网易：业绩稳定增长,维持‘买入’评级

Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 10 Company Report NetEase INC (NTES.O) NetEase announced earnings for the first quarter of 2013. Total revenue reached RMB2.26 billion, up 11.6% YoY; operating profit was RMB1.09 billion, up 11.8% YoY; net profit was RMB1.06 billion, up 12.9% YoY. NetEase also announced an annual dividend policy, under which, the company intends to make annual cash dividend distributions in an amount between 20% and 25% of its annual net income after tax commencing in 2013. As of March 2013, the company had cumulatively purchased approximately US$83.0 million under the US$100 million share repurchase program announced in November 2012. Strong self-developed game pipeline contributes to the steady growth of the online game business. Driven by strong self-developed game pipeline, reveue from online game business was RMB2.0 billion in Q1 2013, up 11.3% YoY. Since Q3 2012, year-on-year growth rate of game business has accelerated for two consecutive quarters. With the commercial launch of new expansion packs and other games in the second half of 2013, it’s expected that this growth trend will continue. Active layout on mobile and cloud computing promotes online advertising. In Q1 2013, revenue from online advertising was RMB165 million, up 15.3% YoY, compared with the growth rate of 13.1% in Q1 2012. The advertising business has benefited from the improvement of the macroeconomic environment. In recent years, active layout on mobile and cloud computing has enhanced the stickness of the NetEase’s portal users. Decline in the revenue from Blizzard’s World Warcraft improved profitability. NetEase’s profit margin recovers gradually, as revenue from Blizzard's World Warcraft accounts for a smaller proportion of the overall game business. In 2012, royalties’ share in the total game revenue fell to 7.3% from 9.7% in 2011 and the associated license fee amortization ratio decreased from 1.4% in 2011 to 0.8% in 2012. Valuation and rating NetEase’s current P/E, P/S and P/B are below the average since 2010. We set the 1-year TP at US$68.5, corresponding to the 2013/14 P/E of 13.0x/12.0x, based on DCF and P/E and P/S. Buy (prior：Buy) TP：US$ 68.5 Current price：US$59.4 China Merchants Securities (HK) Mike Chen, Liangsheng Deng +86-755-83273471 chenzu@cmschina.com.cn May 20, 2013 Key data NASDAQ Index 3498 S/O（mn） 129.8 Mkt cap (USD) (mn) 7588.6 BVPS（USD） 19.26 Major shareholder Holding (％) Ding William Lei 44.5 Free float 58.2 Industry Internet Share performance % 1m 6m 12m Absolute return 11 35 1 Relative return 4 13 -24 Source：Bloomberg Related research 1．“World of Warcraft” drags the results, valuation remains room for growth, 2012/11/20 2．Strong in-house games pipeline and upside potential in valuation, 2013/3/11 Steady growth in earnings, maintain “Buy” rating Please see important notice on the last page. 2 of 10 Company Report Financials RMB thousand 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenue 7,472,751 8,379,961 9,298,400 10,153,671 10,989,735 Growth (%) 32% 12% 11% 9% 8% Net income 3,234,264 3,637,452 4,049,688 4,415,225 5,023,090 Growth (%) 45% 12% 11% 9% 14% ADS（USD） 3.98 4.48 4.98 5.43 6.18 P/E（X） 15.1 13.4 12.0 11.0 9.7 P/B（X） 3.7 3.1 2.4 2.0 1.6 ROE（%） 24.6% 23.2% 20.2% 18.0% 16.9% Source: Company data, CMS (HK) estimates 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 3 of 10 公司报告 网易 (NTES.O) 网易(网易或公司 )公布了2013年Q1的财报。季报显示：公司Q1营收为22.6亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增长11.6%；运营利润为10.9亿元，同比增长11.8%；净利润为10.6亿元，同比增长12.9%。公司同时宣布自2013年起，将按税后净利润的20-25%发放现金股利；同时截至2013年3月，公司2012年11月宣布的1亿美元的股票回购计划已经完成8300万美元。 强劲的自主研发游戏推动在线游戏业务增长稳定 得益于自主研发游戏业务的推动，2013年Q1，网易在线游戏业务销售额为20亿元人民币，同比增长11.3%。自2012年Q3，网易已经连续2个季度销售同比增长率上升，随着2013年下半年主要游戏推出新的expansion packs和其他游戏商业化，预计这种增长仍然可以持续。 积极布局移动端和云计算推动在线广告业务 2013年Q1，网易的在线广告业务销售额为1.65亿元人民币，同比增长15.3%，2012年Q1广告销售同比增长率为13.1%。广告业务的良好发展得益于宏观经济环境的改善。同时近年来，公司积极布局移动端和云计算提升了网易门户用户的粘性。 魔兽世界营收比例的下降提升了利润率 2012年以来，网易代理的暴雪旗下的魔兽世界并不理想，导致其在整体游戏业务比例下降，但是却帮助网易逐步恢复其利润率。2012年公司特许经营证费用占游戏营收比例从2011年9.7%下降至7.3%，同时与之相关的版权摊销费用也从2011年1.4%降至0.8%。 估值 目前网易P/E、P/S、P/B估值处于2010年以来均值以下。综合DCF以及比较估值方法，得出公司估值为每股68.5美元较目前股价59.4美元具有15%的上行空间。 盈利预测及估值 人民币 千 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 营业额 7,472,751 8,379,961 9,298,400 10,153,671 10,989,735 同比增长(%) 32% 12% 11% 9% 8% 净利润 3,234,264 3,637,452 4,049,688 4,415,225 5,023,090 同比增长(%) 45% 12% 11% 9% 14% 每股盈利（美元） 3.98 4.48 4.98 5.43 6.18 市盈率（X） 15.1 13.4 12.0 11.0 9.7 市净率（X） 3.7 3.1 2.4 2.0 1.6 ROE（%） 24.6% 23.2% 20.2% 18.0% 16.9% 资料来源：公司资料,招商证券（香港）预测 买入 (上次：买入) 目标价：US$ 68.5 现价：US$59.4 招商证券(香港)研究部 陈征宇，邓良生 +86-755-83273471 chenzu@cmschina.com.cn 2013年5月20日 基础数据 NASDAQ指数 3498 总股数（百万股） 129.8 市值(美元百万) 7588.6 每股净资产（美元） 19.26 主要股东 持股(％) 丁磊 44.5 自由流通量 58.2 行业 互联网 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 11 35 1 相对恒指表现 4 13 -24 资料来源：彭博 相关报告 1、《网易(NetEase)-2012年11