能源行业报告：石油库存还能支撑多久

Bernstein Energy: How much longer can oil inventories last? than expected.While consensus has been that both Iran andthe US shouldbe willing toenter a negotiated solution,recent events suggest that they are far apart on key items in theMOU, with neither side ready to back down. +852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com +852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com oftheconflict,withflowsdownby15MMbbls/dandnetsupply losses averaging12MMbls/d. While disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz were initially partially offset byhigher Red Sea flows,this supportis now reversing as bypass options become increasinglyconstrained.Although there has been an increase in non-OPEC supply, we estimate acumulative loss of c.1.5bn barrels since the conflict began. +8522123 2612kelvin.yuan@bernsteinsg.com Weestimatethat290MMbbls,or73%,oftheemergency400MMbblSPRreleasehas alreadybeen exhausted, with theremainder likelytobeutilized by September.40OMMbbl emergencyreleaseprogramme tobe fullyutilizedbythe end of September.TheUS couldconceivablyauthorizean additional18OMMbblrelease,extending supportfor anotherthree months through year-end, but this would reduce US SPR inventories toaround 7OMMbbls,the estimated operational minimumlevel. ChinahasalsoprovidedakeybuffertoOECDcommercialstocks,butwithdrawsreaching75MMblsper month,thiscan onlylasttoyear-end.China has reducedseaborne imports from14MMbls/dto5MMbls/d (>50%reduction)sincethe startofthe conflict. While refining runs have also declined (6% YTD), China has been drawing onstrategic reserves toplug the gap.With 1.4bn bbls in crudereserves,China can continuetocurb importsintheshortterm,butwill reach6odaysreservecoverbyyear-end. Thedrawdown incommercial oil inventories is likelytoaccelerateinto 4Qas SPRandChineseinventorybuffersbecomeincreasinglydepleted.OECDcommercialinventories have declined by only 116MMbbls fromthe startof the conflict through end-July,significantly less than the drawdowns seen in SPR and Chinese inventories.We expectafurtherdeclineof at least100MMbls through2H26withbuffers exhausted andnomeaningful recovery in Middle East flows. As a rule of thumb,every 100MMbbl draw inOECD commercial inventories has historically been associated with roughly a US$10/bblincrease in oil prices. Weexpect2026BrenttoaverageUS$90/bblandlongtermUS$75/bbl,butareturntotripledigitpricesisincreasingthelongertheconflictcontinues.Asbuffersareexhausted andtheburden shiftsto OECDcommercial inventories,we expectoil pricesto strengthen further. We forecast Brent to average approximately US$9/bbl this year,althoughpricescouldbreach$1OObeforeyear-endifOECDcommercial inventoriesdrawbyafurther10OMMbls.This isabovecurrentconsensusexpectationsofaroundUS$83/bblfortheyearandaheadofthefuturescurveatUss86/bbl,reflectingourmoreconstructiveviewon inventoriesandMiddle Eastsupplyrisks.Assuch,weremainconstructive onthesector. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS The initialfearin oil markets followingtheMiddle East conflict gave wayto calmafterthe signing ofthe MoUbetween the USand Iran and the resumption of oil flows from the Arabian Gulf as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was lifted. However,therenewed escalation inthe Middle Eastandthe subsequent closure oftheStrait havepushedBrentback towardUss9o/bbl.While it may be logical to assume that both sides ultimatelywishto de-escalate, it remains unclear howthis can be achievedgiven Iran's desire to retain influence overthe Strait of Hormuz and maintain control of its enriched uranium.Although furtherrounds of negotiations are possible, it is equally plausible that the region enters a prolonged cycle of escalation and de-escalation without any lasting resolution to the underlying conflict.Despite the geopolitical backdrop,oil prices haveremainedrelatively muted so far.Thekeyreason is that OECD commercial inventories have declined by only116MMbbls despiteacumulative supplyloss of approximately1.54bnbarrels sincetheconflictbegan.Themarkethas insteadbeenbalancedthrough a combination of demanddestruction,SPRreleases,and a remarkablereduction in Chineseimports,which are nowroughly 50% below pre-conflict levels.These buffers are not inexhaustible,however.The 4ooMMbbl emergencySPRreleaseis likely to be fully utilized by September. While additional releases are possible, they would likely extend only to year-endbefore inventories approachminimumoperating levels.China faces a similar constraint.Atcurrentdrawdown rates,its crudeinventory coverage could fall below 6o days of demand by year-end,materially reducing its ability to continue absorbing thedisruption.Taken together,this suggests oil prices are likely to continue trending higher as long as the Strait remains disrupted,withthe risk ofa significantupwardmoveonceSPRreleases and Chinese inventorybuffers become increasinglydepleted.however, remains difficult to assess given the wide gap that still exists between Iran and the US. Against this backdrop, oilprice forecasting remains challenging. Nonetheless, we believe an av