AI 对澳大利亚商业地产市场的影响洞察报告

AUSTRALIA AUGUST 2026 CONTENTS 1About the Study 2Key Assumptions 3Economic Scenarios City Scenarios4 Property Scenarios5 Strategy Recommendations6 ABOUTTHE STUDY ABOUT THE STUDY OBJECTIVE WHY THIS MATTERS To assess how artificial intelligence influencescommercial real estateoutcomes not througha single forecast, but through arange ofplausible macroeconomic conditions APPROACH Macro-to-CRElinkage:Explicitly traceshow AI impacts flowthrough theeconomy into realestate fundamentals Decision-oriented:Built to supportstrategyconsiderations foroccupiers andinvestors, not justresearch conclusions Sectordifferentiation:Recognizes that AIwill affect CREsectors differently,through multifacetedeconomic channels •Draws on emerging research from economistsand technologists about the potential impactsof AI•Uses econometric models and ascenario-based frameworkintegrated intoCushman & Wakefield’s House View forecasts;AI is one of many factors driving forecasts•Focuses on technology’s transmission toalleconomic drivers of CRE demand, not AIadoption or exposure alone AI IMPACT Baseline scenario: Economy LABOUR MARKETS STEADY GROWTH BACKDROP NEAR-TERM LONG-TERM Real GDP averages between 2% to 2.5% over thenext decade, navigating near-term energyheadwinds as AI investment provides anincreasingly positive uplift to growth. AI adoption becomes morewidespread and while the economycontinues to expand, job growthmoderates slightly in line with longterm trend. Slowdown in employment in2027 followed by robustrecovery over 2028 and 2029. PRODUCTIVITY & GROWTH GAINS AI provides a modest offset to Australia's weaktrend productivity growth, with adoptioncontinuing at its current incremental pace ratherthan a structural step-change. Gains buildgradually and arrive late in the decade. INFLATIONNORMALISES CENTRAL BANKS 10-YR BONDS The Cash Rate stayselevated into 2027before normalizing andsettling between 3%and 3.5%. CPI settles backinto the RBA’s 2%to 3% target bandby the end of2027. 10-year Gov’t bondyields begin to ease in2027 and settle near 4%,consistent with stablecapital markets. SMARTER SERVICES, STRONGER EXPORTS AI lifts Australia's supply side through servicesproductivity, amplified by demand for criticalminerals and LNG exports supporting a regionalbuild-out in AI infrastructure. AI IMPACT Baseline scenario: Commercial real estate AI is additive to demand,not a substitute for space Job displacement is real,but net job creationdominates AI increases office bifurcationand the premium on flexibility Office demand isreshaped, not reduced AI adds modestly to growthacross sectors, with cumulativespace demand ending thedecade a little higher than thepre-AI trend implied. The effectbuilds slowly and is precededby a period of recalibration. Office space demand remainsstrong but the composition ofdemand changes over time asthe nature of office-usingemployment evolves. AI accentuates the shift in demandtoward high-quality, well-located,and adaptable space, as officesevolve from desks to collaboration,decision-making, and clientengagement. AI eliminates routine roles, butmost jobs evolve rather thandisappear, with new businessesand higher-value work driving netemployment growth. Retail benefits from AI,but becomes morepolarised Logistics & Industrialevolves gradually, butrequirements rise Location matters moreacross all sectors Experiential andlocation-driven retail lead AI exposure varies acrosscapital cities, wideningperformance gaps acrossgeographies and assets. Physical, experience-basedretail remains resilient, withdemand concentrating incapital cities. Stronger income growthsupports spending, but a K-shaped consumer drivesoutperformance at the highand low ends, with pressure onmid-tier retail. Traditional demand remainsintact, while automation, powerneeds, and advanced logisticsdrive demand for modern,flexible facilities over time. WE MODEL 4 UNIQUE SCENARIOS AI IMPACT: REAL ESTATE DEMAND Prime net absorption 2025-2035 (sqm, ‘000s) KEYASSUMPTIONS AI IMPACT STUDY: OUR APPROACH Our approach was to model AI’s impact through a chain of transmissions ECONOMIC SCENARIOS/ASSUMPTIONS SCENARIO 2C&W Baseline SCENARIO 1Productivity-Led Expansion SCENARIO 3 SCENARIO 4 AI Bust - Slowcession 50% Probability Dystopic/Displacement 15% Probability 5% Probability 25% Probability •Gradual AI adoption lifts productivitygrowth through the next decade;GDP growth runs between 2% to2.5%.•Labor: Strong growth trajectory ismaintained before gradually slowingover forecast horizon.•Inflation falls back within the RBA’s2% to 3% target band by 2028;gradually improving productivitycontains inflation over the forecasthorizon and allows the RBA to bringthe Cash Rate back to neutral.•Terms of trade normalise gradually;iron ore drifts higher on steadyglobal steel demand. •Faster AI adoption broadlyaugments labour and raisesproductivity growth.•Real GDP growth outperformsbaseline by 1 to 2 percentag