中国新能源车追踪——复苏仍待“金九银十”旺季验证

Automobiles & AutoComponents +Recoveryindemandremainsgradualasconsumerswaitfornewmodel launchesinSeptemberandOctober Head of China Technology&Autos ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedyuqian.ding@hsbc.com.hk+85222885108LiYang* exports remain relative bright spots Analyst, China AutosThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedli01.yang@hsbc.com.hk+85222886216ElaineChen*(Reg.No.S1700524030001) + 2Q results to test earnings resilienceand widenexecution divergence Analyst,ChinaAutosHSBCQianhaiSecuritiesLimitedelaine.chen@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 010 5795 2364 Summer demand remains soft-waitforthepeak season.China passengervehicleretail sales declined 20% y-0-y and 9% m-0-m to 1.46m units in July, partly reflectingthe traditional summerlow season and adverse weather.EV retail held up better at0.95m units, down 4% y-o-y. Early August data remains weak, although our channelchecksshowslightlybetterstoretrafficasweatherconditionsnormalised.Conversionisstillsoftasconsumershavemoreoptionsandseemhappytowaitforthenextmodelcycle.The Chengdu Motor Show (21-30 Aug)should spark fresh launches and promosfor the Sep/Oct peak season,and we expectagradual sequential pick-up,withSeptemberandOctobertherealtestofdemand. not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations. Supply adjustments are helping. With demand still muted, supply flexibility isbecoming more importantfor short-termfundamentals.July production declined2% y-o-y and domestic wholesale volumes remained 9% below retail, helpingindustry destocking. This isn't a demand rebound, but better production and inventorydisciplineshouldeasechannelpressureandlowertheriskofanotherinventory-driven price slide. Supply discipline looks like a key swing factor for margins andearnings until demand improves. Bifurcation is widening-premiumEVs and overseas stand out.The weakheadline market is hiding clear splits.Premium EVs remain resilient with RMB400k+ EVsales up59% y-0-y in 7M26,while premium ICE demand is stillunder pressure.Overseas is still the cleanest growth offset-passenger vehicle exports in Julyincreased85%y-o-yto0.92munits,withEVexportsup146%to0.54munits.Weremainpositiveaboutgrowthinexports,butwearemonitoringlocalisation,marketaccess,and policy risk.Recent changes tobattery export rebates hint at broaderpolicynormalisation,althoughthereisnochangetowhole-vehicleexportrebates. 2Qresultstorefocusattentiononexecution.Withsectordemandstillweak,thelate-AugustreportingseasonshouldprovideausefultesttoidentifytheOEMsthatcan translate product-cycle strength, premium exposure, and overseas growth intoearnings. We continue to prefer technology leaders with clearer earnings visibilityNio:strong delivery momentumand premium positioning should support improvingearnings visibility.BYD:technology upgrades,new model launches,and overseasexpansion remain thekey drivers for 2H.Geely: improving product mix and overseasexposure should support earnings resilience.CATL:remains our preferred sectorexposure, supported by scale, diversified end markets and industry-leading R&Dcapabilities. All rated Buy. HSBC13thAnnual ChinaConference Shenzhen|1-2September2026 Find out more Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited DisclosuresDisclaimer This report must be read with thedisclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Downside risks for the A- and H-shares: (1) Weaker- than-expected EV demand growth; (2) stronger-than-expected competition from peers in the EV and EV batteryspace, which could hurt BYD's pricing and margin;(3) potential increase in global trade uncertainties orunfavourable overseas policies, which might extend the Downside risks: Worse-than-expected raw materials price We continue to use a DCF model to value CATL shares, with hikes and passed-through; ASP and margin pressure afterChina stock market premium of 4.75%, a WACC of 5.7%,a beta of the launch of the rebate programme; potentially lessfavourable regulatory environmentin overseas markets;weaker-than-expected execution of CATL's overseasexpansion and unfavourable overseas tarff policies; lower-than-expected EV/ESS market growth and market sharewins; potential quality/lP disputes (especilly in the globalmarket). Disclosureappendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s),anyviews orforecasts expressed inthe section(s)ofwhich such individual(s)is(are)namedas author(s),and anyotherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back pa