PCB及覆铜板行业：CCL价格上涨非担忧，买入欣兴电子&健鼎科技

CCLprice hike not a concern; Buys on Gold Circuit and Tripod PCB sectorhassufferedfromconcernsoverGMpressurefromCCLprice hikesfromJune.AsperourdiscussionwithGoldCircuit (GCE)andTripod,webelievePcBmakerswillbeabletoraiseprices,ascustomersnowwouldneedtoleveragePCBmakersrelationshipswithCCLsuppliersinordertosecuremoreCCLsupplies.WhileGCEsufferedfromthepressure in2Q26thecompanywouldhikethepricestoitscustomersin3Q26asTripoddoesWeseebothnamesbenefittingfromfavorableproductmixandpricehikesinthecomingquarters.BuyonGCE(TPNT$1,630)andTripod(TPNT$700). +886-2-8726-9091jack1.chen@citi.comLaura (Chia Yi) Chen +886-2-8726-9090laura.cy.chen@citi.comNicholas Lai GCE:2Q26GMmissonCCLpricehike-GCE's2Q26sales(+26%QoQ)weredrivenbyserversegment(+36%QoQ),whilenetworkingsegmentdeclined6%QoQ.2Q26GMposted34.7%(-0.2pptQoQ)，missingCiti/consensusforecastsby2.Oppt/1.4ppt duetotimelagtoreflect CCLpricehike,risingdepreciationonnewcapacityrampandlikelylessnetworkingsales.OPEXratiowas0.2%higherQoQ,duetomore employeeprofit-sharingexpense.DespiteGM/OPMmiss,thanks tolowertax rate,overall2Qearningswas inlinewithCitiforecast and 4%higherthanconsensus forecasts.Thailandplantturned profitable in 2Q26,as per mgmt. +886-2-8726-9093nicholas.lai@citi.com GcE:3Q26outlook:ASICdemandrampingup—Backedbyhigherproductionvalueon increasingAsPandnewcapacityadded (especiallyinThailand plant),wenowforecast3Q26salestogrow16%QoQ.Despitethemarket'sconcernoverGMpressurefromCCLpricehike,mgmt.indicatedcustomershaveagreedwiththePCBpricehikesandbelieveGMwouldn'tbenegativelyimpacted.Besides,ASiCdemandrampandbetterpricingwouldhelpmorethanoffsettherisingdepreciationandFXheadwinds,driving itsGMprofile in3Q26,aspermgmt.For GM,wenowforecastguidancefrom32%to29%duetoreceiptoftaxbenefits. GCE:NewASICdemand likelytorampin4Q26;preparingforHDI-ForitsnewAlASiC business,the company now seesgoodchanceto securetheproject;in new capacity,targeting ramp-up in 2H27.Mgmt.is confident in its HDIproducts.Fornewcapacityrampedin2027,ThailandandSuzhouplantsareplannedto ramp in 2H27. weredrivenbytheserversegment(+40%QoQ),followedbyauto(+13%QoQ)andmemory（+5%Qo).2Q26GM expanded3.6pptQoQto30.1%,beatingCiti/consensus forecasts by 1.8ppt/2.8ppt.Mgmt.attributed GMupbeat toenhanced product mixand price hiketo reflect inflation.OP levels also saw betterleverageQoQ,beatingCiti/consensusforecastsby14%/18%,whilehightaxratewasmore of a one-off.Overall earnings were still a beat by 4%/8% vs Citi/consensusforecasts.Tripod:3Q26outlook:servercontinuingpickingup-As teir-1PCBmakers focus more on leading Al server boards,Tripod sees more outflowing demand for eithergeneral-purpose server mainboard or ASiC CPU mainboard.The company expectsits3Q26wouldbedriven by continued serverdemand and pricehike (especiallyforautocustomers).Thus,wenowforecastTripod's3Q26Esalestogrow13%QoQ.ForGM,weforecast3Q26EGMof31.2%(+1.1pptQoQ).Formemorydemand,thecompanynowseesmomentumgainingin2H26vs1H26. think CCLpricehikewouldbecomean issueforitsGMprofile,as customers inneedare fully aware of the CCL shortage and would accept PCB price hikes.Besides,customers now would need to leverage PCB makers'relationships withCCLtiering and large scale.For its CCL supply,mgmt.thinks its supply is tight now butthecompanyis ramping its Vietnam plant and is likelyto see limited contribution in2H26,and is expandingits capacity inHubeiplants. Earnings revisions; GCE's TP slightly cut to NT$1,63O;Tripod's TP liftedtoNT$700;Buyonbothnames—ForGCE,weadjustour2026/27/28Eearningsby1%/+2%/+3%tofactorinshort-termCCLpricehikeimpactbutlowertaxrate.WecutourGCETPtoNT$1,630(25x2027EEPS)fromNT$1,740(26x2027EEPS).ForTripod,we increaseour2026/27E/28Eearningsby+10%/+4%/+4%tofactorin itsstronger GM profile.We raise our DCF-based Tripod TP to NT$7OO (implied 18x2027E)fromNT$666(implied17x2027EEPS).Weseebothnamesbenefittingfromfavorableproductmix and pricehikes in the coming quarters.We rateboth Tripodand GCE Buy. Source: dataCentral, Citi Research Source: dataCentral, Citi Research Bull/Bear: Tripod Technology (3044.TW) Founded in1981,Gold CircuitElectronics(GCE)is a Taiwanese company specializing in the production of printed circuit board (PCB)including doublesided PCB,multi-layer PCB,and HDI.GCE'sproductsprimarilyfocus onapplicationsofservers,networking,laptops,basestations,mobilephones,andtablets.The companyis known forits high-layer count designcapabilities (maximum layercount:+5OL)inthePCBindustry,which help ittopenetrate into more high-end applications such as Al servers and 400Gnetworking.Currently,server/networkingaccountsfor+70%ofitstotalsalesThe companyhasfourplants,with onelocated in Taiwan and the otherthreein China,and plans to build oneplantin Thailand. Investmentstrategy We rate GCEa Buyas webelieve itshigh-techcapabilities inserver/networkingdesignwillallowitto catchmoreAl opportunitiesfromUSCSPsorUSIC designersintheAlboomcycle.Weexpect itsrisingsalesexposuretoward high-endapplications withbettermargins and improvingUTRto driveitsmargingoing