沃尔玛美国同店增速放缓挑战牛市逻辑，长期增长与盈利受关注

21 August 2026 Hold Walmart Inc WMT US United States WMT.OQ Retailing/DepartmentStores&Broadlines Low Prices, High Expectations Research Analyst+1-212-250-0590 slowest comp growth in 6 years and missed consensus for the first time since4Q19.WhileWMT remains one of thehighest-quality business models in retail,withadurablemoat supportedbyscale,omnichannel capabilities,andconsistentmarket sharegains,the slower U.S.growth challenges the prevailing bull case at~35x EPS. Management is increasingly framing the story around GMV growth,membership adds, market share gains, and margin expansion, rather than SsS,challenging conventional retail investing wisdom, which will likely require aperiod of recalibration. ResearchAssociate+1-212-250-3165 Nick BreckenridgeResearch Associate+1-212-250-9179 That said, management's commentary on underlying trends remainedconstructive.July improved relative to June,August strengthened further,andback-to-collegedemand hasbeen encouraging.Rollbacks increasedmorethan50% sequentially to 11,000, the highest level in recent history (Figure 1), whichshould support accelerating market share gains. Importantly, operating profitgrew nearly 10% (cc and excl. tariff refunds) despite the U.S. comp shortfall,reinforcing that the long-term margin story is intact.To that end, managementraised sales,EBIT,and EPS guidance,underscoring confidence in the trajectoryof the business.Thekey question remains FY27, when Walmart will need to lappricing benefits associated with tariff refunds while also absorbing additionalpressure from the next phase of the Medicare MFP program. Key changesPrice target (USD)120113%9-Source: Deutsche Bank In our view, the burden of proof has shifted back to management. Multipleexpansion from here likely requires evidence that WMT can sustainably deliver 3%to 4% U.S. comp growth alongside HSD% or better EBIT growth. Ultimately, whilewe remain constructive on WMT's competitiveposition, market shareopportunity, and growing alternative profit streams, valuation keeps us sidelined. Bulls pointed to:1) compgrowth excl.Health&Wellness in line with recentquarters; 2) continuing growth in alternative revenue streams/incrementalmargins;3)management continues to deliver on its promise to growoperating margins faster than sales even given customer strain andincrementalfuelcosts;and4)priceinvestmentsdrivingvolumeincreasesandshare gains that should continue to pay back through 3Q and potentially shifttopermanentreductions. Bears noted:1)underlying U.S.comps trendsmay be slowing,especially asthe most recent rollbacks end; 2) consumers remain under pressure, DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc. IMPORTANT RESEARCHDISCLOSURESAND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED INAPPENDIX1.DeutscheBankdoes and seeksto do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making theirinvestment decision. 1 scripts; 4) increasing difficulty of justifying a premium multiple if topline isslowing; and 5) potential margin pressure should WMT need to fundadditional rollbacks.2Q26EPSReview&EstimateChanges 2Q26: WMT delivered adj. EPS of $0.81 (DB $0.67; Street $0.66; guidance $0.63- $0.65)with ~$0.05benefit fromtariff refunds.WalmartU.S.SSS increased+2.6%(DB +3.0%; Street +3.7%) and Sam's Club SSS grew +4.4% (DB +3.5%; Street+4.0%),with U.S.driven by transactions and ticket,while Sam's Club sawstrengthintransactions offsetlowerticket.Walmart U.S.grossmarginexpanded 158bps(29bps in 1Q), reflecting net tariff refund benefit and improved business mix,partially offset byprice investment &higher fuel costs.Sam's Club gross marginincreased85bps (excludingfuel),comparedwith12bpsofcontractionin1Q,astariff refund benefit was partially offset by price investments and distribution andfulfillment costs tied to delivery growth. Walmart U.S. saw 2Q e-commerce growth of +24% (+50% on a two-year basis; vs.+26%and+47%respectivelyin1Q),whichcontributed 510bpstoSSS(decelerating from 1Q). Walmart U.S. grocery SSS grew +MSD (in line with 1Q),reflecting unit volume growth and share gains. Grocery inflation was up +1.3% inthequarter (~6obps impact from egg deflation).Health &wellness contracted-LSD, vs. +LSD last quarter, driven by +MSD script counts and share gains, offsetby~900bpsnegativeimpactfromMFP.General merchandiseincreased+LSD(vs.+MSD in 1Q),driven by strength in toys and fashion.Transactions increased for+1.5% vs. +3.0% in 1Q, while comp ticket decelerated to +1.1% vs. +2.6% in 1Q. 3Q26:Our3Q26adj.EPS forecast is$0.63(prior $0.65;Street $0.68;guidance$0.62-$0.64).Our SSS forecast holds at +3.0% for Walmart U.S.(Street +3.8%)andat+4.0% for Sam's Club (Street +4.3%).We expect gross margin up 36 bps (priorup 15 bps), and SG&A dollar growth of +7.5% (prior +5.7%), translating to EBITmargin down 6bps vs.LY (prior down 4bps).Net, our