野村日本化工行业人工智能半导体需求放缓背景下的投资思路2026071713页

EQUITY: JAPAN CHEMICALS & TEXTILES Research Analysts Potentially stronger valuations for paint Japan chemicals & textiles Shigeki Okazaki - NSCshigeki.okazaki@nomura.com+81 3 6703 1170 We see possible margin improvements for packaging materials too Daiki Ban - NSCdaiki.ban@nomura.com+81 3 6703 1124 Correction for semiconductor material stocks We have been focusing on the electronic materials subsector of the chemicals & textilessegment, and on semiconductor materials in particular. We think the spread of AI demandfrom GPUs and HBM through to ASIC, CPUs, and NAND, and to analog and powersemiconductors, has resulted in business conditions that stand to benefit a wide range ofsemiconductor materials. Yusho Yoshitake - NSCyusho.yoshitake@nomura.com+81 3 6703 1169 Takaomi Kono - NSCtakaomi.kono@nomura.com+81 3 6703 1207 That said, the share prices of companies in the chemicals & textiles sector with highexposure to electronics materials (semiconductor-related companies) have beencorrecting (Figures 1–4). This could be due to profit-taking on semiconductor-relatedstocks after heavy buying in 2026 H1 or concerns that overinvestment in AI will crimpcash flow at hyperscalers and cause AI investment to wane. Shu Kanbe, CFA - NSCshu.kanbe@nomura.com+81 3 6703 1214 We think AI-related demand remains strong and retain our view that electronic materialswill continue to generate favorable earnings, but even so, in this report we look atinvestment ideas assuming that the improvement in business conditions for AIsemiconductors and other parts of the electronic materials industry levels off. Paint and textiles see little profit contribution from AI semiconductors Subsectors such as paint, fibers & textiles, and diversified chemicals have little profitexposure to products for AI semiconductors, and are likely to be less affected by aleveling off of the improvement in business conditions (Figure 5). We expect earnings at Nippon Paint Holdings [4612] (Neutral) to improve from Jul–Sep2026 onwards as we expect revisions to selling prices to have a positive impact. We seeupside over 26/12 operating profit guidance if the situation in the Middle East normalizesand crude oil prices settle down. Kansai Paint [4613] (Neutral) is highly exposed to the automobile industry, and its use offormula-based contracts means it can take a little while for cost pass-throughs to bed in,but we think they will contribute to earnings in Oct–Dec. We also look to fixed cost savingsin Europe in FY27. Teijin pushing ahead with restructuring Teijin [3401] (Neutral) has been working hard to rein in fixed costs for aramid fiber andcarbon fiber. When it released 26/3 results, it said it planned to step up its focus ontreatments for rare and intractable diseases in pharmaceuticals, and we expect earningsto be relatively solid through 2026–27 despite sluggish demand. At Toray Industries [3402] (Neutral), we expect sales of MLCC film and carbon fiber forthe Boeing 787 to rise, but see a risk of lackluster demand for industrial-use carbon fiberand automotive and display-use films, which generate substantial sales. On the otherhand, the company may have seen front-loaded demand in Apr–Jun owing to concernsamong customers about petrochemical shortages. We estimate strong earnings at diversified chemicals in Apr–Jun thanks in part toinventory valuation gains We think diversified chemicals companies performed well in Apr–Jun 2026 on frontloadeddemand from customers concerned about petrochemical shortages, the booking ofnaphtha inventory valuation gains, and sustained growth in demand for semiconductormaterials. However, these positives may run their course in Jul–Sep. We do not expectany real improvement in fundamentals until companies start cutting ethylene productioncapacity in Japan in Jan–Mar 2027. We think diversified chemicals will warrant attentionas share prices in the subsector relative to TOPIX tend to track ethylene capacityutilization in Japan. Mitsui Chemicals [4183] (Neutral) has high sales exposure topetrochemicals in Japan, and stands to benefit from reductions in ethylene productioncapacity in the country (see our 26 June 2026 reportJapan diversified chemicals: Pointsto watch in Apr–Jun earnings - Focus on return to normal in Middle East, structuralreforms). Potential improvement in packaging material spreads from Jul–Sep 2026 It looks as though packaging material producers have seen an increase in bargainingpower over converters, their customers. We could see a widening of spreads from Jul–Sep 2026 onwards for packaging films at Toyobo [3101] (Neutral) and other products atcompanies including DIC [4631] (Buy), artience [4634] (Neutral), and Sakata Inx [4633](Neutral). We think DIC stands to benefit in particular here, owing to its high exposure tomajor converters, which are more interested in stable supply than prices, and its shift inpolicy to focus more on prices versus rivals (see our 16 June 2026 reportDIC (4631 JP)(Buy)