每 日 早 盘 观 察 每日早盘观察 目录 金融衍生品 股指期货:仍有反弹动能................................................................................................................................3国债期货:关注市场风偏与资金面变化........................................................................................................4 农产品 蛋白粕:供应压力较大价格震荡运行...........................................................................................................5白糖:外糖价格大涨........................................................................................................................................5油脂板块:油脂整体维持区间震荡................................................................................................................6玉米/玉米淀粉:玉米现货偏弱,玉米期货偏弱震荡...................................................................................7生猪:出栏压力好转猪价偏强运行...............................................................................................................8花生:现货稳定,花生盘面窄幅震荡............................................................................................................9苹果:市场缺乏驱动果价震荡走势.............................................................................................................10鸡蛋:现货价格稳定......................................................................................................................................11棉花-棉纱:干旱天气影响美棉有所走强....................................................................................................11 黑色金属 钢材:焦化厂减产预期走强,钢价跟随原料反弹......................................................................................13双焦:修复性反弹后,对上方高度不宜过于乐观......................................................................................13铁矿:市场预期偏弱,矿价偏空对待..........................................................................................................14铁合金:电费支撑较强..................................................................................................................................15 有色金属 贵金属:非农就业超预期走弱贵金属震荡走强.........................................................................................16铜:铜价重心上移..........................................................................................................................................17氧化铝:成本提高但供应增加维持基差区间运行.....................................................................................18电解铝:非农不及预期铝淡季维持去库.....................................................................................................19铸造铝合金:震荡反弹..................................................................................................................................19锌:暂时观望,关注国内出口数量..............................................................................................................20铅:维持低位震荡..........................................................................................................................................21镍:海峡有望通航打击硫磺价格..................................................................................................................21 不锈钢:成本下行,震荡走弱......................................................................................................................22工业硅:供需边际改善,多单持有..............................................................................................................23多晶硅:多单持有,及时止盈止损..............................................................................................................24碳酸锂:宏观氛围转暖锂价有望企稳.........................................................................................................24锡:部分资金获利了结,锡价涨势暂缓......................................................................................................25 航运及碳排放 集运:伊朗推进海峡安全纲要,美方转向经济施压..................................................................................27干散货运价:货盘充裕支撑散货租金维持高位,关注地缘和周转对供给扰动的持续时长..................28碳排放:国内碳价冲高回落,欧洲夏休期碳价高位震荡..........................................................................29 能源化工 原油:伊朗拒绝直接谈判地缘局势仍不明朗............................................................................................31沥青:供需双弱,库存低位..........................................................................................................................31燃料油:近端供应缺口仍存..........................................................................................................................32LPG:地缘再迎不确定性................................................................................................................................33天然气:HH小幅走强TTF微跌....................................................................................................................34PX&PTA:美伊接近谈判达成地缘溢价削弱...............................................................................................35BZ&EB:8月纯苯供应回归,库存转累库趋势............................................................................................35乙二醇:近强远弱基差走强........................................................................................................................36短纤:供需双弱亏损扩大...............................................................