生猪周报：出栏暂平稳，现货温和反弹

期货研究报告 2026年8月16日 报告日期： 商品研究 报告内容摘要: 走势评级：生猪——短期震荡 张秀峰从业资格证号:F0289189投资咨询证号:Z0011152联系电话:0571-28132619邮箱:zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 母猪&仔猪：官方数据显示，2026年6月末全国能繁母猪存栏数据为3780万头，相比前期高点4080万头累计去化7.35%。此外，样本企业仔猪出生量6月末数据为577.02万头，连续四个月下降，中长期来看，生猪供应峰值大概率出现在9-10月。 行业利润：本周猪价上行带动养殖亏损收窄，自繁修复优于外购，大猪托价、但标猪充裕制约涨幅，行业暂未整体盈利。目前自繁、外购仔猪头均分别亏153.75元、248.08元。 近期资讯：牧原股份七月商品猪出栏666.1万头，环比+6.97%，同比+4.82%；均价10.64元/公斤，环比大涨9.80%；温氏股份肉猪出栏274.21万头，环比+6.66%，同比-13.36%；均价10.80元/公斤，环比涨12.27%；新希望商品猪出栏122.56万头，环比-2.30%（小幅控量)，同比+30.01%；均价10.42元/公斤，环比涨11.44%。 结论：谨慎观望，中长期的供应峰值或将在9-10月 操作建议：观望为主 风险提示：猪瘟导致加速去化 信达期货有限公司CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼邮编：311200 目录 一、本周盘面回顾.............................................................................................4二、供给.....................................................................................................6三、需求&库存................................................................................................7四、母猪产能.................................................................................................8五、利润.....................................................................................................8六、饲料价格&猪粮比........................................................................................9七、各地基差、地区价差......................................................................................10八、猪周期走势..............................................................................................11免责声明.....................................................................................................12评级说明.....................................................................................................12【信达期货简介】.............................................................................................13 图目录 图1：生猪一月合约季节性走势（元/吨)...........................................................................4图2：生猪三月合约季节性走势（元/吨)...........................................................................4图3：生猪五月合约季节性走势（元/吨)...........................................................................4图4：生猪七月合约季节性走势（元/吨)...........................................................................4图5：生猪九月合约季节性走势（元/吨)...........................................................................4图6：生猪11月合约季节性走势（元/吨)..........................................................................4图7：lh2611市场机构净持仓....................................................................................5图8：生猪加权指数与持仓量.....................................................................................5图9：期货合约11-1价差........................................................................................5图10：期货合约11-3价差.......................................................................................5图11：期货合约1-3价差........................................................................................5图12：期货合约1-5价差........................................................................................5图13：商品猪出栏价(元/公斤)...................................................................................6图14：猪价对应仔猪价格变化趋势（元/头）.......................................................................6图15：淘汰母猪价格(元/公斤)...................................................................................6图16：标肥价差(元/千克).......................................................................................6图17：商品猪出栏均重(千克)....................................................................................6图18：仔猪成活率%.............................................................................................6图19：仔猪出生量(万头)........................................................................................7图20：白毛价差（元/公斤）.....................................................................................7图21：屠宰开工率%.............................................................................................7图22：猪肉鲜销率%.............................................................................................7图23：样本企业商品猪存栏(万头)................................................................................7图24：猪肉冻品库容率%.........................................................................................7图25：全国能繁母猪存栏（万头）................................................................................8图26：母猪PSY................................................................................................8图27：行业养殖利润（元/头）...................................................................................8图28：屠宰利润（元/头）.......................................................................................8图29：全国玉米均价（元/吨）...................................................................................9图30：猪粮比..................................................................................................9 图31：豆粕价格（元/吨）.......................................................................................9图32：河南基差（元/吨）......................................................................................10图3