalof HKs5.6mnin1H26,whichshould provide somedownsideprotectionfor the stock.Wemaintain our Buy rating. Risks:(1)increasing competition inpaymentfee rate,(2)increasing competitionfrom internet giants in in-store e-commerce, (3) limits imposed by domestic andinternational regulations, and (4) fall behind in new payment technology. Other Financial ServicesYeahka Other Financial ServicesYeahka Other Financial ServicesYeahka Other Financial ServicesYe