The next decade will be won by software companies that own AI Agent Marketplaces, as controlling how AI reaches the end user becomes the key strategic battleground. The age of AI agents—autonomous software capable of reasoning, planning, and acting on behalf of users and organizations—is upon us, with Gartner projecting agentic AI to be embedded in more than 50% of enterprise software products by 2027. McKinsey estimates that AI agents could automate up to 70% of business tasks currently requiring human interaction.
This represents a platform shift, similar to previous transitions from mainframe to PC, desktop to cloud, and web to mobile, which create new winners and render the unprepared obsolete. The core question for incumbent technology companies is whether they will own the agent distribution layer or risk becoming infrastructure for someone else.
Key data and findings:
- AI adoption: 23% of organizations are scaling agentic AI systems, and 88% use AI in at least one business function, with 62% experimenting and 23% scaling AI agents.
- Market impact: By 2028, $15 trillion of B2B spend will flow through AI agent exchanges, and 33% of enterprise software applications will include agentic AI.
- Value capture gap: While 88% of organizations use AI, only 39% report any enterprise-level EBIT impact, indicating adoption is broad but value capture is still being sorted out.
- Market growth: IDC estimates AI will contribute $19.9 trillion to the global economy through 2030, with $4.9 trillion in 2030 alone, driven by AI infrastructure and software demand.
Strategic recommendations for incumbents:
- Define an AI distribution strategy, not just an AI feature roadmap.
- Decide whether to own the customer-facing agent experience or become a high-value substrate inside someone else’s platform.
- Build an ecosystem early—store, exchange, partner model, APIs, governance, and monetization.
- Redesign workflows, not just interfaces.
- Set a 12–24 month decision horizon to avoid conceding the layer before your product is ready.
The industries most exposed are those with a concentrated system of record, high workflow volume, and user value that can be re-routed above the underlying application. Companies that control how agents are discovered, connected, trusted, and improved will shape enterprise software’s next decade, while others may remain relevant but from behind someone else’s interface.
