柴油及成品油价格再度攀升

largely closed, the Brent oil pricehas risen again, up 34% in thepast 7weeksstretched.AnadditionalshockhasbeendamagetoRussianrefinerycapacitydue to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.There has been a particularly sharpriseindieselprices,withtheUs‘crackspread'passingUsD1oo/bforthefirsttime.Jet fuel prices are also up sharply, by 41% in recent weeks.It is theserefined product prices that ultimately may matter more than crude prices whenassessingtheoutlookforbusinesscostsandinflation.Highinventorieshavehelped to keep oil and refined product prices from rising by more, but thelongerthedisruptionslastandstocksrundown,thegreatertheriskthatpricesreportisbasedoncorrespondingassumptions,andanychangeofassumptionsmaysignificantlyaffectthepredictedretumn. ChiefEconomist, AustraliaNewZealand&Global HSBC Bank Australia LimiteThis report is based on information deemed reSecurities would violate local law or regulatio Economist,Australia, NZ&Global CommoditieHSBC Bank Australia Limitedjamie.culling@hsbc.com.au+61290065042 The Iran war continues to be a keyforce shaping global commodity markets. Recent comments from theUS president suggest that ceasefire talks are not happening (Bloomberg, 19 August 2026), as the US isnow seeking to ratchet upeconomic pressure'on Iran-details of which are due to be unveiled onMonday(Bloomberg,21August2026).Reportsalsohavelran'sregimerepeatingitsdemandstoincludewar reparations and control of the Strait of Hormuz in any deal (Bloomberg,10 August 2026) While still highly uncertain, a resolution of the conflict or return of the Strait of Hormuz to anything like thepre-war normal seem unlikely anytime soon.Attacks on Saudi ships in the Red Sea by the Houthis alsorisk disruption of traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait -an alternative route that has been helping toHuatai Securities and the report's authors have no legallyprohibited interest inthe securities orinvestment instruments referrec Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had briefly started to improve in late June, rising to an average of 36ships a day, but has now fallen back down to an average of only 12 ships a day in recent weeks. This isstill significantlybelowthe pre-warnormal ofaround 138ships aday (seeHormuz closure is reshapingcommoditymarkets,25May2026). Tracking indicators suggest that transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have also fallen. Around 27ships a day, on average, transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the first half of August, down from 36 a daythroughJune. As a result of the latest developments,global commodity prices have been grinding higher, now up13%from their late-June trough. The closely watched Brent oil benchmark has risen back to USD94/b, up 34%from its trough (USD70/b in early July), though still below its peak of over USD120/b in late April. But as we have noted before, it is refined product prices that matter more than crude prices for end-consumers and businesses (see Oils ain't oils, as commodity markets fragment, 20 March 2026). Disclosures &Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in theproprietaryandotherinvestmentservicesdepartmentsmayindependentlymakeinvestmentdecisionsthatareinconsistentwith ofHuataiSecuritiesbyanymeans,suchasduplicating,reproducing,publishing,quotingorredistributing(inwholeorinpart)to ViewHsBcGlobalInvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com as the absence of slack in the global refining system and lower product inventories. As our colleagues in HsBC's Oil and Gas teamhave noted, tightness is more visible in products than crude (see Oil markets: Five months in: Chokepoints and cushions, 13 August2026).Diesel has been a key focus recently. The US diesel 'crack spread' - the margin for making diesel from crude oil in the US - has blown out, reaching a fresh record high above USD100/b this week. This spread has topped levels seen back in late 2022,as the world went into the first winter of theRussia-Ukrainewarwithafuelshortage The widening crack spread is despite US oil refineries (and indeed, those in Europe too) running near their maximum utilisation rate,with the US utilisation rate at 97.2% in mid-August (EIA, August 2026). Even with such high rates, a lot of diesel supply has beenlost,asdiesel exportsfromRussia,theMiddleEastandAsiawere1.3mb/d loweryear-on-yearinJuly,equivalenttoabout20%ofglobal seaborne trade (IEA, August 2026). At the same time, export demand has been strong, partly reflecting diesel's relative priceinelasticity;forexample,itisneededbyfarmersenteringtheharvestseason,andtruckersasstoresstockupaheadoftheQ4holiday period. This combination has seen inventories tighten - Us inventories of 'middle distllates' (which include diesel and heatingoil) are currently 12% below their 5-year average. Beyond the developments in the Middle East conflict, part of the recent tightening in diesel markets reflects dynamics linked to theongoing Russia-Ukraine war (see Hormuz. Russia, diesel and other products,