英特尔（INTC）2026年第二季度复盘：离伊萨卡还有多远？

+1213559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.comAlrick Shaw +1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Market-PerformPrice Target +19173448461 +1212 845 7839eva.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Intel (INTC): Q226 Recap - How close to Ithaca? datacenter was equallystrongand well above consensus,thoughperhaps notas surprising(at $6.3Bvs.Street $5.5B)with demand materially outstripping supply.Gross margins camein well ahead at 41.8%vs.consensus at 39.2%, driven by higher revenues and better mix. Q326outlookwasalsowell above($16.3B/$0.38/42.0%vsStreet$15.1B/$0.27/40.2%),upLSD% QoQmostlyonmodestsequential DCAlgrowth (asthey work to addmorecapacity). Q4 will have some offsetting trends as well, with DCAl ramping materially as supplycomes online, offset by likely material PC weakness as the market finally wins out. Grossmarginsareseenabovethestreetbut onlyup~20bpsQoQ(anddown excludingaQ2inventory charge)dueto a meaningfullylarger contribution from Intel 3/18A ramps.FY26capex outlook was raised with management now expecting spending to reach >s20B, andalso suggesting that FY27 capex to be even higher. On the positive serverstrength continues tooutperformwhat are increasingly bullishexpectations,commentaryaround18Aand14Aprogress remainspositive,andin anincreasingly tight environment the general attitude toward Intel as a potential manufacturingpartner (especially in packaging) is seemingly growing more constructive. That being said,the PC flush we have worried about seems about to hit, themagnitude of what is going to besignificantly increasing capex (while arguably a positive from a fundamental basis) remainsnebulous for now,and the company's answeraround the possibility of a future capital raisewas perhaps not as dismissive as some might have wanted it to be, with the shares paringsome oftheiraftermarketgainsduringthe call. But while we still struggle a bit with valuation, we admit to feeling better about Intel than wehave in a while as the company (both through foresight and, admittedly, some luck)is pullingthrough, with both the marketand narrative increasingly supportive. Raising estimates,PT to$110(8x EV/sales, unchanged,on avgFY27/28 ests); we rate INTC MP. InvestmentImplications narrative/headlines may fuel the vibe for now. $14.4B/$0.21).Client in particular showed surprising upside (at $8.9B~$90oM above consensus), driven largely by(at$6.3B vs.Street$5.5B)withdemand materiallyoutstripping supply.Grossmargins came in well ahead at41.8%vs.consensus at39.2%,drivenby higher revenues and better mix. and (more surprisingly) Client which was unexpectedly strong (at ~$8.9B vs $8.0B consensus) driven by higher ASP fromfavorablemixas higher SkUs werefavored.Datacenterrevenueswereequallystrong andwellaboveconsensus(at$6.3Bvs. $5.5B consensus, though perhaps not as surprising) with demand materially outstripping supply. (Exhibit 1). andstrongergross margins. higher revenues and mix. Non-GAAPOpexcameinat~$3.97B, roughly inline with consensus ($4.04B)(Exhibit6) ClientComputingandPhysicalAlGroup(CCPG,formerlyClientComputingGroup)revenuesofS8,877Mgrew~13%YoYand~15%QoQ(Exhibit7),wellaboveconsensusat$7,993M.ThestrengthwasdrivenbyclientASPsasthe company prioritized higher end parts in a challenging environment (client units were down YoY)and strength in thephysical Al/embeddedportionofthe segment.Operating income was $2,343M,up14%YoY,withmargins down~620bpssequentially from 32.6%to26.4% on one-time inventorycharges (Exhibit 8).CCG revenue growth was well above theoverall PC market (which had units flattish to slightly down QoQ (+0.4%/-0.9%) as per Gartner and IDC) (Exhibit 9). DataCenter&AlGroup(DCAl)revenuesof$6,262Mwereup~59%YoYandwereup~24%QoQ,wellaboveconsensus at $5,541M.Operating incomewas $2,474M,up 291%YoYand operating margins came up~4900bps QoQfrom~30.5%to~39.5%.(Exhibit7,Exhibit8). IntelFoundryServicesrevenuesof$5,765Mwereup~31%YoYandup~6%QoQ(Exhibit7),aboveconsensusatQoQ (though remaining horrendously negative)to-36.2%.External foundry sales were $293M (Altera, etc presumably). AllOtherrevenues (whichprimarilyincludeMobileyeandIMS)of$701Mweredown33%YoYandwereup12%QoQ(Exhibit7),aboveconsensusat$638M.Operating incomewas$230M,upfrom$69MYoYwithOperatingmarginsup~1,660bps QoQto 32.8%.Mobileye revenues (reported earlier in the day) were $508M, flattish YoY and down~10% QoQwithOperatingmarginscoming inat~31%comparedto~17%lastquarter. Q326outlookwasalsowellabovethestreet(Q3at$16.3B/$0.38/42.0%vsStreet$15.1B/$0.27/40.2%),asrevenues seeLSD%sequentiallygrowthoffahighbasemostlyonmodestsequential DCAlgrowth(astheyworktoweakness asthemarketfinallywinsout.Grossmarginsare seenabovethestreetbutonlyup~2obps QoQ(anddownreach>s20B,andalsosuggestingthatFY27capextobe"significantlyabovethe2026levels". Q326 revenues were guided to~$16.3Bat the midpoint,wellabove street estimates at$15.1B drivenbyDCAl sequentialgrowth (amid supply constraints) with Client only seen upmodestlysequentially given softness in PC CPUs and strength inEmbed