大宗商品：黄金爆发阶段

August2026 Michael Hsueh | +65 64237510 | michael.hsueh@db.com Diversificationandinflationoutpertormance Long run real-terms appreciation; level is not stationary Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Gold ratios to commodity prices Avg $2,570 gold price indicated by ratios Gold in explosive phase persists Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Goid 5ypertormance after explosve conditiohs Avg positive returns are higher, more frequent Gold compressed range compared to test statistic Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Gold fair value likely to point hlgher Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Moresubduedbehaviourin2o2bversusUsD China import has been significant support Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Goldtoollcohnectionhasbeenlessdurable Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Dedollarisation more evident amongst public investors Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank gold Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Reserve managers' buying at new high in USD terms Comparing total to IMF-reported CB demand Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Simpleformulaof goldavailabilityinChina =Goldproduction+imports-Demand(bar,coinjewelleryETF,Industrial,IMFreportedofficialdemand) China may hold 25% of reserves in gold Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank US current account has improved from -4.5% to -3.0% Riskreversals:Goldsentimentbouncedback Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank GlobalEF Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Source: Bloomberg Finance LP,Deutsche Bank Goldexpehsveihrealterms Source: Bloomberg Finance LP,Deutsche Bank Narrative The argument is that a silver re-rating is aphenomenon associated with the late stageof a gold market rally. Investors observeXAUXAG as over-extended to the upside,and aim to participate in a silver catch-uptrade. Once silver catches up, then generalinvestor attention (and risk capital) moveselsewhere. The difficulty is that like othermeasures of bubble characteristics, it doesnot suggest any specific start or endingpoint for a correction. Cehtralbahksang-count asinelasticdemand Source: Bloomberg Finance LP,Deutsche Bank Large downswing in E I F activity Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Evidence of silver tightness has deflated Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank LeaseratesinPGMsdetlated Palladium Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank And continued positive relationship to eguities Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Negative skew in future performance above 2o% spotmove in 2wks Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Negative skew in future performance above 2o% spotmove on daily closes (we did not reach this threshold) Gold's capaclty to absorb dversiticatiloh tlow, voiumemore relevant than value of accumulated stocks Daily gold prices in inflation adjusted termsGold prices in 2026 US dollars Historical declines in gold associatedwith1Exceptional USD strength (1981- 1984,+77%inUSDindexfromend1980-Feb'85)andinflationmoderation from 14%2)Fed hawkish surprises andtightening (from below ZLB in2013, and post-pandemic 2021-2022 cycle) Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Jewellerydemahdsdown Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Global FX reserves at standstill, but gold purchaseshigher Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Core of long term gold model is govt debt expansion Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Us debt growth Goldmodelarvers Gold-macro-policy plcture Schematic explains gold negative reaction Source:Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Poland, Turkey, China adding most gold WGC's estimate takes IMF data as starting point Central banks' share of gold above ground is in factfalling; long way to go to reach prior levels Should CB coordinate gold purchases? Proposition 1 (P,): There is no interest in preventing goldappreciation.Proposition 2 (P2): Acceptable upperthreshold of goldappreciationwas not reached. Maybeirrelevant questionbecauseof challenges:Coordination:Unlimited numberofpotential buyersPolitical/strategicalignment is potentiallylackingTransparency of flows-i.e.,howtoenforce&verify And given chart to left, there is no appearance that central banks arebecomingtoodominant China E I Fs now significant Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank MoredetailonChinaETF tonnes to drive 1% gold px chg Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank stabilise physical investment demand Gold mine production has iong lag to gold price Source: World Gold Council, Bloomberg Finance LP Recycled gold supply likely short of regression Source: World Go