中国宏观追踪器 国内的弱势需要更多支持

China Domestic weakness calls formore support emphasisefasterimplementationofexistingmeasures Economist,ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedtaylor.t.l.wang@hsbc.com.hk+85222888650Jing Liu + The 15th FYP for traditional energy sectors reinforces a green-transitionpush,withETSexpansionamarket-basedtool ChiefEconomist,GreaterChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk+85239410063Heidi Li + The PBoC's Q2 implementation report echoes the Politburomeeting'stone,withtargeted monetary support likelytocontinue AssociateGuangzhou measuresThe recent economic data shows ongoing softness in domestic demand as FAl and retail sales missed expectations again in July (chart 1).Industrial production alsobuoyant, but it was not sufficient to offset pressure in consumer-facing downstreamindustries and in segments closely linked to construction demand. July's creditfigures reinforce this view: longer-term corporate lending and household borrowingremained the key weak spots, even as net government bond issuance picked upsome momentum again (see China credit, 14 August). With growth still underpressure aftera weaker-than-expected Q2GDPperformance, wethink this hasdrivenmorecallsforcountercyclicalpolicysupport. Onthedaythe Julyactivitydata werereleased,PremierLiQiangconvened aplenarymeeting of the State Council and emphasised the need to strive to achieve thefull-year economic and social development targets (Xinhua, 17 August). In contrast,the State Council executive meeting on 20 July adopted a firmer tone,underscoringthe need to ensure the full-year targets are met (Xinhua, 20 July). We think the subtleshift in tone suggests a more pragmatic stance and greaterurgency in response tothe recent softness in the data. Premier Li emphasised the need to recognise thatinsufficient domestic demand remains a prominent issue, challenges are increasingfor some industries and enterprises, and external uncertainty is rising The meeting readout suggests that progress on the“six networks" and majorinfrastructureprojects,as well as fasterdisbursementof funding support remain thekey policy anchor. We continue to expect re-acceleration of special local governmentbond (SLGB)issuanceandfaster deployment ofthenewpolicy-basedfinancialinstrument in the coming months (chart 5). Of note, the implementation plan for theRMB80obn new policy-based financial instrument has recently been rolled outtolocal governments, with fundingfocused on newproductiveforces and newurbanisation, likely supporting infrastructure investment (Xinhua, 17 August). HSBC13thAnnualChinaConference Shenzhen|1-2September2026 Ontheconsumptionfront,supportwill likelybedirectedtowardsserviceconsumptionand to unlock more potential inlower-tier cities.On 18 August, China released an 18-point policy package to energise county-level consumption (Xinhua, 18 August). Find out more Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com The 15th FYP for coal, oil and natural gas: green transition remains a key anchor After the July Politburo meeting reiterated the need to curb involutionary competition andaccelerate progress towards carbon neutrality (see China Politburo, 30 July), the NationalDevelopment and Reform Commission (NDRC)andthe National Energy Administration (NEA)recently released the 15th FYP for the development of the coal, oil and gas industries (NDRC,17 August). The plans reaffirmed China's commitment to peak coal and oil consumption, in line upgrading over the next five years across carbon-intensive sectors, including coal and oil.A keylever will be the expansion of the national carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). At a 13August StateCouncil InformationOfficepressconference,officialsannounced that thenationalETS will expand beyond power generation, steel, cement, and aluminium smelting, to includepetrochemicals and chemicals (STCN, 14 August). This expansion is expected to bring roughly80% of China's total CO2 emissions undermore effective oversight.Quota allocation andmarket-basedtradingshouldacceleratethephase-outofoutdatedcapacityastheyraisecompliance costs for inefficient producers.The coal industry plan similarly calls for guiding theexit of small and medium-sized mines with weaker safety assurance, while increasing the shareof capacity from large, modern mines to 87% (NDRC, 10 August). July's PPI data also points in this direction. Against the backdrop of intensified safetyterms, even as other raw material prices weakened on a sequential basis amid easing MiddleEasttensionsandseasonalfactors(seeChinainflation,9August).Thatsaid,wethinktheneardevelopments in the Middle East may affect the stability of China's domestic energy supply