纯碱周报：纯碱供需偏弱格局未改，整体或继续震荡。

期货研究报告 2026年8月23日 商品研究 报告内容摘要: 走势评级：纯碱——中期震荡 供应端：纯碱周度产量回升，总量维持相对高位，低于去年同期但高于其他年份同期；重碱周度产量小幅回升，整体高位震荡，轻碱周度产量同步回升，周度产量低于去年同期但高于其他年份同期；供应仍处于高位。 张秀峰—化工研究员从业资格证号：Z0011152投资咨询证号：F0289189联系电话：0571-28132619邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com ###—###研究员从业资格证号：需求端：重碱需求较弱，上周未进一步下行；轻碱需求有限，碳酸锂开工率68.65%；需求整体偏弱格局不改。 投资咨询证号：联系电话：邮箱：库存端：纯碱上周小幅累库，维持高位184.49万吨（+0.72-1.18），重碱库存81.62万吨（+0.57），远低于去年同期，但远高于其他年份同期；轻碱库存102.87万吨（-1.75），高于历年同期。 成本利润：上周纯碱联碱法成本小幅回升，亏损小幅扩大。 核心观点：纯碱产能过剩，相对于上半年整体产量有所收缩；重碱需求疲软，轻碱需求相对稳定；库存历史高位，轻重碱库存分化，重碱库存整体高位震荡，轻碱库存历年高位。供需偏弱格局压制纯碱价格，纯碱价格持续走弱，同时因氨碱法长期亏损，联碱法处于生产成本附近，限制其下行空间。短期市场情绪偏暖，纯碱持续三周上行收于小阳线，短期或还有高度，但整体或延续震荡。 操作建议：暂时观望。 风险点：玻璃冷修超预期（利空），纯碱落后产能提前出清（利多）。 信达期货有限公司CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼邮编：311200 目录 一、行情回顾.....................................................................................................................................................4二、期现结构&价差.........................................................................................................................................5三、供给..............................................................................................................................................................5四、需求..............................................................................................................................................................6五、库存..............................................................................................................................................................8六、成本&利润.................................................................................................................................................9 表目录 表1：纯碱期现&价差...........................................................................................................................................3表2：纯碱供需结构..............................................................................................................................................3表3：纯碱成本......................................................................................................................................................3表4：纯碱利润......................................................................................................................................................3表5：纯碱库存......................................................................................................................................................3 图目录 图1：纯碱主力合约走势回顾............................................................................................................................4图2：玻璃主力合约走势回顾............................................................................................................................4图3：纯碱主力基差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图4：玻璃主力基差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图5：纯碱月间价差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图6：玻璃月间价差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图7：纯碱周产量（万吨）................................................................................................................................5图8：重碱周产量（万吨）................................................................................................................................5图9：轻重比........................................................................................................................................................6图10：纯碱周损失量（万吨）..........................................................................................................................6图11：重碱周产量（万吨）..............................................................................................................................6图12：轻碱周产量（万吨）..............................................................................................................................6图13：玻璃厂内库存（万重量箱）....................................................................................................................6图14：玻璃厂内总库存（万重量箱）...............................................................................................................6图15：浮法玻璃生产成本（元/吨）.................................................................................................................7图16：浮法玻璃利润（元/吨）........................................................................................................................7图17：浮法玻璃开工率（%）...........................................................................................................................7图18：浮法玻璃日熔量（吨）.........................................................................................................................7图19：光伏玻璃开工率（%）............................