HBM短缺倒逼AI芯片厂商从纵向扩容转向横向扩展

GlobalSemiconductors Amidpersistentmemoryshortages,weexpectAlchipmakersto increasinglyscaleoutbydeployingmoreGPUswithlowerHBMcontent.AstheNVLinkdomainwouldexpandfrom72to576GPUs,theaggregateHBMcapacityperAlsystemisprojectedtoincreaseby433%to110.6TBfrom20.7TB.WealsoexpectHBMsupplytoremaintight,asmemorysuppliersstaydisciplinedinexpandingoutputamidattractiveserverDDR5,SOCAMM2andeSSDeconomics.WeremainconstructiveonKoreamemorysuppliersunderourcoverage. +82-2-3705-0720peter.sc.lee@citi.comJayden Oh +82-2-3705-0747jayden.oh@citi.com Ultra configuration featuring 8-Hi HBM4 with 192GB of capacity.By comparison,NVIDIA's official Rubin specification features 12-Hi HBM4and288GBof capacity.Ifadopted,thereported Rubin Ultra configuration would carry33%less HBMcapacitythan Rubinand50% less than the prior market expectation of 384GB fora two-dieHBM4Edesign.Most HBM4 roadmaps have sofarfocused on higher-capacity12-Hiand16-Hi stacks.NVIDIA'sreported consideration ofan 8-Hi configuration suggeststhatitmayprioritizereducingHBM costs perGPUand its overallprocurementburdenovermaximizingmemorycapacity. RubinUltra'sfocusmayshifttosystem-levelscalabilityto576GPUsfrom72GPUsshiftingawayfrommaximizingmemorycapacityperGPUandtowardexpandingtheoverallGPUdomain.NVIDIA'sRubinUltraNVL576connects eight72-GPUracks intoa single 576-GPU NVLink domain. Moving from 12-Hi to 8-Hi HBM could reducepackagingcomplexity,improvemanufacturingyieldandthroughput,andeasedata-centerpowerandcoolingconstraints,potentiallyallowingNViDIAtodeployagreaternumberofGPUs. of the graphics in this document, please call USA 1-888-500-5008 (TTY: 711), from outside theUS+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 Theresearchanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparationand contentofthisresearchreportareeither(i)designated by"Ac"intheauthorblockor(i)listedinboldalongsidecontentwhichisattributabletothatanalyst.IfmultipleAcanalystsaredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherAC certifying analyst listed inboldalongsidethe contentand (b)views expressedsolelywithrespecttoaspecificissuerwhichareattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystidentified inthepricechartsorratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalystscertify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportforwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviewsexpressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerandsecurityreferencedandwerepreparedinanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.and its affiliates;and (2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst's compensationwas,is,orwill be,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystinthisreport.IMPORTANTDISCLOSURES Analystscompensation isdetermined byCiti Researchmanagementand Citigroup's seniormanagement and isbasedupon activitiesand servicesintendedtobenefittheinvestorclients ofCitigroup Global Markets Inc.anditsaffiliates(the“Firm").Compensationisnotlinkedto specifictransactionsorrecommendations.Likeall Firm employees,analystsreceivecompensationthatisimpactedbyoverall Firmprofitabilitywhich includes investmentbanking,sales andtrading,andprincipaltradingrevenues.Onefactorinequityresearchanalystcompensationisarrangingcorporateaccesseventsbetweeninstitutionalclientsandthemanagementteamsofcoveredcompanies.Typically,companymanagement ismorelikelytoparticipatewhen theanalysthas apositiveviewofthe company.Forfinancialinstrumentsrecommended intheProductin whichtheFirmisnotamarket maker,theFirmis a liquidityprovider insuchfinancialinstruments(andanyunderlyinginstruments)andmayactasprincipalinconnectionwithtransactionsinrecommended in the Product.TheFirm regularlytrades in the securities oftheissuer(s)discussed in the Product.TheFirm mayengagein securitiestransactions in a mannerinconsistentwiththe Product and,with respecttosecurities covered bytheProduct,willbuyorsellfromcustomersonaprincipalbasisUnless stated otherwiseneitherthe Research Analyst noranymemberof theirteamhas viewedthematerialoperations ofthe Companiesforwhichaninvestmentviewhasbeenprovidedwithinthepast12months.Forimportantdisclosures (includingcopiesofhistorical disclosures)regardingthe companiesthatarethesubjectofthisCiti Attention:Legal/Compliance[E6wYB6412478].Inaddition,thesameimportantdisclosures,withtheexceptionoftheValuationand Riskassessments and historical disclosures,are containedontheFirm'sdisclosurewebsiteat Citi Researchstockrecommendations includean investmentratingandanoptional riskratingtohighlighthighriskstocksRiskratingtakes intoaccountbothpricevolatilityandfundamental criteria.Stockswill eitherhavenoriskratingoraHighriskrating assigned. InvestmentRatings:Citi ResearchinvestmentratingsareBuy,NeutralandSell.Ourratingsareafunctionofanalystexpectations of expectedtotal return ("ETR")and risk.ETRisthesum oftheforecastpriceappreciation(or depreciation)plusthedividendyieldforastockwithinthenext12months.Thetargetpriceisbasedona12monthtimehorizon.TheInvestment