稳 字当头 创新加速2026年上半年债券市场热点聚焦与展望

Language: zh-Han00:03:49.520 --> 00:03:50.233大家好，00:03:50.233 --> 00:03:55.225欢迎收看新世纪评级2026年第二期总监时间。00:03:55.225 --> 00:03:59.029本期总监时间研讨的主题是稳字当头，00:03:59.029 --> 00:04:05.340创新加速2026年上半年债券市场热点聚焦及展望。00:04:05.340 --> 00:04:10.360首先为大家介绍一下参与本期总监时间的各位嘉宾。00:04:10.360 --> 00:04:14.240工商企业二部总经理高级分析师黄蔚飞。00:04:14.240 --> 00:04:15.316大家好。00:04:15.316 --> 00:04:18.906公共融资评级总监助理。00:04:18.906 --> 00:04:19.983刘道恒，00:04:19.983 --> 00:04:21.060大家好。00:04:21.060 --> 00:04:24.868金融结构评级副总监熊荣萍。00:04:24.868 --> 00:04:25.820大家好。00:04:25.960 --> 00:04:29.012结构融资部高级分析师张庆华，00:04:29.247 --> 00:04:29.951大家好，00:04:29.951 --> 00:04:32.769 我是本期总监时间的主持人，00:04:32.769 --> 00:04:34.413研发总监戴晓枫。00:04:34.413 --> 00:04:35.587今年上半年，00:04:35.587 --> 00:04:41.222全球经济金融受地缘政治事件的冲击产生了剧烈的波动，00:04:41.222 --> 00:04:43.336主要经济体低速增长，00:04:43.336 --> 00:04:45.996新旧产业景气度持续分化，00:04:45.996 --> 00:04:49.810高油价给全球通胀水平带来了压力，00:04:49.810 --> 00:04:52.861部分经济体进入了加息周期。00:04:52.861 --> 00:04:53.624上半年，00:04:53.624 --> 00:04:56.929我国GDP同比增长4.7%，00:04:56.929 --> 00:04:59.980符合全年经济增长预期目标，00:05:00.000 --> 00:05:02.112在十五五的开局之年，00:05:02.112 --> 00:05:06.570平稳地应对了国际国内错综复杂的政治形势。00:05:06.570 --> 00:05:07.744分季度来看，00:05:07.744 --> 00:05:11.968二季度同比增速由一季度的5.0%00:05:11.968 --> 00:05:14.080回落至4.3%，00:05:14.080 --> 00:05:21.080这也表明经济增长压力在国际国内的复杂形势下还是有所加大的。00:05:21.080 --> 00:05:21.580但是， 00:05:21.580 --> 00:05:24.080经济发展总体稳中向新，00:05:24.080 --> 00:05:26.080新旧动能加速转换，00:05:26.080 --> 00:05:29.646我国经济的K型分化特征比较明显。00:05:29.646 --> 00:05:30.359一方面，00:05:30.359 --> 00:05:35.114在AI超级周期和全球能源转型浪潮的推动下，00:05:35.114 --> 00:05:39.631高新技术产业和服务业等新动能景气度高升。00:05:39.631 --> 00:05:40.582另一方面，00:05:40.582 --> 00:05:46.052承载着大量劳动力的传统制造业和服务业则持续承压，00:05:46.052 --> 00:05:48.908货币政策保持了适度的宽松，00:05:48.908 --> 00:05:50.574市场流动性充裕，00:05:50.574 --> 00:05:52.955社会融资条件较为宽松。00:05:52.955 --> 00:05:57.240上半年我国社融增量为20.84万亿元，00:05:57.240 --> 00:05:58.983同比少增2万亿，00:05:58.983 --> 00:06:04.693主要原因因是微观主体融资需求不足导致的贷款少增，00:06:04.693 --> 00:06:07.657以及政府债券发行节奏偏缓。00:06:07.657 --> 00:06:09.386从融资结构来看，00:06:09.386 --> 00:06:11.856直接融资占比持续提升，00:06:11.856 --> 00:06:15.067 其中企业债券净融资明显增加，00:06:15.067 --> 00:06:17.784同比多增近9200亿元，00:06:17.784 --> 00:06:21.360有力的支撑了实体经济的融资需求。00:06:21.360 --> 00:06:22.999那债券市场方面，00:06:22.999 --> 00:06:25.808我国债券市场运行总体平稳，00:06:25.808 --> 00:06:30.490上半年共计发行各类债券43.58万亿元。00:06:30.490 --> 00:06:33.767尽管受同业存单发行下滑的影响，00:06:33.767 --> 00:06:35.640出现了小幅的下降，00:06:35.640 --> 00:06:42.272但是产业债资产支持证券、金融债等券种的发行增长是非常明显的，00:06:42.272 --> 00:06:47.720非金融企业债券净融资规模也相应的出现了大幅增长，00:06:47.720 --> 00:06:50.907实体经济的融资渠道保持畅通，00:06:50.907 --> 00:06:52.869融资成本有所下降。00:06:52.869 --> 00:06:53.604可以说，00:06:53.604 --> 00:06:59.980稳字当头是债券市场与宏观经济整体运行情况较为一致的特。00:07:00.244 --> 00:07:01.711么在另一方面，00:07:01.711 --> 00:07:05.866在平稳发展中不断创新且创新速度加快，00:07:05.866 --> 00:07:08.800则是债券市场的另一大特征。00:07:08.800 --> 00:07:14.826比如说今年5月份债市科技板迎来了正式推出一周年， 00:07:14.826 --> 00:07:16.923相关政策积极利好。00:07:16.923 --> 00:07:21.640科创债在上半年也延续了火热的发行态势，00:07:21.640 --> 00:07:23.590发行主体加速扩容，00:07:23.590 --> 00:07:28.711绿色债券、转型债券等可持续债券也在不断的创新，00:07:28.711 --> 00:07:30.418发行量实现翻番。00:07:30.418 --> 00:07:35.295金融类和结构化产品的市场政策也在持续创新。00:07:35.295 --> 00:07:44.550接下来我们请各位嘉宾对今年跟踪期内各业务板块的运行情况以及市场热点进行详细的分析。00:07:44.550 --> 00:07:47.360首先我们来看一下产业债板块，00:07:47.360 --> 00:07:50.386请问一下工商二部的黄蔚飞黄总，00:07:50.602 --> 00:07:54.276上半年产业债的发行有一个明显的增长，00:07:54.276 --> 00:07:56.654净融资规模也在大幅增加，00:07:56.654 --> 00:07:59.680这在传统信用债中表现非常突出。00:07:59.680 --> 00:08:02.157王总能否为我们做一下具体。00:08:02.157 --> 00:08:02.982的分析呢？00:08:02.982 --> 00:08:03.395王总，00:08:03.602 --> 00:08:04.015好的，00:08:04.015 --> 00:08:04.840谢谢戴总。 00:08:04.840 --> 00:08:07.111在稳中有新的发展基调下，00:08:07.111 --> 00:08:11.240债券市场对实体经济的精准赋能效应持续释放，00:08:11.240 --> 00:08:15.520最直观的体现便是产业类直接融资的稳步扩容。00:08:15.520 --> 00:08:18.088相关数据也印证了这一趋势。00:08:18.088 --> 00:08:19.37226年上半年，00:08:19.372 --> 00:08:26.007银行间市场和交易所市场新增产业债发行规模同比增长3.67%，00:08:26.007 --> 00:08:27.720达到4.9万亿元，00:08:27.720 --> 00:08:30.405净融资额为1.73万亿元，00:08:30.405 --> 00:08:33.090同比增加了0.59万亿元。00:08:33.090 --> 00:08:33.537其中，00:08:33.537 --> 00:08:38.460二季度市场新增产业债发行规模为2.52万亿元，00:08:38.740 --> 00:08:41.595较上年同期减少640亿元，00:08:41.595 --> 00:08:43.792降幅为2.48%。00:08:43.792 --> 00:08:47.086但由于本息偿付金额同比降幅更大，00:08:47.086 --> 00:08:53.331当期净融资额同比增长了1471亿元至0.81万亿元，00:08:53.331 --> 00:08:55.877增幅达到了22%，00:08:55.877 --> 00:08:59.580延续自2024年以来的净融入状态。00:08:59.580 --> 00:09:02.077 那从行业分布来看的话，00:09:02.077 --> 00:09:07.573上半年产业债发行额居前的行业主要集中在三大类，00:09:07.573 --> 00:09:11.820一是电热、汽水及交运等公用事业类企业，00:09:12.120 --> 00:09:14.280二是建筑施工类企业，00:09:14.280 --> 00:09:16.440三是综合集团类企业。00:09:16.440 --> 00:09:16.920其中，00:09:16.920 --> 00:09:21.720公用事业类企业所募资金除偿还到期债务以外，00:09:21.720 --> 00:09:31.523主要用于能源保供与绿色转型、水利及环保基础设施、交通与市政管网升级等领域。00:09:31.523 --> 00:09:32.100好的，00:09:32.100 --> 00:09:33.452那据我们了解，00:09:33.677 --> 00:09:41.340产业债发行大幅增长的主要原因还是在于债市科技板对科创债发行的大力支持。00:09:41.340 --> 00:09:46.484那么上半年市场上具体有哪些政策在支持产业债的发行呢？00:09:46.484 --> 00:09:47.513请黄总继续。00:09:47.513 --> 00:09:48.542为我们解读。00:09:48.748 --> 00:09:49.160好的，00:09: