纯碱周报：纯碱供需偏弱格局未改，短期底部震荡。

期货研究报告 2026年8月16日 商品研究 报告内容摘要: 走势评级：纯碱——短期震荡 ###—###研究员从业资格证号：供应端：纯碱周度产量回落，总量维持相对高位，低于去年同期但高于其他年份同期；重碱周度产量小幅回落，整体高位震荡，轻碱周度产量同步回落，周度产量低于去年同期但高于其他年份同期；供应仍处于高位。 张秀峰—化工研究员从业资格证号：Z0011152投资咨询证号：F0289189联系电话：0571-28132619邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 投资咨询证号：联系电话：需求端：重碱需求较弱，上周未进一步下行；轻碱需求有限，碳酸锂开工率68.65%，小幅回落；需求整体偏弱格局不改。 邮箱：库存端：纯碱上周小幅累库，维持高位185.67万吨（+0.72），重碱库存81.05万吨（+1.96），远低于去年同期，但远高于其他年份同期；轻碱库存104.62万吨（-1.24），高于历年同期。 成本利润：上周纯碱氨碱法成本小幅回落，亏损小幅收缩；联碱法成本小幅回升，亏损小幅扩大。 核心观点：纯碱产能过剩，相对于上半年整体产量有所收缩；重碱需求疲软，轻碱需求小幅走弱；库存历史高位，轻重碱库存分化，重碱库存整体高位震荡，轻碱库存历年高位。供需偏弱格局压制纯碱价格，纯碱价格持续走弱，同时因氨碱法长期亏损，联碱法处于生产成本附近，限制其下行空间。上周纯碱09-01合约换月，资金扰动较大，主力空头主动离场推动纯碱价格反弹，但空间有限。 操作建议：暂时观望。 风险点：玻璃冷修超预期（利空），纯碱落后产能提前出清（利多）。 信达期货有限公司CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼邮编：311200 目录 一、行情回顾.....................................................................................................................................................4二、期现结构&价差.........................................................................................................................................5三、供给..............................................................................................................................................................5四、需求..............................................................................................................................................................6五、库存..............................................................................................................................................................8六、成本&利润.................................................................................................................................................9 表目录 表1：纯碱期现&价差...........................................................................................................................................3表2：纯碱供需结构..............................................................................................................................................3表3：纯碱成本......................................................................................................................................................3表4：纯碱利润......................................................................................................................................................3表5：纯碱库存......................................................................................................................................................3 图目录 图1：纯碱主力合约走势回顾............................................................................................................................4图2：玻璃主力合约走势回顾............................................................................................................................4图3：纯碱主力基差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图4：玻璃主力基差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图5：纯碱月间价差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图6：玻璃月间价差（元/吨）..........................................................................................................................5图7：纯碱周产量（万吨）................................................................................................................................5图8：重碱周产量（万吨）................................................................................................................................5图9：轻重比........................................................................................................................................................6图10：纯碱周损失量（万吨）..........................................................................................................................6图11：重碱周产量（万吨）..............................................................................................................................6图12：轻碱周产量（万吨）..............................................................................................................................6图13：玻璃厂内库存（万重量箱）....................................................................................................................6图14：玻璃厂内总库存（万重量箱）...............................................................................................................6图15：浮法玻璃生产成本（元/吨）.................................................................................................................7图16：浮法玻璃利润（元/吨）........................................................................................................................7图17：浮法玻璃开工率（%）...........................................................................................................................7图18：浮法玻璃日熔量（吨）.........................................................................................................................7图19：光伏玻璃开工率（%）.......