AT&T财报对覆盖标的的影响：运营商资本支出与iPhone相关公司的解读

Read-through: AT&T Capex andiPhones This morning AT&T reported Jun-Q (2Q26) earnings. EquipmentNEUTRAL providercapex-exposed stocks (CIEN, CSCO, and GLW),as wellas AAPL.For AT&T exposure,weestimate~11% revenuefor CIEN and LSD for overall GLW revenues (though we estimate roughlyHSD of GLW's Optical revenues), and~6% ofiPhone units. EquipmentTim Long +1 212 526 4043tim.long@barclays.comBCI, US above Street consensus:AT&Thandset data points implya unit contribution roughlymeetingthe Street expectationsfor AAPLiPhones with atickdown in the upgrade rate.2Q26capex cameinat $5.7Bn vs.theStreet expectation of $5.5Bn Alyssa Shreves+12125267570alyssa.shreves@barclays.comBCI, US AT&T's handset and capex numbers: Mary Lenox+1 212 526 6277mary.lenox@barclays.comBCI, US :AT&T (T; covered by Kannan Venkateshwar) reported smartphone unit sales of 5.2M in Jun-Q,flat Y/Y. .Upgraderatemoved downagain to3.2% intheQ(from3.5%previousQ),down1obps fromayear ago and down 30bps sequentially,which we believe was largely due to faded enthusiasmaround the carrier subsidies and the step-down in upgrade rate. We believe the telcoreported upgrade rates are more important for this iPhone cycle as AsPs willikely increasebya decent amount. Clarisse Yu+1 212 526 7025clarisse.yu@barclays.comBCI, US Read-through for AAPL:We estimate AT&T sold roughly 3.4M iPhones in the quarter, flat Y/Yand down LSD sequentially. We think this implies in-line iPhones unit contribution for thequarterfor AT&T, which we think is partially attributable to iPhone 17 line momentum, offset bya typicallyweakerQ2 Capex read-through:2Q26 capex came in above the Street at $5.7B,though the companymaintained the capital investment outlook tobe in therange of s23-24Bn annuallyfor2026,with the 2H capital investment being more back-end loaded. We view the reaffirmed full-yearcapexguide mostly neutralto ourSP capex-exposed stocks in our coverage-CIEN,GLW,CSco.Our sector continues to see a normalization in North America carrier activity.Similarto industrycommentary,we expecttelcos'ongoingfiber expansion tobe lumpyforGLW,though we expecttherecoveryforSPscontinuinginthebackhalf.Wecontinuetobelieveopticalspendforcapacity enhancements willbe prioritized and expect CIEN's business with major US telcostoaccelerate into nextyear. FIGURE 1. Handset Metrics I, Tim Long, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report.ImportantDisclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates (collectively and each individually,"Barclays"). All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects theAvailability of Disclosures: Where any companies are the subject ofthis research report,for current important disclosures regarding those companies please referto https:// publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance,745 Seventh Avenue,13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call+1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outside the US by affiliates of Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FiNRA. Such non- US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company,public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst's account.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting payment or reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis quantitative analysis,and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Barclays Research may differ from those contained in othertypes ofBarclays Research, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please referto https:// publicresearch.barclays.com/S/RD.htm. In orderto acces