伯恩斯坦能源：10亿桶供应损失，库存还能维持多久？

Bernstein Energy: One billion barrels of lost supply. How long caninventories last? Supply disruption has exceeded 1 billion barrels.From March 1 to April 30, liquidsflows through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea were reduced by 16.4MMbbls/d,equivalent to roughly 1.0bn barrels of lost supply. Real-time data show no meaningfulimprovement since the conflict started, with only a handful of laden tankers attempting toexit. Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com The biggest offsets have been lower Asian demand and reduced oil-on-water.Asianimports are down 422MMbbls, or around 7MMbbls/d, absorbing the biggest share of thedislocation. Oil-on-water has declined by 2.5MMbbls/d, while OECD inventories have fallenby 1.0MMbbls/d, showing onshore stocks are now playing a larger role. Higher Americas oilsupply (+2.4MMbbls/d) primarily through US exports has also helped offset the disruption.This leaves around 3.6MMbbls/d (222MMbbls) that remain unaccounted for, likely comingfrom lower sanctioned oil, non-OECD inventory draws, and SPR releases which we havebeen unable to track. Asian countries are under increasing pressure as inventory levels continue to slide.Vietnam, South Korea and Thailand look most constrained, with implied cover below 70days and imports down over 20% of pre-conflict inventory. India has lost roughly 33% ofpre-conflict inventory, though imports have been surprisingly resilient. China and Japanremain best positioned with larger stock bases, creating a divergence that determineswhich economies face acute rationing risk if the disruption extends. Weekly data points to accelerating Asian and OECD inventory draws in the weeksahead.Imports to Asia were 5MMbls/d for the first 2 months of the conflict, but down10MMbls/d for the last 10 days, implying more rapid inventory draws. Average UScommercial inventories have trended lower since mid-April, with the week ending April 25falling by a record 17MMbbls. The SPR has also continued to decline over the same period.Based on weekly data, we expect OECD commercial inventories fell by around 45MMbbls inApril, one of the largest monthly draws in recent years. We expect Brent oil to average $90/bbl in 2026 based on current supply anddemand expectations.Our forecast is 1Q $81, 2Q $100, 3Q $90, 4Q $85, assuming theStrait reopens in time for Gulf barrels to return in 2H. If reopening is delayed, lost MiddleEast supply would continue to be offset through lower Asian imports, further inventorydraws and demand destruction, implying a tighter market and greater price upside than thebase case. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS With the US-Iran conflict now into its third month, hopes of a speedy resolution have faded. We are still in the camp that believesthat the US and Iran will reach a deal which will allow the SoH to reopen by June and full flows resume by September, but thisis conjecture on our behalf and there is simply no way of knowing. Despite the loss of 1bn bbls of supply, oil markets have beencalmer than many expected. Liquidation of oil on water, the release of SPR reserves, increased exports from the US and liftingof sanctions on Russian and Iranian dark fleet oil has cushioned the impact of supply disruption. However, lower supply throughthe Straits of Hormuz is now directly translating into lower inventories to Asia. In the first 60 days of the conflict Asian importswere 5MMbls/d lower than the previous year. In the past 10 days this figure has doubled to 10MMbls/d. How much inventoryeach country holds is unclear, and we suspect several countries are not being forthcoming for obvious reasons about how muchstock is left. For some countries such as India, Vietnam and S. Korea, we estimate that as much as one third of inventories hasbeen depleted. At the current run rate, Vietnam may only have one month of supply left while South Korea and Thailand mayhave two months. Even if the conflict ends tomorrow, these countries will still be left in a precarious situation. As inventoriesstart to draw more aggressively, the upward pressure on oil price will increase. We are now of the view that US$90/bbl is now amore reasonable estimate for oil price this year, although it presupposes a timely end to the conflict which is far from certain. DETAILS SUPPLY DISRUPTION REACH 1 BILLION BBL The conflict has severely disrupted liquids flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. From March 1 to April 30, flowswere reduced by 16.4MMbbls/d, equivalent to roughly 1.0bn barrels of lost supply. This created cascading effects acrossthe region: Gulf export barrels stopped flowing, Asian import weakened, floating storage was drawn down, and the disruptionamplified pressure on routes already affected by Red Sea insecurity. EXHIBIT 1:From March 1 to April 30, liquids flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea were reduced byroughly 1.0bn barrels, led by weaker Asian imports an