英伟达融资架构扩散风险、延长周期、巩固领先地位

Financing structure diffuses risk, extendsrunway, cements lead Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 350.00 USD | Price: 217.55 USD 10 August 2026 NVDA underwrites the value, not the loan NVDA signed MOUs with six top financiers—Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield,Goldman Sachs and KKR—to mobilize $500bn+ of third-party capital via independentplatforms. We await further details, butour first take is a positive one–the burdensits with the consortium, not NVDA’s balance sheet.This appears to be a pivotaway from vendor-financing (i.e. OpenAI initial $100bn, ~$250bn guarantee) that drewcircularity fire–which we estimate at only ~15% of ~$470bn FCF over the next twoyears (CY26-27) (see Exhibit 1). NVDA’s upcoming earnings call could provide criticallyneeded assurance on its go-forward role in vendor financing, so that FCF can be betterdirected to a stock that trades at significantly depressed valuation, in our view. We notecurrent consensus models buybacks at ~$73bn/$106bn for CY26/27, or just ~36-37% ofFCF vs. NVDA’s >50% return pledge. Equity Vivek AryaResearch AnalystBofASvivek.arya@bofa.com Duksan JangResearch AnalystBofASduksan.jang@bofa.com Michael ManiResearch AnalystBofASmichael.mani@bofa.com Liam PharrResearch AnalystBofASliam.pharr@bofa.com NVDA GPUs offer long-term performance assuranceFor $500bn of capital to treat compute as an“investable asset class,”residual value must hold—and that is exactly what NVDA supplies.Compute that is fungible andtransferable across operators, with CUDA continuously extending useful life, keepsresell/rental rates high and depreciation curves benign. NVDA guarantees asset quality,not the debt—turning the bear’s depreciation worry into the enabling feature. Price217.55 USDPrice Objective350.00 USDDate Established20-May-2026Investment OpinionC-1-752-Week Range164.07 USD-236.54 USDMrkt Val (mn) / Shares Out (mn)5,412,644 USD / 24,880.0Free Float96.2%Average Daily Value (mn)28924.40 USDBofA Ticker / ExchangeNVDA / NASBloomberg / ReutersNVDA US / NVDA.OQROE (2027E)95.9%Net Dbt to Eqty (Jan-2026A)-1.4% Extends the runway on the AI buildoutFunding, not demand, has been the bottleneck—every hyperscaler complains of being supply-constrained. A $500bn pool (2.5x Google’s network) lets non-investment grade(IG) buyers—labs, neoclouds, sovereigns—secure GPUs, power and data centers atattractive rates, de-risking offtake and supporting our $1.7tn CY30 AI systems TAM path(seerelated cloud capex hereandAI TAM reports linked here). Key debates and risks we are watching Some caveats remain: 1) third-party capital still needs real end-customers paying realmoney, and MOUs are not deployed capital; 2) transferring/diffusing risk does not meanevery ROI question is answered; 3) power/regulatory blowback (cancelled UK NScale) andinput-cost inflation persist; 4) new financing structures can add opacity/complexity to AIbuildouts and pressure trading multiples; 5) while we assume this limits NVDA’s furtherbalance-sheet exposure, we await its exact role—any greater cash demands couldconstrain FCF available for much-needed buybacks to support the stock. 6G–Sixth-Gen Mobile CommsAI–Artificial IntelligenceAI-RAN–Artificial Intelligence Radio AccessNetworkCPU–Central Processing UnitCUDA–Compute Unified Device ArchitectureEDA–Electronic Design AutomationGPU–Graphics Processing UnitGPU–Graphics Processing UnitIG–Investment GradeIREN–IREN LimitedKKR–KKR & Co. Inc.MOU–Memorandum of UnderstandingNVDA–NVIDIA CorporationROI–Return on InvestmentTAM–Total Addressable Market Reiterate Buy; NVDA top pick, $320 PO At <20x CY27E PE (~0.4x PEG vs. 46%+ EPS CAGR) and ~65-70% share of a $1.7tn+CY30 TAM, NVDA remains compelling. This platform cements the CUDA moat whileshifting capital risk off NVDA—a structurally bullish setup in our view. Upcomingearnings call (Aug-26) the next important catalyst. The stock has come under pressurefollowing the last 4/4 and 6/10 earnings, as expectations are elevated. However, weremain positive, as explained in our recentQ2 previewon potential with NVDA’s next-gen Vera Rubin product cycle in further cementing the company’s ~70% industry share. Timestamp: 10 August 2026 05:49PM EDT Partner financing just ~15% of FCF So far, we estimate NVDA has committed to directly providing~$70bn in equityinvestmentsinto ecosystem partners, including the recent $30bn investment intoOpenAI, up to $10bn into Anthropic, and $5bn into Ilya Sutskever’s SafeSuperintelligence. This is on top of NVDA’sother customer backingssuch as its $1.5bn GPU sale-leaseback with Lambda, a program to rent back unused GPUs at fixed rates fromneoclouds, and another $860mn in lease obligations for an undisclosed partners. Overall, we view NVDA’s $70bn investments as easily manageable given its ability togenerate as much as ~$470bn of FCF over just the next two years (CY26-27),or ~15%of FCF. In other words, we see no issue in NVDA returning 50% of FCF to shareholdersas it has committed to in May 2026. Exhib