莱茵金属公司更新：会议反馈与估值风险分析

Company Update Germany Aerospace&Defence Feedback from company meetings ChristophLaskawi ResearchAnalyst +49-69-910-31924 Feedback from IR meetingsWehostedInvestorRelationsrepresentativesAnikaMarkerandJillisHansmannfor meetings in Switzerland. The key discussion points were rather longer-term innature and centered around the requirements of the future battlefield, orderbacklog andriskto orderintake,executionrisk,as well as investmentplansandcapacity. Research Analyst+33-1-4495-9315 Tim RokossaHead of European Equity Research+49-69-910-31998 Main discussion points have been: Nicolai KempfResearchAnalyst+49-162-5168792 Orderbacklog/order intake:The company reiterated that the updatedguideofanorderbacklogofmorethanEUR10Obnisconservativeandthat,depending on the Arminius contract,the range should be betweenEUR100-120bn.Around70%ofthecurrentbacklog(attheendofH1-26)isa fixed order backlog, and about 90% of the next 2.5 years'revenues iscovered bythe backlog.That share decreases to 50%for years further out. Nikita PapaccioResearchAnalyst+49-69-910-48637 Arminius:Itwashighlightedagainthat onDecember9,at leastthefixedcontractisexpectedtobeinthebudgetcommittee.Thefurtheroptions areclearlydependingon thecustomer,andthere is no precisetimelineforthose options to be approved, while an approval at the date of the fixedcontract is also not ruled out. The overall programme is split into aEUR12.4bn fixed portion (tobedelivered until theendof2029),a EUR2bnservice contract, an option 1 of EUR14bn (2030-2035),and option 2 ofEUR12bn (2035andfollowing). Mira WiegratzResearch Associate+49-69-9103-1733 Guidance: Changes to the outlook that were introduced with the Q2-26results areentirelybased onthe scrappedF126projectandthe respectiverevenue reduction of EUR300m in the Naval division guide.The 2030targetsforthe divisionwerereiterated,whileitwas clearlystatedthatthosecapacity.In ourview,there is a risk thatthe 2030targetsfor Naval will needto be adjusted down with the CMD in November. Capex:The reduction of capex in 2026 is not a cut but a shift, as theinvestmentsallowforanoverallreductionofcapexspend,andanupdateonfuturecapexplansisexpectedtobeprovidedwiththeCMD.Long-term,the company reiterated it targets about 5% of sales in cash capex.Theplanned capex shift and potential reduction is not expected to lead to anegativerevenueimpactin2027/2028,asthelargerfactoriesareexpected IMPORTANTRESEARCHDISCLOSURES ANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS LOCATEDIN APPENDIX1.Deutsche Bankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescovered in itsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhave a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should considerthisreport as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision. Aerospace&DefenceRheinmetall Supplychain/execution:Discussionshavealsofocussed on supplychain and execution risk. It was reiterated that the company is holding stock forcrucial raw materials such as cotton linters and has a diversified supplierbase of about 10 suppliers for semiconductors.At the same time,thewood-basedlinters.Drones versus land:The companyreiterated seeing strong demand for MBTs and IFVs, while drones are clearly a significant addition on thebattlefield. While in a stationary war scenario, those vehicles might be lessprotection, as well as theircapabilityto project force. highlighted as well.Should demand shift from e.g.,artillery to significantlymore drone usage, Rheinmetall would be able to generate high-marginrevenues from selling the warheads.That said, the company pointed tosignals indicating sizeable artillery demand, as various states areexpanding theirartilleryfleet.Stockingto NATOtarget levels likely requiresa decadeormoreof production. Appendix 1 subjectofthis research,please see the mostrecentlypublished company reportor visit ourglobal disclosure look-up page on our websare strongly encouragedto review this information before investing ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyU.S.RegulatorsDisclosures marked withanasteriskmayalsobe requiredby at least one jurisdiction inadditiontothe United States.See ImportantDisclosures Required byNon-UsRegulatorsand ExplanatoryNotes.1.Within thepast year,Deutsche Bank and/orits affiliate(s)has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company,forwhichit receivedfees.2.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)mayactasamarketmakerorliquidityproviderinthefinancialinstrumentsissuedbythiscompany7.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s)hasreceived compensationfrom this companyfortheprovision of investmentbanking or financial advisory services within the past year8.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s)expects toreceive, or intendsto seek,compensation for investmentbankingservices from this company in the next three months.14.DeutscheBankand/oritsaffiliate(s)has received compensationfromthis companywithinthepastyearfornon-investmentbanking related services.15.investmentbanking services. ImportantDisclosuresRequiredbyNon-U.S.Regul