2026年中期投资者简报要点

Kingdee International Software(0268.HK) KeyTakeawaysfrom1H26InvestorsBriefing Weattended Kingdee's1H26 investors briefing on12 Aug26,keytakeaways include:1)Al-native revenue guided to exceed RMBibn in 2026E,withLingeepre-embeddedinERPsystemstargeting10,000paidcustomersbyyear-end; 2)margin improvement is structural-gross margin expanded2.1pptsto67.7%in1H26,drivenbysubscriptionmixshiftandheadcountrationalisation;3)competitivemoatremainsintact:Kingdee'scustodianshipofmission-criticalbusiness datacreates compoundinglock-in;4)full-yearguidancereaffirmedwithrevenuegrowth>10%andadjustednet profit margin expanding to 7%.We finetune financial projections andservicesandsoftwaresector,maintainBuy. underpinned by Lingee's pre-embedded ERP conversion model targeting10,o00paid customers byyear-end; Margin expansion is structural, driven by subscriptionmix shift and opex optimization; Kingdee's custodianship of mission-criticalenterprise data creates compounding its key moat over Al solution delivery;Management reaffirmed FY2026 guidance and iong term Al vision. ModelUpdate-Wefine-tuneour2026E/27E/28Erevenueby+1%/+3%/+4%andraisenet incomeby6%/4%/2%onstrongerAl-nativecontributionand operatingleverage.TPloweredtoHK$11.9(from HK$13.7)onweakIT servicessectorsentiment, based on SOTP:10x FY27E P/Efor traditional software + 4.6xFY27E P/S(3-year mean) for cloud subscription.Maintain Buy. Kyna WongAC+852-2868-7820kyna.wong@citi.com Yiming Li, CFA KeyTakeawaysfrom1H26InvestorsBriefingAl-Native Revenue RMB1bn Target in Sight exceed RMB1bn in 2026E. Lingee is pre-embedded within existing ERP customersystems,facilitatinga low-frictionconversionpath-managementtargets10,o00paid Lingeecustomersbyyear-end,with80%expectedto comefromexisting ERPcustomer conversions. The 2.1ppts gross margin expansion to 67.7% in 1H26 reflects a durable mix shifttoward higher-margin subscription revenue,reinforced by meaningful coststructurereset.Managementreduced headcountto~10k (froma peak ofover12k),drivingrevenueper employee up20.8%YoY in 1H26.Selling and R&D expensetowardthe69-70%range in2027E. CompetitiveMoatatClientStickinessandTrust Management affirmed thatwhileproductivity and personal Altoolsmay be cededtoLLM/internet players,mission-criticaldomains such asfinance,R&D,andprocurement requirea trusted custodian of business process data.Clients aremorewillingtomigratethesesensitiveworkflowsonto LingeepreciselybecauseKingdeealreadymanagestheircore operations. ReaffirmedFull-YearGuidance Management guided FY2026 revenue growth of10%+ with >Rmb 1bn Al-nativerevenue.Capexwillremain lightatbelowRMB30Omn.Operatingcashflowtargetsto grow>20%.Adjusted net profit margin is expectedto expand to7% in2026from3.3% in2025.The2030 vision targets Al-native revenue at50%of total. Model Update Wefine-tuneour2026E/27E/28Erevenueby+1%/+3%/+4%,largely reflectingstrongerAl-nativeproductcontribution andsustained cloud subscriptionmomentum.Onthemarginfront,improvedoperatingefficiencyandaleanercoststructuredrivenet incomeupgradeof+6%/+4%/+2%across2026E/27E/28E.WeITservicessectors,inwhichweapply10xFY27EPEtosoftware&implementationservices business and4.6xFY27EP/S (3-yearaverage)tocloud-basedsubscription business.Wemaintain Buy rating. Bull/Bear: Kingdee International Software (0268.HK) BULLAssumptions ·Highertargetvaluation of6.3xFY27EP/Sforcloud (5-yearmean)and15xFY27EP/Efor traditional software toaccountforstronginvestorsentimenther-than-expected BASEAssumptions .Fundamentals aided by cloud segment expansion and solid growth of ERP software segment.SOTP based on 4.6xFY27EP/Sfor cloud (3-yearmean)and 10xFY27EP/Efor traditional software in the basecase. BEARAssumptions Lowertargetvaluationof3.3xFY27EP/Sforcloud (1SDbelow3-yearmean)and5xFY27EP/Efortraditionalsoftwareon slowgrowthinthecloudsegment. KingdeelnternationalSoftware services and products to enterprises, government agencies and otherorganizations in China and overseas. The company's key ERP productsincludeKiS,K/3,and EAS,and itscloud ERPproducts includeKingdeeCloudGalaxy, Cloud Cosmic & Constellation, Jingdou Cloud, KiS Cloud and GuanyiCloud.According to IDC, Kingdee commanded thebiggestmarket shares at18%/46%respectively,inChina'sSaaSERPmarketandSaaSfinancialmanagement applications market.It was listed on the HKex GEM Board in2001and transferredto the Main Board in 2005.Companyfounder Mr.XuShaochun has thelargest shareholding at19.8%. Investmentstrategy We have a Buy rating on Kingdee.We believe the company is uniquelypositionedtobenefit from strong growth in demandforcloud ERP services inChina and has the potential to gain market share from foreign players fromcontinuous product innovation,brandrecognition,and its established saleschannels,while Alagent will become their long-term ARPU/Revenue driver. Valuation Our target price for Kingdee of HKs11.9 is based on a sum-of-the-parts(SOTP)valuation,in whichweapply10xFY27EPEto itstraditional softwaredivision,in-line with theaverage PE ofthe Chi