人民币流动故事仍有支撑

The RMB flow story still has legs Strategist+852-2203-6153 highest level sinceFebruary at $57.4bn, and bringing the3MMAto $47bn.Theselling continues to be driven primarily by robust FX conversion from exporters,atrend consistentwithChina'sexpandingtradesurplusandcorroboratedbyourproprietary EPIC data, which continues to signal active corporate RMBconversion demand. MacroStrategist+852-2203-6159 The exporter conversion ratio rebounded sharply in the latest reading, to 64.5%,versus 58.2% in May, though the 3MMA is still looking poor because of the weakApril reading. We expect the exporter conversion activity to remain firm in the second half ofthe year. The lower USD/CNY fix suggests policymakers are becoming moretolerant of RMB appreciation,which increases the opportunity cost forexportersof holding USD receipts.Even if the conversion ratio stabilizes at current levels,the continued expansion of China's trade surplus would increase the volume ofexportproceeds available for conversion. Tobesure,arecovery inoutboundcapital flows couldmoderateappreciationpressure for the RMB, and this is a dynamic visible in the SAFE's net FX receiptandpaymentdata(whichcaptureoverallcross-borderflowsincludingexporterconversionactivity).InJune,portfolioflowsshiftfromanet inflowof$18bntoanet outflow of $36bn despite continued foreign purchases of CGBs (~s$1bn). Butthe overall balance of flows remains supportive. We remain short USD/CNHpositions via options. Asia Chart Alert Appendix 1 recommendation or view in this report. Chen Kan, Perry Kojodjojo. Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local companies,and other sources.Forfurther informationregarding disclosures relevanttoDeutscheBank Research,please visit our global disclosure look-uppage on ourwebsite athttps://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FiCCDisclosures.Asidefrom withinthis report, important risk andconflict disclosures can also be found at https://research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investors arestrongly encouraged to review this information before investing. Asia Chart Alert 'DeutscheBank).Thoughthe information herein isbelievedtobereliableandhas been obtained frompublic sourcesbelieved to be reliable, Deutsche Bank makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness.Hyperlinks tothird-party websites in this report are provided for reader convenience only.Deutsche Bank neither endorses thecontentnorisresponsiblefortheaccuracyorsecuritycontrolsofthosewebsites. report,or is included ordiscussed in another communication (oral orwritten)froma Deutsche Bank analyst, DeutscheBank may act as principal for its own account or as agent for another person. ownaccountorwithcustomers,inamannerinconsistentwiththeviewstakeninthisresearchreport.OtherswithinDeutscheBank,includingstrategists,sales staff and otheranalysts,maytakeviewsthatare inconsistentwiththosetaken in this research report.Deutsche Bank issues a variety of research products, including fundamental analysis,equity-linkedanalysis,quantitativeanalysis and tradeideas.Recommendations containedin onetype ofcommunication may differ from recommendations contained in others, whether as a result of differing time horizons,methodologies, perspectives or otherwise. Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliates may also be holding debt or equitysecurities of the issuers it writes on.Analysts are paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and itsaffiliates,which includes investmentbanking,tradingand principaltrading revenues. do not necessarilyreflect the opinions of Deutsche Bank and are subject to changewithout notice.Deutsche Bankprovides liquidityforbuyers and sellers ofschecompaniesitcovers.DeutscheBankresearchinconsistent with Deutsche Bank's existing longer-termratings.SometradeideasforCallsontheResearchWebsite(https://research.db.coal coverage list andalso onthecoveredcompany's page.ACatalyst Callrepananalystthatastockwill outperformorunderperformthemarketand/oraspecifiedtimeframeof no less thantwo weeks andno morethanthreemonths.InadditiontoCatalystCalls,analystsasionallydiscusswithourclients,andwithDeutscheBanksalespersonsandtraders,tradingstrategiesorideasthatreferencecatalystsoreventsthatmayhaveanearterm or medium-term impact on the market price of the securities discussed in this report, which impact may bedirectionally countertothe analysts'current 12monthvieoftotal returnorinvestmentreturnasdescribedherein.DeutscheBankhasnoobligationtoupdate,modifyoramendthisreportortootherwisenotifyarecipientthereofifanconditions and inbothgeneralandcompany-specificeconomicprospectsmake itdifficulttoupdateresearchatdefinedintervals.Updatesareatthesolediscretion ofthe coverageanalystor of the ResearchDepartmentManagement, and the majority of reports are published at irregular intervals.This report is provided for informationalindividual clients.It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offerto buy or sell any finan