Minimax创始人CEO会议要点追求极致性价mFounderCEOmeetingPursuingultimatepricetoperformancereiterateBuy20260727

LLM⾏业最新格局及"价格"与"性能"并重趋势的凸显、智能体/⾏业能⼒的重要性提升，以及公司以多模态路径构建差异化优势。1) The company’s top focus in pursuing the bestprice-to-performance for its models, in particularwith M3 model currently at trillions of daily tokens athealthy gross margins for its open platform/APIrevenues (targeting eventual high double-digits GPMdriven by inference e[ciencies, at current pricing) andthe company expectations that its upcoming M3 Pro(at the 3 trillion parameter size class, targeting launch 施：该公司认为，⾃2025年9⽉起⼤幅增加⾃营计算能⼒（通过国内外收购/⻓期租赁）的决定，在GPU/AI服务器⻓期租赁价格远低于当前⽔平时便已形成同业优势，这将成为其成本竞争⼒的关键驱动⼒之⼀——凭借多年⾃营AI基础设施经验，公司能以极具吸引⼒的硬件/租赁价格实现⾼利⽤率与⾼效率（例如在同⼀集群中同时进⾏训练与推理）。3) LLM industry landscape and rising importance of‘price’ alongside ‘performance’ and agentic/sector-speciDc capabilities:the company commented thattheir M2 model series outperformed peers in time-to-market and on price-to-performance earlier this year,but acknowledged its upcoming M3 Pro has laggedslightly as the company pursued a two-model withinthe M3 family and as the company was ramping up itsself-operated computing clusters over 1Q26. With M2模型系列在今年早些时候在上市速度和性价⽐⽅⾯优于同⾏，但承认即将推出的M3 Pro略有滞后，原因是公司在M3系列中推⾏双模型策略，且公司在2026年第⼀季度期间正加速建设⾃营计算集群。随着中国⼚商聚焦于后训练数据 和强化学习，这正全⾯推动编程性能提升（MiniMax也在这⼀领域发⼒），公司认为⽤户 4) Multi-modal approach as a key diGerentiation,where the company continues to iterate/re^ne M3multi-modal capabilities that will be applied to M3 Pro.Meanwhile, its upcoming H3 model will be more than avideo-generation model (Hailuo) but a newarchitecture as an Omni-model, that understands all Pro。与此同时，其即将推出的H3模型将不仅是视频⽣成模型（海螺AI），更是⼀种全新架构的全能模型，能够理解所有模态（⽂本、图像、视频、⾳频、⾳乐），并根据⽤户需求/提示词稳定输出视频、图像、⾳频等内容。公司预计H3模型即将发布（⽬前处于发布准备的最后阶 影响：我们认为当前存在多个推动股价上涨的积极因素，⻛险回报⽐呈正向倾斜。With MiniMax eligible for Southbound Connect fromAug 2026 and given the steep market cap discount (US$8.5bn) vs. China video-generation model peerKling post-money valuation of US$18bn (see ourreport) and Z.ai/Zhipu last close at US$71bn, we view the company’s articulated strategy in addressing M3model competitiveness and imminent H3 multi-modallaunch as positive drivers for ARR ramp up that coulddrive signi^cant room for valuation repair over 2H2026 (vs. ARR of US$400mn+ in early June 2026before M3 launch, at a run-rate likely at half of Zhipu atthe mid-year mark 2026). We see a clear positive skewto risk-reward and reiterate Buy.鉴于MiniMax将于2026年8⽉具备纳⼊南向互联互通机制的资格，且其当前市值（85亿美元）与中国视频⽣成模型同⾏Kling的180亿美元投后估值（参⻅我们的报告）以及智谱AI/Z.ai最近710亿美元的估值相⽐存在显著折价，我们认为该公司在提升M3模型竞争⼒及即将推出H3多模态产品⽅⾯的明确战略，将成为推动ARR增⻓、并在2026年下半年（相较于2026年6⽉初M3发布前超4亿美元的ARR，按2026年年中节点约为智谱AI⼀半的运营速率）带来估值修复空间的积极驱动因素。我们判断⻛险回报⽐呈现明显正向倾斜，重申买⼊评We continue to see MiniMax as well positionedamongst Chinese AI model companies to capture thesigni^cant global TAM growth potential acrosstext/coding, multi-modal, agentic/co-worker (digitallabor) and multi-modal generation on the back of itscomprehensive multi-modal oWerings, strongcommercialization capability, AI model per token costadvantages and high organizational e[ciency.我们持续认为MiniMax在中国AI模型公司中具备独特优势，凭借其全⾯的多模态产品矩阵、强 industry; Slower-than-expected path to pro^tvisibility; Weaker-than-expected commercializationcapability; risks around IP/content generation; cashburn/self-funding capability; risks around geopoliticsunder an intensi^ed tech race between the US and主要⻛险：全球基础模型⾏业竞争加剧导致模型表现不及预期；盈利可⻅性路径慢于预期；商业化能⼒不及预期；知识产权/内容⽣成相关⻛险；现⾦消耗/⾃筹资⾦能⼒⻛险；中美科技竞赛加剧背景下的地缘政治⻛险。Exhibit1:MiniMax P&L summary图表1：MiniMax损益表摘要 Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research来源：公司数据，⾼盛全球投资研究Exhibit2:Valuation bull/bear/base scenarios图表2：估值看涨/看跌/基准情景 12m Price Target:HK$860.0012个⽉⽬标价：860.00港元Price:HK$199.30价格：199.30港元Upside:331.5%Market cap:HK$62.5bn / $8.0bn市值：625亿港元/ 80亿美元Enterprise value:HK$56.1bn / $7.2bn企业价值：561亿港元/ 72亿美元3m ADTV:HK$1.5bn / $191.5mn三个⽉平均⽇交易量：15亿港元/ 1.915亿美元China Ecommerce & Logistics中国电商与物流M&A Rank:3Leases incl. in net debt & EV?:Yes净债务及企业价值中是否包含租赁负债？：是GS Forecast