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Company Update China Retail /Wholesale Trade Jul-26 Performance: WeaknessContinues; All eyes on 1H26 earnings SammiXu ResearchAnalyst+852-2203-5415 WetrackPopMart'sChinaonlinesalesusingMoojinge-commercedataforTmall/ TaobaoandDouyin.InJuly,salesfell another21%YoYdespitethelaunchofLabubu4.0andnewreleasesfromDimooandSkullpanda.Basedonourtracker,Pop Mart's online sales have been declining since May, suggesting domesticdemandisweakening in Q2 despitean activenewproductpipeline. In 1H26, China online sales grew 27%YoY according to our tracker, largelysupportedbystrongChineseNewYearsalesin1Q26,whichthecompanyreportedat+150-155%YoY.However,iftheJune/Julyrun-ratepersists,China e-commercesalescoulddeclinebyatleast20%YoYin2H26,reinforcingourviewthatPopMartfacesmountingdomesticsalespressurefrom2Q26onward.AscollectibleIPiscyclicalbynature,webelievethatonceabrand entersadowncycle,thechance ofanear-termturnaround is limited. LatestlaunchesshowlimitedsocialmediatractionDespitehighpre-launch expectations,webelieve social mediadiscussion around Pop Mart has started to fade,consistent with the decline in secondary-marketprices.Some standard editionsof Labubu 4.0have fallen toaround RMB60 onsecondarytradingplatforms,a steepdiscounttotheRMB159retail price.Unlikeprevious versions,which soldoutinstantly onlineandtriggered hours-longofflinequeues,Labubu4.0remainswidely available acrosschannels.The rapidfall insecondary-marketpriceswithintwotothreedaysoflaunchpointstoweakerlaunchurgency and fading consumer interest in China.Discussion around other Julylaunches,includingDimooxPIXARandSkullpanda'sOffModeseries,alsoappearsmutedand largelyconfinedto corecollectors. In our view, this suggests Pop Mart-and the broader plush toy trend-may belosing traction among young consumers. If this continues, we believe it will bedifficult to reverse without a new product format or another celebrity-endorsed iPthat can reignite discussion and scarcity-driven demand. Retail /Wholesale TradePop Mart Chinese individual investorDuanYongPingownsover7%of PopMartthrough H&HInternational Investment.He accumulated the shares at HKs150-160 level.He firstdisclosed his ownership onMay5.On July30,his stakedeclined to5.55%due to option expiry,before rising again to7.7%on August 7 afterhe rolled theoptions.Accordingtohissocialmediapost,Duanbelievespoptoyshavesuperiorlong-termgrowthpotential despite near-termvolatility.As mostof his holdings areintended to be held for 10 years, he indicated that he does not plan to sell andremains positive on the company's long-term outlook. Given Duan's influenceamong southbound investors, we believe his ownership remains an importantsupport for sentiment. sSouthbound capital continues to represent a major PopMart will release its interim results on August 20th.Weforecast 1H26 revenue ofRMB18.2bn,up32%YoY,andadjustednetprofitofRMB6.0bn,up27%YoY.Thisimplies2Q26revenueofRMB8.3bn,uponly1.6%YoYanddown16.3%QoQ OntheAugust20earningscall atHKT5pm,weexpectinvestorstofocuson:1)thelatestFY26guidanceandmanagement'scommentsonglobal outlook; 2)operating deleverage and overseas margin trends; and 3) potential inventorypressure. For2H26,weexpectrevenuetoweakenversus1H26ratherthanfollowtheusualseasonality-driven increase consideringthe weakeningtrend globally inQ2.Weforecast2H26 revenueofRMB16.8bn and adjusted netprofit of RMB5.5bn, withboth sales and marginsunderfurtherpressure.ForFY26,weforecast revenue ofRMB35.0bn,down6%YoY,andadjustednetprofitofRMB11.4bn,down13%YoY.Ouradjusted netprofitestimate is around20%belowBloombergconsensus ofRMB14.3bn. Wemaintain our Sell ratingand HKs140targetprice,as we believe themarket stillunderestimates therisk offasterrevenue deceleration,greaterinventorypressure,and operating deleverage, which could result in weaker-than-expected earningsduring IP downcycle. Retail /Wholesale TradePop Mart Figure5:PopMart2025quarterlysalesbreakdown Figure6:PopMart2026quarterlyforecastbased onourmodel Retail /Wholesale TradePop Mart Retail/WholesaleTradePop Mart ChinaIPRetailer:IPOfflineSales(Jun2026):PopMartWeakensWhilePeersHoldUpPopMart:Jun-26Performance:SharpYoYdeclinedespiteLabubu4.0launchPopMart:2Q26Preview:FromScarcitytoSlowdownPop Mart:Early"Labubu4.0"Feedback Highlights Growing Risk of DemandFatigueChina IP Retailer : IP Offline Sales (May 2026): Holiday Demand Drives MoMRecoveryPopMart:May-26Performance:FirstNegativeYoYGrowthSince2024PopMart:Apr-26Performance:StableSales Driven ByKeyIPLaunchesPop Mart: Mar-26 Performance: Intense Product Launches & Home ApplianceFocusPopMart: 1Q26 review:overseas decline continues,overshadowing China strengthPopMart:2025solid,2026outlookunassuredPop Mart: Marketing feedback on Pop MartPopMart:After the hypePopMart:Labubu'savailability:adouble-edgedswordforitsfashiontrend Retail /Wholesale TradePop Mart Pop Mart dominates China's pop toy market as its largest and fastest-growing player, with proprietary productsaccounting for over 90% of its revenue. The compan