收益引发恐错过心理，上行空前倾斜

Earnings rekindle FOMO An exceptional grab for upside drove record flattening in callskews. Comparing earnings momentum with recentperformance in EU, we identify fundamental leaders/laggards+ catch-up/de-rating opportunities. In US, hedge small capsas their leadership is increasingly at odds with fundamentals. Anshul Gupta +44 (0) 20 7773 0430anshul.gupta@barclays.comBarclays, UKStefano Pascale +12125267983stefano.pascale@barclays.comBCI, US toaclose,not all priceaction appearsequallysupportedbyfundamentals.Comparingearningsmomentum with beta-adjusted performance, European Banks and Technology remainfundamental leaders, while our screen (see Figure 7) identifies a range of catch-up and de-ratingopportunities beneath the surface.Amongthetop-ranked candidates,Telefonica,Prudentialand Legrand stand out as catch-up candidates,favoringcalls,call/call spreads and call spreads,respectively.Conversely, Legal & General, Iberdrola and Pernod Ricard emerge as potential de-rating candidates, favouring put spreads, put spreads and outright puts. At the index level, theDAX remains a notable European laggard. While this has largely reflected subdued earningsmomentum, improving PMis and growth surprises point to potential for a more supportiveearnings backdrop ahead, reinforcing the case for DAX upside. +12125265530zhiyuan.fan@barclays.comBCI, US Shobhit Mishra+91 (0)22 6175 3536shobhit.mishra@barclays.comBarclays, UK Smallcaps,bigperformance:timetohedge:We recentlyarguedthatsmall-capoutperformance looks increasingly disconnectedfrom fundamentals.Yet the Russell 20oo is up21% YTD, well ahead of the S&P500 and Nasdaq (Not such a big deal).Indeed, our analysisshows that even accountingforthe disproportionate Al exposure during the last quarter, smallcaps outperformance vs the S&P/Nasdaqstill appears extreme. Moreover,the Al tailwind mayfadefollowing the June Russell rebalance, which reduced the weight of Al disruptors as severalhigh-flying names graduated into larger-cap indices. With IWM volatility remaining among thecheapest across popularhedging options, we continue to favor IwM put spreads:buy IWM Oct26295 puts (39-delta) and sell IWM Oct26 270 puts for1.7% and a max expiry payout ratio of 4.9-to-1. Charts of the Week: +Skews collapse, buttailsremain bid:favor down-and-out puts &appearing put spreads+Theearnings disconnect:strong Results,weakreactions→Gold'supsidechaseawaitsCPIvalidation+NVDAearningssteal theshow+Equity euphoria falls belowdoubledigitsdespite sharp rally Click hereforthefull listofourtraderecommendations Barclays Capital Inc.and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and importantdisclosures beginning on page10.Completed: 11-Aug-26, 02:07 GMT Released: 11-Aug-26, 04:10 GMTRestricted-External performance diverge as the bulk ofearnings season has delivered a supportive backdropforequities,the worst of themomentum sell-off appears to be behindus, and concerns aroundtheIran-driven stagflationshock have faded (Figure 1). Macro data has also turned more constructive, with growthsurprises rebounding and inflation pressures easing from recent highs. PMis point to activityholding up well through Q2 and gaining momentum into Q3, particularly in Germany and theperiphery (Figure 2),as echoed byour economists in'Euro Area Outlook,7-Aug'.Together,resilient earnings,improving growth momentum and a more supportive positioning backdrophave underpinned the recent rally. Beneath the rally,important divergences remain: Most major equity markets have ralliedstrongly overthe pasttwo weeks,led bythe Us.Yet, the DAX remains a notable Europeanlaggard despite recent gains, while the RTY stands out as the best-performing major US indexYTD (Figure 3),reinforcing our DAX catch-up (see here) and RTY hedge (see here)themes.Optionsmarkets havemirrored this shift in sentiment,as investors haveaggressively chasedupside,driving a near-unprecedented flattening in call skew across both Europe and the Us(Figure4, also see our recent report oDTA call rush). Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Derivatives Research recentgains arefundamentallyjustified.By comparing earnings momentum withbeta-adjustedreturns,we highlight Europe's fundamental leaders, catch-up opportunities, potential de-ratingcandidates and structural laggards (Figure5 and Figure 6). Dispersion beneath the surface remainsfertile hunting ground for selective opportunities.European Banks (SX7E)and Tech (SX8P), including ASML, continue to stand out as fundamentalleaders, combining strong