2026年中国储能与电池产业链调研要点

Gotion High Tech (002074.SZ)KeyTakeawaysfromChinaESSandBatteryChainTour LiuShenghua,IRDirector,andMr.LiuQinfeng,VicePresidentoftheIRdepartment,GotionHighTechon15th Jul.Thebatteryshipmentis~65GWhin1H26,withfullycapacityutilizationratioforESSbatteryand~70%utilizationratioforEVbattery.Thefullyearbatteryshipmentguidanceremainsat150GWh,including~45GWhESSbattery.Keytakeawaysareasfollows. Rmb27.000Target priceRmb42.700Expectedsharepricereturn58.1%Expected dividend yield0.4%Expectedtotalreturn58.5%Market CapRmb48,998MUS$7,238M Batteryshipment-The battery shipment is~65GWh in1H26, with fully capacityutilization ratioforESSbatteryand~70%utilization ratioforEVbattery.Thefullyearbatteryshipmentguidance remainsat150GWh,including~45GWhESSbattery.Gotion expects thebattery output in2H26Ewill be strongerHoHbecauseofexport VATrebatecutoffbyyearend. JackShang,CFAAC+852-2501-2441jack.shang@citi.com Anna Wang+852-2501-2739anna.d.wang@citi.com Batterycapacity-Effectivebatterycapacitywas~150GWhatYE2025,includingaddition,whichwillbeinoperationwithin2026Eandvolumecontributionmainlyin2027E.Mgmt.expectseffectivecapacitytoreach260GWhinYE2026E,including40GWhESSbatterycapacityadditionand70GWhEVbattery capacityadditionduring the year. Jimmy Fengjimmy.feng@citi.com Overseascapacity-TheMoroccobatteryprojectwith2oGWhcapacityisexpectedtobeinoperationin2026E.TheSlovakiabatteryprojectwith2OGWhcapacityandUSbatteryprojectwith15GWhcapacitywill belaterthanMorocco,dependingondemand. Capex-Theunitcapexis~Rmb10OmnperGWhfordomesticbatterycapacityandcapexin overseaswill behigher. Costpass-through-1H26gross profitmargin was underpressuredrivenbyhikingraw materials price.By end1H26, Gotion has successfully pass throughthe hikingcosttomostclients andmgmt.expects improvement inprofitmargin in2H26E SeeAppendixA-1forAnalystCertification,ImportantDisclosuresandResearchAnalystAffiliations Notfordistribution inthePeople'sRepublicofChina,excludingtheHongKongSpecial AdministrativeRegionandQualifiedForeign Institutional Investors. citivelocity.com WevalueGotion Hi-TechatRmb42.7O/sharebasedonanEV/EBITDAvaluationapproach as iteliminates uncertainties related to capital structures.Using15.1x2026EEV/EBITDA,0.5SDbelowthehistorical average since 2012due toa slowdown in39.0x2026EP/Eand23.4x2027EP/E Downside risks that could causethe Gotion Hi-Tech shares to continueto trade below ourtarget price include:1)slower-than- expected capacityexpansion ramp-up;2)lower-than-expected productmargins;and3)worse-than-expected NEV demand. US+1-210-677-3788 Appendix A-1 Theresearchanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparationandcontentofthisresearchreportareeither(i)designated by“Ac"intheauthorblock or(i)listed inbold alongsidecontentwhichis attributabletothatanalyst.If multiple Acanalystsaredesignatedintheauthorblock,eachanalystiscertifyingwithrespecttotheentireresearchreportotherthan(a)contentattributabletoanotherACcertifyinganalystlistedinboldalongsidethecontentand (b)viewsexpressed solelywithrespecttoaspecificissuerwhichareattributabletoanotherAc certifyinganalystidentifiedinthepricechartsorratinghistorytablesforthatissuershownbelow.Eachoftheseanalystscertify,withrespecttothesectionsofthereportforwhichtheyareresponsible:(1)thattheviewsexpressedthereinaccuratelyreflecttheirpersonalviewsabouteachissuerandsecurityreferencedandwereprepared inanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoCitigroupGlobalMarketsInc.and itsaffiliates;and (2)nopartoftheresearchanalyst'scompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystinthisreport.IMPORTANTDISCLOSURES Citigroup GlobalMarketsInc.oritsaffiliates receivedcompensationforproducts andservicesotherthaninvestmentbankingservicesfromGotionHighTechinthepast12months. Citigroup Global Markets Inc.or its affiliates currentlyhas,orhad withinthepast12months,thefollowing as clients,andtheservices provided were non-investment-banking,non-securities-related:Gotion HighTech. activities and services intendedtobenefit theinvestorclients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc.andits affiliates (the“Firm").Compensationisnotlinkedtospecifictransactionsorrecommendations.Likeall Firmemployees,analystsreceive compensationthat is impactedbyoverall Firmprofitabilitywhichincludes investmentbanking,salesandtrading,andprincipaltradingrevenues.Onefactorinequityresearchanalystcompensationisarranging corporateaccesseventsbetweeninstitutional clients andthemanagementteamsofcoveredcompanies.Typically,companymanagementismore likelytoparticipatewhentheanalysthasapositiveviewofthecompany.For financial instruments recommended in the Product in which the Firm is not a market maker,the Firm is a liquidity provider insuchfinancialinstruments(andanyunderlyinginstruments)andmayactasprincipalinconnectionwithtransactionsinsuchinstruments.TheFirm isaregularissueroftraded financial instrumentslinked to securitiesthatmayhavebeenrecommended in the Product.The Firm regularly trades in the securities of the is