7月FOMC纪要：加息概率仍存，但美联储开始关注货币紧缩的滞后性

全球宏观 加息概率仍存，但美联储开始关注货币紧缩的滞后性—7月FOMC纪要 蔡瑞,CFACarl.Cai@bocomgroup.com(852)37661808 相较于7月FOMC会议声明及鲍威尔新闻发布会，2023年8月16日公布的7月FOMC会议纪要释放出了更多关于经济活动，特别是通胀的讨论。会议纪要整体基调偏鹰，本次会议纪要关于通胀的讨论占据了较大篇幅，且多数与会者认为通胀上行风险较大，或需要进一步的紧缩。(most participants continued tosee significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening ofmonetary policy. Moreover, the additional monetary policy tightening that would benecessitated by higher or more persistent inflation.)但美联储后续对加息的态度或更趋谨慎，一些与会者提示紧缩的滞后性影响可能超预期，且强调平衡过度紧 缩 与 紧 缩 不 足 的 风 险 。(…the macroeconomic effects of the tightening infinancial conditions since the beginning of last year could prove more substantialthan anticipated… with the stance of monetary policy in restrictive territory, risks tothe achievement of the Committee’s goals had become more two sided, and it wasimportant that the Committee’s decisions balance the risk of an inadvertentovertightening of policy against the cost of an insufficient tightening.) 李少金Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com(852)37661849 7月FOMC会议纪要要点概述 短期通胀及就业市场韧性使得年内加息预期仍存 通胀存在上行风险 委员会对于通胀整体判断：尽管出现了放缓迹象，但是仍处于高位，且 需 要 看 到 更 多 通 胀 继 续 放 缓 证 据 。(Consumer price inflationcontinued to show signs of easing but remained elevated. Participantsnoted the recent reduction in total and core inflation rates. However, theystressedthat inflation remained unacceptably high and that furtherevidence would be required for them to be confident that inflation wasclearly on a path toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective) 通胀的韧性可能超过预期，且供给端冲击也有可能导致通胀再度上行。(Risks to the staff’s baseline inflation forecast were seen as skewed tothe upside, given the possibility that inflation dynamics would prove to bemore persistent than expected or that further adverse shocks to supplyconditions might occur)我们在《从周期与结构角度重新拆解美国通胀》中指出，美国通胀受周期和结构因素双重影响，在未来整体将继续放缓，但房租和能源项目在供应端结构性因素的影响下仍具韧性。而美国7月CPI数据也反映了我们的判断，能源价格反弹或推动CPI能源分项环比继续走高；住房通胀虽存在滞后性，但回落进展不及预期，以及剔除住房的核心服务通胀仍显韧性，薪资上涨压力或增强其粘性。 资料来源:彭博,交银国际 资料来源:彭博,交银国际 劳动力市场仍然偏紧，且薪资压力不减 委员会对于劳动力市场的整体判断：劳动力市场依然趋紧，尽管供需失 衡 逐 步 缓 解 。(The labor market remained very tight, though theimbalance between demand and supply in the labor market was graduallydiminishing.)我们在《从周期与结构因素拆解美国劳动力市场的韧性来源》中提及，结构性因素扰动使得此轮劳动力市场较历史上更有韧性，结构性因素导致劳动力供需缺口收窄缓慢，并进而造成薪资增长整体滞后下行。7月就业市场显示劳动力供需缺口虽有所收窄，但仍维持在360万人的高位。 委员会认为当前薪资压力依然在，尽管增速已有所回落，但是仍相对较 高 。(Participants also observed, however, that although growth inpayrolls had slowed recently, it continued to exceed values consistent overtime with an unchanged unemployment rate, and that nominal wages werestill rising at rates above levels assessed to be consistent with the sustainedachievement of the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.)当前就业缺口尚未明显收窄的形势下，供需失衡使得时薪同比增速回落接近停滞，核心通胀的粘性风险正在上升。7月薪资增速再度超预期上涨，近三个月时薪环比增速一直在0.4%左右，而同比增速徘徊在4.4%，距离美联储3%-3.5%的合意水平仍有不小距离。 资料来源: Macrobond、交银国际 资料来源: Macrobond、交银国际 美联储不再预测年内会陷入衰退 基于经济活动温和扩张，且银行业流动性风险暂缓，美联储判断年内美国经济将不会陷入衰退。(Since the emergence of stress in the bankingsector in mid-March, indicators of spending and real activity had come instronger than anticipated; as a result, the staff no longer judged that theeconomy would enter a mild recession toward the end of the year.)美国二季度GDP超预期上行，消费支出维持韧性，而近期公布的7月零售销售环比大超预期，再度反映了需求端的强劲。鲍威尔在7月新闻发布会上强调了经济强劲增长可能加剧通胀，或需要政策回应。因此，美联储短期或更专注于通胀上行的风险，经济的韧性也支撑美联储进一步紧缩。 美联储对后续加息态度或更谨慎，并关注货币紧缩的滞后性 一些（A couple of）美联储官员开始转向… 美联储内部对于7月的加息决定存在分歧。尽管票委们一致同意7月加息25基点的决定，但仍有一些官员表示支持继续暂停加息。银行业风险事件后，一些官员对于加息态度更偏谨慎。与5月FOMC暂停加息的理由相同，部分官员认为7月继续暂停加息可以使得美联储有更多时间评估紧缩影响。(A couple of participants indicated that they favoredleaving the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged or that theycould have supported such a proposal. They judged that maintaining thecurrent degree of restrictiveness at this time would likely result in furtherprogress toward the Committee’s goals while allowing the Committee timeto further evaluate this progress.) …理由在于货币政策滞后性的影响可能超预期 一些与会者表示货币政策紧缩的影响可能超过预期，并对经济活动造成下行风险。(Some participants commented that even though economicactivity had been resilient and the labor market had remained strong, therecontinued to be downside risks to economic activity and upside risks to theunemployment rate; these included the possibility that the macroeconomiceffects of the tightening in financial conditions since the beginning of lastyear could prove more substantial than anticipated.)与会者认为紧缩政策滞后显现影响超预期，或主要在于本次加息周期为近40年来最快，也是最陡峭的。根据美联储官员沃勒的表述，加息通常在9至12个月后对经济产生影响。因此，当前经济或尚未反映美联储最为激进加息阶段的影响。银行业风险暂缓，但信贷紧缩的影响同样需要时间观察，叠加美国TGA账户开始回补，对宏观流动性的支撑不再。因此，货币紧缩滞后显现对于美国经济是否能维持当前韧性，并实现软着陆均具有较大不确定性，需要密切关注美国居民（需求韧性）以及企业部门（供给弹性）的边际变化。 后续政策需平衡过度紧缩与紧缩不足 一些与会者认为当前货币政策影响已经达到了限制性区间，实现目标的影响变得更具两面性。后续利率决议需要平衡过度紧缩与紧缩不足的 风 险 。(A number of participants judged that, with the stance ofmonetary policy in restrictive territory, risks to the achievement of theCommittee’s goals had become more two sided, and it was important thatthe Committee’s decisions balance the risk of an inadvertent overtighteningof policy against the cost of an insufficient tightening.)随着美联储已将利率升至限制性区间，将通胀降至合