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本周要点:财报季回顾

信息技术 2026-08-10 德意志银行 表情帝
报告封面

IndustryWhat We Learned North AmericaUnited States This Week Earnings Season Recap Nate Svensson, CFAResearch Analyst+1-917-547-4768 Out with a bang While noting that a handful of stragglers in our coverage (ACN, AFRM, BILL, DAVA,GLOB, KLAR) will be reporting CY2Q26 results over the next couple of weeks,we arenow done with the majority of earnings season with 14 of our 27 companies undercoverage reporting results last week. Hersh Shintre, CFAResearch Associate+1-917-459-1162 Paul TomaszewskiResearch Associate+917-419-2598 Starting withresults that were more positive than we expected, CHYM(link) is themost natural place to begin. 2Q26 results at CHYM were stellar (and potentiallythesis changing for investors) as the company saw a big beat on PV/PaymentsRevenue driven by the rollout of Chime Prime and we think this momentum, inaddition to upcoming changes to MyPay limits, are likely to be sustained drivers oftransaction profit growth going forward.FLYW(link) was another name thatreported strong 2Q26 results. While we had called out FLYW in our preview (link) asone of the names we were most confident in on a fundamental basis this earningsseason, we were still positively surprised at the momentum in Travel and thecompany’sability to raise guidance despite incremental headwinds in UKEducation.WEX(link) is also a name that deserves a shoutout. While we feel the T+1move in shares (+10%) was likely more positioning driven than anything else, we doacknowledge that results were better than expected, particularly in macro-adjustedMobility growth. Finally, while the post-earnings price action atV(link) andMA(link)was relatively muted, we came away from both of these prints more optimistic onthe networks than before and see them as two of the cleanest stories in ourcoverage for a combination of earnings revisions and multiple re-rating. Moving tothe results that were more negative than we expected, WU(link) is thefirst big standout. The company reported a big miss on margins/EPS and was forcedto lower its FY26 EPS guide due to continued pressure in Americas retail,transaction growth in less profitable channels, higher commission costs, and lowertravel money profitability. Additionally, the company’s proposed acquisitions ofIMXI has still not closed (WU now assuming 9/1 close for modelling purposes).Next, whileFOUR’s(link) 2Q26 results were better than expected (including fromthe Middle East; see here for more detail), the company’s guide for the remainderof the year was soft relative to expectations. While mgmt. provided reasonableexpectationsfor the guidance cut(Middle East,recent Term Loan B),ourconversations with investors suggest concerns around the cut are more centeredaround what organic growth/FCF generation will be next year, rather than the 10 August 2026Payments, Processors, & IT ServicesWhat We Learned This Week discrete impacts to results this year. Elsewhere,FISV(link) had another quarter ofmessy results and cut their FY26 guide while maintaining their mid-term outlook.Frankly, we were surprised that FISV shares finished flat the day of results, but wedo think there is some hope lingering out there for strategic alternatives givencommentary from mgmt. and the involvement of activist investors in the name.Finally, while IT Services, generally, remains in a tough spot,EPAM(link) stood outthis qtr. Not only was the company forced to cut its guidance (after previouslymaintaining that the midpoint of the prior guide assumed no improvement in themacro), but the discrete commentary mgmt. gave on headwinds impacting thecompany in North America was worrisome to us as it sounded like AI is starting todisintermediate certain lines of work, particularly with tech/software clients. We are using this note to update models and TPs to account for CY2Q26 resultsand new outlooks for our names that recently reported. We are updating ourmodels for CHYM, CPAY, EPAM, EVTC, FIS, FISV, FLYW, FOUR, G, GPN, MQ, TOST,and XYZ. We are also updating our TPs for the names listed below. Please see bodyof note for more details. nRaising CHYM to $30 from $21nRaising CPAY to $470 from $415nRaising EPAM to $95 from $85nRaising GPN to $90 from $76nRaising TOST to $42 from $35nLowering FOUR to $45 from $50nLowering MQ to $17 from $18 10 August 2026Payments, Processors, & IT ServicesWhat We Learned This Week 10 August 2026Payments, Processors, & IT ServicesWhat We Learned This Week Recently Published Research nFIS: Capital Markets Under Pressure, Soft 3Q26 Banking GuidenMQ: Solid Results, Cash App Diversification Takes Center StagenTOST: Eating Everyone’s LunchnFLYW: Another Strong Beat and RaisenEVTC: Outperformance (Almost) Across the BoardnGPN: Cuts Revenue Guide as Expected, EPS a Little More SurprisingnCPAY: Corporate Payments Remains SolidnXYZ: Firing on all CylindersnCHYM: Excellent ResultsnFOUR: Several Moving Parts Overshadow Decent 2Q26 resultsnFISV: Hangs Onto MT Guide While Cutting FY26nEPAM: Back Half Organic Grow