花旗研报：市场预期仍在低估AI收入与盈利潜力

ROl on Al:Consensus Is Still Underestimating Al Revenues &Returns Heath Terry AC+1-212-723-4624heath.terry@citi.comShelbySpencer Hyperscalercloudrevenueacceleratedto+48%in2Qfrom+39% in1Q,withcollectivebacklogalsoacceleratingto+151%vs.+143%lastQ,reflectingthecontinued acceleration in enterprise adoption.CROCl over the last 12monthswasrelativelysteadyat28%vs.29%in1Q.Despitethis,consensuscontinuesto underestimatefuture revenuegrowth&profitabilitytied toAl.Themathissimple:CapEx+Time=Profits.Accountingfortheaccelerationin CapEx in24 and beyond,we estimate that consensus continues tounderestimaterevenuegrowthby+500bpsfor'27and+900bps for'28.Withdemandcontinuingtooutstripsupply,weexpectCapExwil continueto grow as much as constraints allow,driving outperformance acrosstheinfrastructure,compute,applications,andendusersleveragedtoAl. +1-212-816-0416shelby.spencer@citi.com Ashley Kim+1-212-816-6689ashley.kim@citi.com Janna Withrow+1-212-723-0439janna.withrow@citi.com Returns.DespiteacceleratingCapExgrowth,CashReturnsonCashInvestedacrossthehyperscalers was 28% in2Q,essentiallyflatwith1Qdespite the increase ininventories at Alphabet related to TPU sales.Returns are benefiting from higherconsuming1-trilliontokensand>2Kenterprisesconsuming>100billiontokensoverthelastyear,Microsoft's30millionpaidM365Copilot seats,Amazon's>$25BAlrevenue run-rate),resulting inaccelerating revenue and backlog growth aswell asmarginexpansionwithhyperscalerEBITDAmarginsholdingat43%in2Qvs.43%in1Q.Despite investorfocus onfinancing costs as free cashflowturns increasinglynegative,hyperscalersshouldcontinuetoinvestaggressivelyinAlinfrastructuregiven the consistent highreturns generated (Figure 7). CapEx.Hyperscalers continued to signal sustained infrastructure intensity,withconsensusraisingcombined'26CapExforecastsby0.8%followingresults.Googlerepeated its prior commentary of expecting a significant increase in27 CapExrelativeto'26,MicrosoftexpectsFY27CapExtogrowyear-over-year,andAmazonexpectscapacityconstraintstopersistinto2027,with“striking”demandalreadyinthe pipeline for 2028.The aggregate CY26ECapExforecast is now $730B, a 77%increasevs.CY25.Meta revised its guidance range to $130B-$145B vs.its prioroutlook of $125B-135B,while Google lifted its rangeby7%at themidpoint to$190B-$205B(+116%y/yvs.consensusat+105%)dueto“anaccelerationindeliveryofcapacitytomeetgrowingdemand."Amazon'soutlookwasraisedby$20Bto~$220B(+67%y/y,10%-ptsaboveconsensus),citinghighermemorycosts. Acceleration.Prioracceleration inCapExspending,combinedwiththereturnsthatCapEx generates at current economics,is driving accelerating growth (Figure 1-Figure 5).CsPs'revenue and backlog growth continue to signal strong revenuegrowthfrom enterpriseAlapplications and services,with GcPleading with a near20-pointq/qgrowthacceleration(+82%y/yin2Q;17ptsaheadofconsensus),whilerespectively.Google,Microsoft,and Amazon's combinedbacklog expandedto$1.69T in 2Q vs.$1.45T in 1Q (+151% y/y vs.+143%) (Figure 6). Consensus revised'27revenueforecastsby2.3%,thefirsttime we've seenrevenuerevisions exceed CapExrevisions.Takingthisrelationshipatfacevaluesuggeststhatconsensusestimatesareunderestimatingtheshapeofthegrowthcurvefrom2027onwards-a dynamic SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations. 2026 Citigroup Inc.Noredistribution without Citigroup's written permission.Note:Dottedlinereflects consensusrevenuegrowth estimatesSource: Citi Research,Visible Alpha, Company Reports 2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup'swrttenpermission.Note:Dotted linereflectsconsensusrevenuegrowthestimatesSource:Citi Research,Visible Alpha,Company Reports Note:Dotted line reflects consensus revenuegrowthestimatesSource:CitiResearch,Visible Alpha,CompanyRepors Note:Dotted linereflects consensusrevenuegrowthestimatesSource:Citi Research,VisibleAlpha,CompanyReports 2026CitigroupInc.NoredistributionwithoutCitigroup'swrittenpermission.CROCIdefinition:Debt-adjusted cashflowadjustedforR&Dexpenses/average gross cash invested adjustedforcapitalized R&D.See earlier notesfor4Q25,1Q26 Source: Citi Research, Company Reports Source:CitiResearch,Visible Alpha,CompanyRepors US+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 Theresearchanalysts primarilyresponsiblefor thepreparation and contentof this research reportareeither (i)designated analystsaredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalyst listedinboldalongsidethecontentand (b)viewsexpressed solelyratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalystscertify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportforwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviewsexpressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerand security referencedandwerepreparedinan independent manner,includingwithrespectto CitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.and itsaffiliates;and (2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificre