日本汽车及汽车零部件 FY3/27 Q1 预览：本田、铃木、丰田通商有望实现强劲业绩

Japan Autos & Auto Parts: FY3/27 Q1 Preview - Honda, Suzuki,and Toyota Tsusho poised for strong results Ahead of the upcoming earnings season, we review Q1 (April–June) volume trends across ourcoverage universe and present our outlook for each company's Q1 earnings results. Masahiro Akita+81 3 6777 6998masahiro.akita@bernsteinsg.com Honda, Suzuki, and Toyota Tsusho poised for strong results:Key areas of focus for theJapan Autos & Auto Parts sector's Q1 (April–June) earnings are likely to include the earningsbenefit from lower US import tariffs, which have declined to 15% this quarter from 27.5% ayear ago, as well as headwinds from Middle East-related volume disruptions and higher rawmaterial and logistics costs. Within our coverage, we see Honda, Suzuki, and Toyota Tsushoas the most likely positive standouts this earnings season. Meanwhile, although we forecastYoY profit declines for Subaru and Toyota, both companies are still expected to deliverbroadly favorable results, driven by earnings that should exceed consensus expectationsand healthy progress toward their initial full-year guidance. Tomohiro Kashimoto+81 3 6777 6975tomohiro.kashimoto@bernsteinsg.com Seunghyeok Kim+81 3 6777 6974seunghyeok.kim@bernsteinsg.com Suzuki and Honda likely to stand out in Q1 sales performance:Aggregate Q1 salesacross our coverage are estimated to rise 3.9% YoY. Suzuki is expected to post thestrongest growth, driven by robust demand in India, while Honda should benefit from strongHEV sales in the US and improving demand in Japan. Subaru's sales trend also remainssolid. By contrast, Nissan, Mazda, and Toyota are likely to see modest sales declines.However, Toyota's latest production plan points to a return to YoY growth from Q2 onward,suggesting sales momentum should improve in the coming quarters. Particularly bullish on Honda and Suzuki into Q1 results:Honda and Suzuki stand out as the most compelling Q1 earnings stories within our coverage. We expectboth companies to deliver solid YoY profit growth and outperform current consensusexpectations. Honda should benefit from strong US HEV demand, lower tariff costs, andthe absence of last year's sizable EV-related charges, potentially resulting in exceptionallystrong progress against full-year guidance. Suzuki is also well positioned, supportedby robust volume growth in India and resilient earnings momentum. While Subaru andToyota are expected to report YoY declines in operating profit, both are still likely to deliverfavorable results relative to market expectations. By contrast, Nissan and Mazda are likelyto be relative laggards, reflecting weaker earnings momentum and limited progress againsttheir initial full-year guidance. Toyota Tsusho likely to stand out among Toyota affiliates:While Denso and Aisinare unlikely to deliver significant earnings surprises, we expect Toyota Tsusho's Q1 netprofit to exceed expectations, primarily driven by strong Toyota Land Cruiser sales inAfrica. Although lower Toyota production volumes remain a headwind for Denso and Aisin,favorable FX and tariff pass-through measures should support broadly stable earnings,making a significant earnings surprise unlikely. By contrast, Toyota Tsusho appears wellpositioned to outperform expectations. Our analysis shows that Land Cruiser sales in Africaand EUR/JPY are both highly correlated with earnings in Toyota Tsusho's Africa businessnet profit. With IHS forecasting African Land Cruiser sales to increase 28.4% YoY in Q1 andEUR/JPY remaining supportive, we expect robust earnings growth in the Africa business,increasing the likelihood of a meaningful upside surprise in Q1 earnings. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rateToyotaasOutperformwith a price target ofJPY4,200. We rateSuzukiasOutperformwith a price target ofJPY2,550.We rateHondaasMarket-Performwith a price target ofJPY1,300.We rateNissanasUnderperformwith a price target ofJPY 350.We rateMazdaasUnderperformwith a price target ofJPY1,000.We rateSubaruasUnderperformwith a price target ofJPY2,350.We rateToyota TsushoasOutperformwith a price target ofJPY8,150.We rateDensoasMarket-Performwith a price target ofJPY 2,050.We rateAisinasMarket-Performwith a price target ofJPY 2,450. DETAILS SUZUKI AND HONDA LIKELY TO STAND OUT IN Q1 SALES PERFORMANCE Based on our estimates of vehicle sales in key markets excluding China, which do not directly impact the consolidated revenuesand operating profits of the six Japanese automakers under our coverage, aggregate Q1 (April–June) sales are likely to increaseby 3.9% YoY on average (Exhibit 1). That said, performance is expected to vary considerably across automakers. Suzuki is likely to deliver the strongest growth, with global sales estimated to rise 18.4% YoY (Exhibit 2). The key driver remainsIndia, where sales are projected to increase 33% YoY, benefiting significantly from the GST rate cuts implemented last year.With the Kharkhoda plant commencing operations in May, we expect this mo