中国宏观追踪：加大对民生的支持

EconomicsChina Increasedsupport for people's livelihood ◆New round of China-US talks centresonexport controls, but abusiness confidence lift willneed clarityinthe longerterm Erin XinEconomist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitederin.y.xin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6975 ◆China announced new guidelines to supportpeople'slivelihood,withanemphasis onincreasedcoverageofsocial welfare… Lulu Jiang (Reg. No. S1700523070001)Economist, Greater ChinaHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedlulu.l.l.jiang@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 755 8898 3404 ◆…andsupport for targeted groupssuchas migrants,youth,low-income andgig workers, using central government funds Taylor WangEconomist, ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedtaylor.t.l.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 8650 Trade:New round of China-US talks withexport controlsin focus AfterChina-UStrade tensionsheated up in recent weeks on claims thateachside hadviolatedtheconsensus reached inGeneva tradetalks,a phone call betweenPresident Xiand President Trumpon5Juneappeared tosteer the situation back on track.Subsequently, in person high-level meetings were scheduled in Londonstarting from9June.Similartothe Geneva talks, the US delegationwasledby theUSTreasury SecretaryScott Bessent and the Chinese delegation is led by the Vice Premier He Lifeng, whilethistimetheUSCommerce Secretary Howard Lutnickand Chinese Minister of CommerceWentao Wang also joined.The US Department of CommerceoverseesUSexportcontrols,andhas rolled out a series ofrecentrestrictions targeting China,specifically onchip design software, aircraft engine parts, chemicals, and nuclear materials.Likewise, theChineseMinistryof Commerce is also responsible for approving rare earth export licenses.According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration may bepreparedto liftsome oftheserestrictionsin exchange for China relaxing its rare earth exportcontrols (Bloomberg,10June).BeforetheUS-China London talks,China announced it approvedsomerare earthexport license applications (Gov.cn,7June), reportedly going towardssome suppliers ofthe top three US automakers (Reuters, 6 June). Jing LiuChief Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk+852 3941 0063 Heidi LiAssociateGuangzhou Thesuccess ofChina-UStrade talkswill be more centred onstabilisingthe truce,though furtherreductions in export controls from both sides would be welcome.Theremay be less leeway to move on tariff rates at this juncturewithout more significantbreakthroughs on trade issues, which would likely take more time. How severe has the hit fromtrade tariffs been and will it improve?May trade datashoweda deeper fall in China’s exports to theUSdespite thereciprocal tariffpause, driven byfactors such as timing, inventory digestion and shipment availability(China trade,9 June).However, high-frequency data showedthat China’s container exports to theUShavestarted toreboundsince end-May, movingclosertothepre-tariff average levels inearlyJune (Chart 21).This suggestswe maybe past the trough from the US tariff hit, providedthetariff rate doesn’t rise substantially. Meanwhile, data from the US Customs and BorderProtection,showed that tariffs collected from China1in the January to April period reached25% oftheUS’ total Chinaimports(egeffective tariff rate), above the 8-9% in theprevious few years. Ultimately though, a lift inconfidencefor exportersstill hinges onclearer negotiating steps and an extended truce. HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosureappendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Structural policy:People’s livelihood policiesemphasise social service coverage Onthe domestic side, China is making longer-term moves. On9June, China released10-pointguidelines, aiming atsafeguarding andimproving people’s livelihoods(though the measuresweredatedin March and only released now).The policiesemphasised the improvement insocial welfare coverage, support for certain demographics including low-income groups, youthand gig workers, as well as improved coverage in education and health services (Xinhua, 9June). A subsequent press conference was held the following day on 10 June (SCIO, 10 June).New policies will include the rollout of a childcare subsidy system and increases in the minimumwage as well as ongoing implementation of already announced policies such asthe provision ofbasic public services based on permanent residence.The ratio of permanent residency in urbanareas is 67% versus 50% with household registrationwhichsuggestsabout300 million peoplecould benefit(SCTN, 10 June). While the implementation of these structural policies may still need time to roll out, especially atthe local government l