2026年上半年中国房地产行业更新：或超我们的悲观预测

1H26notasweakasfeared:Followingafew companies'1H26profit alerts,we +852-2501-2438griffin.chan@citi.comCindy Li update our preview forecasts:i) Beat:CRL 1H26 earnings could be flattish withhigherREITdisposalgainsbutlowerDPprofits(in-line);DPGPMdeclinesforC&D,COLl,COGOandLongforcouldbeslightlybetterthanexpected;forLongfor,wenowexpectbreakevenin1H26(vs.previousexpectationwasRmb2bnloss);ii)Miss:CMSK,GemdaleandYuexiuannouncednegativeprofitalertswithbigger1H26drop;ili)Contractedsalesin1H26-15%yoybutfivenames(COGO,COLI,CMSK,Jinmao&CRL)achieved6-15%salesgrowth in1Honkeycities'recovery. +852-2501-2710cindy.li@citi.com PositionforsalesgrowthandpickupinlaunchesfromSep;lookthroughweak1HinJul-Seponresilientvolumesincorecitiesandafavorablelowbase;(2)astrongernewlaunchpipelinefromSep;(3)likelysupportivetonefromJul'sPolitburomeetingDespite sector's recent share-price retreat,physical market activity remains firm,withprimary/secondarytransactionunitsinkeycities increasing18%/12%yoyinthefirst week of July.We think 1H26 earnings weakness is largely in-the-price, andguidanceonsales&margincouldbesupportive.Assuch,wethinkthesectoriswellpreparedfora bull run in Jul-Oct.Toppicks:CRL,C&D,Beike, Jinmao&COLI.WeturnedmorepositiveonC&DfromJunonitsproductupgrades&paceduplandacq.Land:Reducedsupplypusheduppricesforqualityplots;awaiting2Hwindow- 5M26land purchase-57%yoyfor listed names onreduced land supply inkey cities(300cities1H26:-27%byGFA,a20-yearlow).COLI,Jinmao,C&D,Greentownplantoacquire in 2H when step-up supplycould offer betterland prices,aftera strong2025.CRL&PolyDevwereactive in1H.CRLis strong in SZ.C&Dpickedupin Jun. Expectmoresalesgrowthin3Q-Weexpectmorelistednames'salesgrowthtoshould also accelerate.In1H26,five names already delivered positive salesgrowth:COLI+12%yoy,Jinmao+8%,CMSK+8%,CRL+6%,COGO+15%. SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations. Notfordistribution inthePeople's Republicof China,excludingtheHongKong Special AdministrativeRegionand QualifiedForeign Institutional Investors. Source:Datastream,Citi Research Estimates Source:Datastream,Citi ResearchEstimates US+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 Theresearchanalysts primarilyresponsiblefor thepreparation and contentof this research reportareeither (i)designated analystsaredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystlistedinboldalongsidethecontentand (b)viewsexpressed solelywithrespecttoaspecificissuerwhichareattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystidentifiedinthepricechartsorratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalystscertify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportforwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviewsexpressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerandsecurityreferencedandwerepreparedinanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.and itsaffiliates;and (2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystinthisreport.IMPORTANTDISCLOSURES TheFirmhasmadeamarket in the publiclytradedequity securities of China Overseas Land &Investment Ltd on atleast one occasionsince1Jan2025TheFirmhas madea market in thepubliclytraded equitysecurities ofKE HoldingsInc on at leastone occasion since1Jan2025TheFirmhasmadeamarket inthepubliclytradedequitysecuritiesof ChinaResourcesLand Ltd onatleastoneoccasionsince1Jan2025Withinthepast12months,CitigroupGlobal MarketsInc.orits affiliateshasactedasmanagerorco-managerofanoffering ofsecurities ofChina Resources Land,Seazen Group.CitigroupGlobal Markets Inc.or its affiliateshasreceived compensation forinvestmentbanking servicesprovided withinthepast12monthsfromChinaOverseasLand&Investment,ChinaResourcesLand,ChinaResourcesMixcLifestyleServices,PolyProperty,SeazenGroup.CitigroupGlobal Markets Inc.or its affiliatesexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseek,withinthenextthreemonths,compensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromChinaOverseasLand&Investment,ChinaResourcesLand,ChinaResourcesMixcLifestyleServices,Poly PropertyCitigroupGlobal MarketsInc.or its affiliates received compensationforproducts and services otherthan investmentbankingservicesfromBeike,CiFl,China JinmaoGroupHoldings,ChinaOverseas Land&Investment,China ResourcesLand,ChinaResources Mixc LifestyleServices,Country Garden,Longfor GroupHoldings,Poly Property,Sunac China,Vanke inthepast12months.CitigroupGlobal MarketsInc.or its affiliates currentlyhas,orhadwithin thepast12 months,thefollowing as investmentbankingclient(s):ChinaOverseasLand&Investment,ChinaResourcesLand,ChinaResourcesMixcLifestyleServices,PolyProperty,SeazenGroupCitigroupGlobal MarketsInc.orits affiliates currentlyhas,or hadwithinthepast12months,thefollowingas clients,andtheservicesprovidedwerenon-investment-banking,securities-related:Beike,China Overseas Land&Investment,ChinaResourcesLand,China ResourcesMixcLifestyleServices