雅诗兰黛：平衡之策——F4Q26收入超预期且有机销售增长品类与区域双驱动

Striking Balance ThoughF4Q26isn'tthefirsttimeELhasbeatentop-lineexpectations since embarking on its turnaround plan, it is thefirst time that organic sales growth has been broad based,across categories and geographies. UnchangedU.S. CHPC & BeveragesNEUTRAL Whiletotal company sales growth had been slightly betterthan expected each quarter of FY26,it was not until F4Q26 that we saw upside comefrom multiple geographies and categories.Yetimportantly,in the Americas, while+5% growth far surpassed expectations,we estimateunderlying growth was closerto ~1% (still ahead of our estimate) excluding a 1x benefit andPrime Day shipments. Looking to FY27, we believe balance and diversification will remain thekey objectivesforthe year as North America and Makeup are expected to accelerate alongsidecontinued strength in Asia Pacific and Mainland China. We feel more confident in the trajectoryfor Makeup than we do in an improvement in underlying growth in North America. Price TargetUSD 97.00raised 21% from USD 80.00Price (19-Aug-26)USD98.01 Potential Upside/Downside-1.0%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Market Cap (USDmn)35459Shares Outstanding (mn)361.80Free Float (%)98.5752 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)3.8Dividend Yield (%)1.43Return on Equity TTM (%)4.75Current BVPS (USD)10.52Source: Bloomberg Source: LSEG Data &Analytics, BloombergLinkto Barclays Liveforinteractivecharting U.S.CHPC&Beverages Lauren R. Lieberman+1212 526 3112lauren.lieberman@barclays.comBCI, US Kate Grafstein+1 212 526 5755kate.grafstein@barclays.comBCI, US Jim Abbott V+1212 526 4602jim.abbott@barclays.comBCI, US Whattodowiththestock: Though we think yesterday's stock move (EL +16% vs. S&P +0.2%) was a bit frothy, we can seewhythe stock would be up on a revenue-driven earnings beat, and with guidance suggestinggrowth weighted toward F1H27. Stil, when we take a step back and calmly reflect, we continueto model ~4% organic sales growth in FY27 and have a hard time stretching our assumptionsmuch above this. Likewise on the bottom line,while our EPS and margin assumptions move beauty peers, webelieve itis fairly valued.Further, we can envision a scenario from here inwhich the stock gets ahead of itself again on a bull-case out year earnings powerthesis thatmay not transpire, with the company instead choosingto reinvestupside to fuel growth. balanced top-line growth. Ever since Estee Lauder introduced its Beauty Reimagined strategydiversify its business model to support a multitude of brands, categories and geographiesbeyond Skin Care & China.Tobe sure,as we'd written since the start of last year', we expectedit to take significant time and growth investment to drastically adjustthe operatingmodel tothis new reality and in F4Q26, it would seem these efforts have begun to come to fruition.Specifically,upside to total company salesgrowth versus our model this quarter came from theAmericas (as mentioned above bolstered by 1x benefit and shipment timing), Asia Pacific (bothTravel Retail and Asia proper), Skin Care, Makeup and Fragrance. What is also intriguing to us isthe better balance the company is seeing even within geographies, with Mainland China up+9% for the year, including high single-digit growth in Skin Care, mid-single-digit growth inMakeup and double-digit growth in Fragrances -i.e., China is no longerjust a skin care market. Estee Lauder is holding to slightly growing market share in aggregate, and is seeingmarket share gains across more markets. In FY26, Estee Lauder grew +3% in a prestige beauty market that grew +2-3% (according to the company, though we'd note this is below whatother beauty companies have discussed).Importantly, in FY26, Estee Lauderis gaining share inmore parts of the world beyond just Mainland China and Japan. Specifically, in its F4Q26 pressrelease,the company discussed gaining value share in Mainland China and Japan in F4Q26 andthe full fiscal year, but that in F4Q26 it also returned to value share gains in both Korea and inWestern Europe, including in the UK with Skin Care and Fragrance driving overall growth. In theUS, while Estee Lauder has yet to return to value share growth,in FY26 it saw volumesharemarket share performance to FY26 in aggregate at the mid-point of the range, and greater/broader market share gains at the upper end of the range. As we are modeling +4% totalcompany revenue growth, we expect to see similar market share performance. America and Makeup,we feel more confident in the latter thanthe former.LookingtoFY27,we believe balance and diversification will remain the key themes of the year,with anacceleration in growth expected in North America and Makeup,and continued strength in AsiaPacific and Mainland China.While North America accelerated to +5% in F4Q26, as mentionedabove underlying growth was closer to ~1% which is better than the trend seen through the firstnine months of the year, but is still significantly below the rate of the prestige beauty market,which the company mentioned has