快速达到1000亿美元ARR

RatingBuy Company Update North AmericaUnited States IndustrialsSpace Technology Fast path to $100bn ARR Valuation & Risks Edison Yu Following 2Q26 earnings last week, we take a closer look at the building blocks toachieve $100bn of ARR exiting December. As a baseline, 2Q's run-rate was just$31bn, meaning management is aiming to more than triple that in just six months.We see this target as likely very achievable, driven mainly by neocloud and Cursorcontribution. Research Analyst+1-212-250-7263 Bryan KraftResearch Analyst+1-212-250-0117 Melissa WeathersResearch Analyst+1-212-250-2134 Neocloud carrying the largest loadIn 2Q, neocloud revenue was $1.6bn, all coming from Anthropic; this deal alone should ramp up to $3.75bn in 3Q in quarterly revenue. In addition, the Googleagreement is set to ramp up next month and hit full $920m/month rate beginningin Oct. Then most recently, SpaceX signed a $6.7bn over six month deal which wesuspect could possibly be with the US government. And lastly, we expect one morelarge neocloud deal to get potentially signed before year-end considering industrycompute supply/demand dynamics. Putting it all together, this could generate $45-50bn of ARR exiting December. Roshan Ranjit, CFAResearch Analyst+44-20-754-52908 Laura LiResearch Associate+1-212-250-2266 Beyond that, we do see some risk Google could terminate its agreement at somepoint next year depending on its capacity situation (i.e., bridging until it can turn onmore compute) but generally see the other customers as fairly sticky for the next12-18 months. Notably, SpaceX expects to use next-gen NVIDIA Vera Rubin chips 10 August 2026Space TechnologySpaceX for all incremental capacity next year and we highlight Vera Rubin can deliver up to10x token efficiency relative to Blackwell. While other providers would also haveVera Rubin capacity, we wonder how quickly they will be able to deploy largeclusters compared to SpaceX. Cursor growing very fast We are assuming a full quarter of contribution from Cursor in 4Q as the acquisitionis expected to close in 3Q. While management has not disclosed revenueexpectations, there have been multiple media reports about Cursor's financialperformance. Back in early June, it was reported Cursor had hit $4bn of ARR vs.$2bn in February. Considering the growth in AI/agentic coding, we assume Cursorcan likely help grow ARR by 2-3x by December. See our initiation for a deeper diveinto Cursor. Capex trajectory next year Separately, SpaceX's capex is on a path to increase materially next year, targetingto deploy 5-10 GW of compute capacity vs. >2 GW exiting this year. This wouldimply an incremental 3-8 GW at a cost which we estimate to be $120bn-$320bn.Our base case is that management delivers toward the lower end of the range andthat total capex (including Space + Connectivity) trends toward the $200bn range.As such, we continue to expect management to raise more debt next year (>$100bn) and/or utilize some type of financing vehicle. Appendix 1 Important Disclosures *Other information available upon request Disclosure checklist *Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Otherinformation is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primarysubject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/EquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investorsare strongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators Disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the United States.SeeImportant Disclosures Required by Non-US Regulators and Explanatory Notes. 1.Within the past year, Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public offering for thiscompany, for which it received fees.7.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investmentbanking or financial advisory services within the past year.8.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment bankingservices from this company in the next three months.14.Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company within the past year for non-investment banking related services.15.This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year during which time it receivedinvestment banking services. Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S. Reg