HBM规格调整、资本回报、现货行情与多家厂商融资

returns, spot rally, SIMO/Phison fundingIndustryOverview HBM content growth on track; no despec GlobalTechnology Three reasons:1) upcoming HBM4e /HBM5 (2027-30) is already set for 500-1,000GBbased on 12-hi or 16-hi; 2) TSV capacity for 8-hi (for 192GB) is no longer meaningful (already converted to 12-hi)as of 2H26; and 3) Rubin Ultra's memory performancedeclines sharply at 288-500GB, making 1,000GB of memory a must-have, particularly forphysical Al.Of course, some low-end GPU/TPU/ASIC can use 192-288GB HBM.However,these will likelybe legacy applications like DDR4 (vs DDR5) or just for inferencing. Wealso disagree with SK Hynix's HBM price-cut view; in fact, we already see 10-20% pricehikes for 2H HBM4 deliveries, incl. pull-in demand from 1H27.Net-net, HBM growththemewill bemore effective with content and ASPhikes through 2H26&2027.Early2026shareholderreturnsfromSamsungandHynix Simon Woo, CFA >>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul) simon.woo@bofa.comDai Shen >Research AnalystMerilI Lynch (Hong Kong) dai.shen@bofa.comVivek AryaResearch AnalystBofAS vivek.arya@bofa.comMikio Hirakawa >>Research AnalystBofAS Japan Samsung Electronics should announce the payment date for its special dividend and theshare-buyback period as soon as possible, given the CFO noted in 2Q earnings call (30 July) that details will be shared "very soon". SK Hynix has also been guiding 50% payoutratio (out of FCF). Both companies have 3-4mn+ retail shareholders, who appear to beexpecting earlier year-end dividend payments (50%+/- of total in 2H26 vs the rest in1H27) to have tax benefits (e.g., year-end dividend income split into two years). Our viewon shareholder-return mix ratio (based on 50% of 2026FCF; FCF total: Samsung~W28Otn/Hynix~W170tn according to our analysis)remains unchanged (Samsung:60%+ cash dividend vs 40% or less for buyback; Hynix: 40:60 likely-buyback should bemore importantvsdividendstoissuenewADR oronly~20%stake ownedbySKSquare)Spot-pricerallycontinues;betterthanexpected mikio.hirakawa@bofa.comMatt Shin >>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul) matt.shin2@bofa.com DRAM spot prices continued to rise this week (+2% forboth 16Gb DDR4 and DDR5; a rising trend for 18 consecutive weeks). Surprisingly, the NAND spot rally was morenotable (e.g., 1Tb up 10% Wow) vs consensus (flat or gradual decline). Our channel checkalso indicates stronger spot demand (among OEMs and module makers) amid tight chipsupply. That said, we see slightly muted Korea's semis exports for the first 10 days ofAug (-11% MoM), although YoY growth remained robust (+155% YoY) Phison (8299 TT) issued USs0.8bn CB (3% dilution) in May, despite record-high 2Q sales (NT$68bn +279% YoY) and GM (65% vs long-term historical average of 30% range).Silicon Motion (SIMO US) also raised USs1.Obn by issuing CB (but minimal dilution givennew share issue amount can be close to stock-performance-linked conversion gains),The cash proceeds will be used for NAND chip inventory build ups, more specificallystrongly growing enterprise solutions.Our 2026-28 EPS estimates for Phison are mostlyunchanged, given upbeat sales/GM are mostly offset by high R&D expenses. ADR: American depositary receiptASP: Average selling priceASIC: Application-specific integrated circuitCB: Convertible bondCFO: Chief Financial OfficerDDR4/5: 4th/5th gen double-data rate DRAMGM: Gross marginDRAM: Dynamic random-access memoryHBM: High bandwidth memoryHBM4/4e/5: 6th/7th/8th gen of HBMGb/GB/Tb: Gigabit/Gigabyte/TerabitGPU: Graphics processing unitNAND: Not-AND memoryOEM: Original equipment manufacturerTPU: Tensor processing unitTSV: Through-silicon via (2027-30) is already set for 500-1,000GB based on 12-hi or 16-hi; 2) TSV capacity for 8-hi (for 192GB) is no longer meaningful (already convertedto 12-hi) as of 2H26; and 3) Rubin Ultra's memory performance declines sharply at 288-500GB, making 1,000GB of memory a must-have,particularly for physical Al.Rubin Ultra's new Spec shows 192GB/288GB vs original roadmap of 1TB HBM#of HBMStackDRAM dieHBM Exhibit 4: Still strongly up in Aug (+155% YoY); already sevenconsecutive months of positive growthKorea semis exports - YoY change in first 10 days of month Exhibit 3: Dropped 11% MoM in Aug (US$9.95bn), but still near recordhigh levelKorea semis exports -First 10 days of month USSbn Source: MoTIR Exhibit 7: Exceptionally strong MoM growth seen for Nanya (+49%), Nanya, Phison, ADATA, Transcend, Winbond; TSMC also solid at 45%Taiwan tech companies' monthly sales YoY in Jul-26YoY Winbond (+30%), Nanya PCB (+16%), Hon Hai (+15%),Taiwan tech companies' monthly sales MoM in Jul-26 60%MoM % Exhibit 9: AI ecosystem module (eSSD, aiDAPTIV, boot drive, etc)accounted for38% of total sales, followed by embedded ODM (33%),industrial (16%), controller (6%), etcPhison Sales mix by application (2Q26) Exhibit 13:DRAM spot prices rebounded through June after softening through April-May,following a strong rally from September2025 to January 2026 Prices have