您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [汇丰银行]:维持网易买入评级 关注下周游戏展 - 发现报告

维持网易买入评级 关注下周游戏展

2026-08-21 汇丰银行 程思齐Sophie
报告封面

Internet Software &Services +Noupdateonlaunchdatefornewgamepipeline+HighbasefromFWJandWWMin2Hmaybepartiallybuffered byEggyParty,Naraka,andMarvelRivals• Maintain Buy rating and USD150 target price 150.00150.00 We remain cautious about 2H: NetEase's share price fell 5% in the US morningsession (vs KWEB down 2%) after the bottom-line miss on 20 August. For detailsseeEquitySnap:NetEase (NTESUS)-2Q26top-lineandOPbeat,20August 2026(1) 24% bottom-line miss was due to a RMB3bn investment loss, which reflects fairvalue changeand impairment ofNetEase's investment portfolio (e.g.stakes in PDDandAlibaba,and otherunlisted investments).Non-GAAPOP beat consensus by13%,growing at 27% y-o-y, which reflects the strong revenue contribution from FWJand WWM; (2) Higher effectivetax rate.Excluding investment losses, effective taxrate would still increase y-o-y to 19.5%, due to the lapse of tax benefits from musicbusiness.Wecontinuetoexpecteffectivetaxratetoincreasey-o-yin2026;(3)thelackofnewpipelineanddecelerationofdeferredrevenuegrowth(to14%y-o-yfrom 23% y-0-y in 1Q26). The high grossing base from FWJ PC and WWM China in2H26couldbepartially buffered by strong performance byEggy Party,newcontributionfromWWMoverseas,andrecoveryofNarakaBladepointandMarvelRivals.GiventhelacklustreperformancefromSeaof Remnantsand lackof newpipeline in 2H26, we still forecast game revenue growth to decelerate yoy in comingquarters vs 1H26. We maintain our estimates, TP of USD150, and Buy rating. Key games to watch: (1)Ananta will officially announce new updates at GamescominCologneon25August.We still expect thegame tobe launched in summer2027.Newtesting date announcement, ifany,could be a positive catalyst; (2)Beneath theMist(雾海之下)begantestingon17-23August.Itscores9.4outof10onTaptap(i.e9 is considered a good starting point, in our view) and the game mainly targets Chinamobile market (see Unveiling newgame Beneath the Mist, 6August 2026); (3)Tamas:Shadowveil(诡影藏锋)completedafour-daytestingon10August,with9.3score on Taptap. The game targets China PC and mobile market. We have not yetincluded contribution from these two latter titles in our model; (4) Sea of Remnants:Managementacknowledges thegame has a steeplearning curve andreceives lots ofcriticism.Players'sentiment has started to improve afterfrequent content updates,experience optimization,and listening to players'feedback,but grossing has yettopick up based on our tracking. NetEase will continue to polish the game, with priorityin China over overseasmarkets in the near term. Ritchie Sun*, CFAAnalyst, Internet ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedritchie.k.h.sun@hsbc.com.hk+85228224392 Charlene Liu*Head of Internet and Gaming Research,Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchcharlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 0615 *Employedbyanon-USafliateofHSBCSecurties(USA) Inc,andisnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Maintain Buy: (1)We remain confident in Ananta's revenue potential, which coulddrive a re-rating in mid-2027, and for EPS growth of 15% y-0-y in 2027e vs 12x2027e PE; (2)there are cost control levers and game rejuvenation strategies topartially offset earnings risks; (3) shareholder return plans (c4% in 2026-27e) couldact as abuffer; (4)NetEase's business is less subject to macro risks and has strongFCF generation without heavy Al spending. HSBC13thAnnual ChinaConference Shenzhen|1-2September2026 Find out more Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Source: HSBCNote: Priced at close of 20 Aug 2026, 12:00 NYT Sea of Remnants-Lacklustre performance FWJMobile(FWJM)-GrowingDAUandGB NarakaBladepoint (NB)-Grossingrankreboundingsequentially Hearthstone-Mixedperformance Overwatch-Decliningintermsofpopularity 34: Overwatch's popularity in web cafes dipped m-o-m in July 2026 Riskstoourview + Difficulty in obtaining game monetisation approvals+New gamelaunchesmissing expectations+ Significant declines from legacy titles+ Intense competition from Tencent and Mihoyo Disclosureappendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s)as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflectrecommendati