AI资本开支升温，无放缓迹象

UnitedStates boom is generating positive second-order effects across the economy, i) through wealth effects, and ii) by boosting manufacturing production and employment in Al-relatedindustries and data-center construction. These factors reinforce the resilience of the USeconomy even in the face of potentially higher-for-longer interest ratesThe week ahead: FOMC minutes, IP, housing data US EconomicsBofAS US EconomistBofAS +1 646 855 9929aditya.bhave@bofa.comStephen JuneauUS EconomistBofAS calendar. We also get Jul industrial production (Tue) and a lot of housing data: the Aug +1 202 442 7429stephen.juneau@bofa.comShruti MishraUS EconomistBofAS NAHB Index (Mon), and Jul housing starts, building permits and pending home sales(Tue). Other releases include Aug Empire Manufacturing (Mon), Jul import and exportprices (which could marginally impact our PCE inflation estimates, Tue), and the AugPhilly Fed Index (Thu). There is no Fedspeak on the calendar at the time of this writing.July FOMC minutes: how many hawks? Sep hike threshold? +1 646 855 1040smishra44@bofa.comSee Team Page for List of AnalystsGlossary The July FOMC minutes will be stale because the soft July jobs and inflation data sincethe Fed meeting have considerably reduced market pricing of hikes. Still, we will be looking toget a sense of how many FOMC participants (besides the threedissenters)wanted a hike or would at least have been willing to go along with one. We're alsocurious about the committee's thresholds for a September move, though we wouldn'texpect anything too specific on this front.Datareview:softJul datagivetheFedbreathingroom CPI: Consumer Price IndexPMI: Purchasing Managers' IndexPPI: Producer Price IndexNFP: Nonfarm payrollsLFPR: Labor force participation ratePCE: Personal Consumption ExpendituresFOMC: Federal Open Markt CommitteeGDP: Gross Domestic ProductSF: Seasonal FactorSA: Seasonally AdjustedSEP: Summary of Economic ProjectionsMA: Moving AverageHH: HouseholdU-rate: Unemployment RateJOLTS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover SurveyGov't: Govermment Based on this week's CPI and PPI data, we project a O.22% increase in the core PCE in July. This isn't a great number at first blush - it annualizes to 2.7% -but roughly half ofit was due to a spike in portfolio management, which should get revised lower in the Sep30 methodology update. With payrolls also declining in July, markets have substantiallypriced out Fed hikes. For now, we are sticking with our call for 75bp of rate increasesthis year, starting in Sep. But risks have clearly shifted toward later/fewer hikes. report will be released on September 4. Al capex is picking up steamStephen Juneau BofAS estimates continue to get revised higher and should rise again in 2027. economy, i) through wealth effects, and ii) by boosting manufacturing productionand employment in Al-related industries and data-center construction. potentially higher-for-longer interest rates. Al capex shows no signs of slowing downWe are now in the fifth week of earnings season and have received updates from the major Al hyperscalers: Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle. Savita Subramanianand our equity strategy team note that the latest earnings releases confirm that thecapex cycle remains firmly on track and, if anything, appears to be accelerating.Consensus estimates imply that aggregate capex among these firms will rise by 91%this year, followed by a further 35% increase next year. Focusing only on the hyperscalers also understates the breadth of the capex cycle, asfirms across the economy are investing heavily in Al infrastructure and capabilities tokeep pace with their competitors (Exhibit 1). In short, this investment cycle has anshould continue to be a substantial tailwind to economic growth. Indeed, the growth impulse from the Al buildout is tracking above our initial estimate ofa O.4pp contribution this year (See report: Global Economic Viewpoint: Al Matters #1:The tip of the Al-ceberg? 19 March 2026). We estimate that Al-related investmentcontributed an average of about O.6pp to annualized growth in the first half of the year,equivalent to roughly one-third of overall 1H GDP growth (Exhibit 2). That is asubstantial contribution, particularly given that the relevant investment categoriesaccount foronly around 2.6% of nominal GDP. Exhibit 1: Hyperscalers' capex is expected to grow >90% YoY, anacceleration from73% in 2025S&P 500 and hyperscalers (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, ORCL) actual and Exhibit 2:After adjusting for imports, Alcapex has contributed about60bp to 1H26 growth or around 1/3rd of total growthContribution to growth from Al related capex consensus capex (Sbn) investment should remain an important growth impulse in 2027.The firms leading thecycle are generating strong cash flow, have healthy balance sheets, and face powerfulstrategic incentives to invest today rather than risk falling behind their peers. Thatshould make the investment relatively insensitive t