强化货币紧缩的理由

Asia centreinvestment,whilelabourdisruptionis limited sofar Economist, AsiaThe Hongkong and Shaghai Banking Corporation Limitedustin.feng@hsbc.com.hk+85222887108 upstreamcostpressurefeedingintobroaderpricesovertime Chief Asia Economist, Co-head Global Research AsiaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedfredericneumann@hsbc.com.hk+85228224556Mark McDonald • This backdrop may push some Asian central banks, such asthose in Korea and Taiwan, towards tighter monetary policy Head of Al and DataScienceHSBC Bank plcmark.mcdonald@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 3119Thomas Devlin Artificial intelligence(Al)offersmeaningfulgrowthupsideformanyAsianeconomies. The most immediate channels are surging Al hardware exports -equivalent toinvestment, which is particularly prominent in Malaysia. Beyond these near-termcatalysts, Al could also lift long-term growth potential through productivity gains. AnalystDataScienceHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.thomas.devlin@us.hsbc.com+1212 525 0672AbantiBhaumik AssociateBangalore LabourdisruptionAl'ssecond-roundeffectshavesofarbeenmodest:therehavebeennomasslayoffs and no step-change inproductivity.Drawing onanearnings call analysis,wefindthatmainland Chinese companies mayfacethe most near-term labour disruption-potentially serving as a“canary in the coal mine"for other Asian economies. Acrossthe region, Al adoption will displace some roles, but the impact can be mitigated bylabour as well as substitute it, raising output per worker in many occupations. Inflationcrosscurrents Inflation dynamics in Asia are increasingly shaped by the Al build-out rather than thetraditional oil-and-food cycle. As hyperscalers ramp up capex, demand is concentratinginanarrowsetof inputs,pushingup upstreamcostsfirstandonlylaterfilteringintobroader inflation via higher compute and services prices. The impact will vary,dependingonwhereaneconomysitsintheAltechstack-upstreamhardwareproducers,midstream assemblers,ordownstreamadopters.Inflation risks lookasymmetric:upstream suppliers, suchas Korea and Taiwan, are likely to feelpressures earlier than downstream pure adopters, such as India and Indonesia. Centralbank implications The Al supercycle strengthens the case for tighter monetary policy in economies withmeaningful Al-driven growth upside that sit upstream in the tech supply chain, andare, therefore, likely to see cost pressures first. Korea and Taiwan are two primeexamples,where Al maytilt thebalance towards further monetary tightening. This is our latest report on the Disruptive Technology theme. If you want tosubscribe to any of our nine big themes, click here Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https:/www.research.hsbc.com The Middle East geopolitical situation remains fluid, creating uncertainties in energy and industrial supply chains for Asian economies. At the same time, the prospect of higher food and commodityprices linked to this year's El Nino, alongside US monetary policy uncertainty under new FederalReserve Chair Kevin Warsh, is keeping Asian central banks on their toes (see The Fed, El Nino.and Al, 3 July 2026).The Al boom -still running hot on the back of robust capex intentions from big tech -adds a lotontheirplateswithoil,ElNino, new Fed Chair... further complication for policymakers.What are theAl theme's implicationsforAsian centralbankpolicy? 2026,weforecast rate hikes in Japan,Korea,Taiwan, India,Singapore,Indonesia, Vietnam,thePhilippines, and New Zealand, while mainland China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand, Bangladesh,and Australia are expectedtokeeppolicyrates unchanged (seeAsian Economics Quarterly:Still runnin', 24 June 2026). If Al boosts productivity without materially lifting inflation, it would strengthen the case forholding rates steady.Conversely,if theAldata centrebuild-outfunctions more likea negativesupply-side shock, it could reinforce the tightening bias for central banks planning to hike. In this report, we examine what the Al boom could mean for Asian central banks during thecurrent policy cycle byassessing how it may shape the growth, labour and inflation outlookacross Asian economies overthenext oneto two years. We look at how Al mayimpactAsia'sgrowth,labourmarket and inflation overthenexttwoyears Growth upside Al promises tobe a genuinely transformativetechnology,with far-reaching implications forrealeconomic activity. In Asia, the first-round macro effects of the Al infrastructure build-out arealready visible in surging exports and data centre investment. As Chart 1 shows, Al's growthimpact is most evident in Al hardware exports -equivalent to nearly half of GDP in Taiwanand Vietnam-and in data centre investment, which is most prominentin Malaysia. Near-term growth upsideevident inAlhardwa