五大C因素驱动全球股市行情扩展

Equity StrategyGlobal +WeremainconstructiveonglobalequitiesbutexpectabroadeninginperformancedrivenbythefiveC's Head EM and Global Equity StrategistHSBC Securities (USA) Ingalastair.pinder@us.hsbc.com+12125255972Pankaj Agarwala*,CFA Corporateearnings,Central banks,Capex,ConsumerandCapital flows EMandGlobal Equity StrategistHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedpankajagarwala@hsbc.co.in+9108030013716 • Middle East tensions and higher energy prices are downsiderisks, but for now offset by improving fundamentals elsewhere We remain bullish on global equitymarkets,but are increasingly positioning forarotationinperformance.Earlysignsofthatshiftarealreadyemerging.Ourgloballong-versus-shortmomentumfactorhas fallen15% over thepast 3weeks,but webelieve the reversal likely has further to run. The rally in momentum stocks year-to-date has been one of the strongest on record. Historical precedent suggests that,after a 20% rise in the momentum factor,the subsequent reversal typicallypersistsfor around six months. The current episode is particularly unusual: after initially rising20%,momentumsubsequently squeezed another25%higher.In ourview,thatleaves thefactorincreasingly vulnerable to a sharper and more sustained reversal. *Employed by a non-US affliate ofHSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Othersigns ofapotential rotationarealso becoming more evident.Concentrationacross global equity indices -particularly in the US and EM-remains close to recordhighs.Yet,forall thefocusonAlandtechnologyoutperformance,therestofthemarkethas, broadly speaking,also performed well. Equal-weighted indices in the Us, EM, andEuropeareup12%,5%,and10%,respectively,year-to-date.Renewedtensionsinthe Middle East and a large spike in energy prices are downside risks, but for now webelieve the improving fundamental backdrop elsewhere should more than offset this. We believe a further rally and sustained broadening in global equity-marketperformancecanbesupportedbythefiveCs: Corporate earnings: US earnings growth looks strong and broadening beyondtech/energy with revision improving.EMand EuropeEPS are also accelerating Central banks: Markets are pricing 37bps of hike by mid-2027; further hawkishrepricing may be limited, which should support cyclicals. emerges, but big hyperscaler upgrades are limited, moderating semiconductoroutperformance after strong gains. Consumer: Despitea slowdown in real-time spending data, outlook remainsconstructive amid stronglabor data,World Cup boost and wealth effects.Cons.discretionary valuations are cheap, and earnings expectations look too pessimistic. Nocountryforbears The 24th edition of the EM Sentiment Survey Capital flows: Despite record Us IPO and secondary issuance, equity demand looksstrong: buybacks remain large, retail ETF inflows are accelerating,global inflows arerising, Europe funds are rotating into cyclicals, and EM ex-tech is seeing inflows. Click to view Issuer of report: HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures andthe analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBCGlobal Investment Researchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com The five C's fora broadening supported by the five Cs: favorable for the US. Consensus expects the S&P 500 to deliver earnings growth of nearly 23%y-o-y, but the bulk of this -85% -is expected to come from tech and energy, where earningsare forecast to grow 62% and 124% y-o-y, respectively1. Yet, for all the focus on tech and itsoutsized contribution to overall US earnings growth, we think the market is underestimating thepotential breadth of the expansion. The consensus expects the median US stock to see EPSgrowth slow from 15% y-o-y in Q1 to 9% y-o-y in Q2. Areas such as consumer discretionary andindustrials are expected by consensus to experience a sharp deceleration, but we believeconsensus is underestimating the resilience of corporate earnings despite the spike in energycosts amid the Middle East conflict. Corporate guidance trends also point to a broadening inearnings momentum. The ratio of companies raising guidance relative to those lowering it hasreached the top-seventh percentile, as management teams become more positive. The Usearnings revisions ratio has risen to 73%, its highest level since 2021 and in the top-fifthpercentile since 2000 -indicative of early-cycle market dynamics. Nor is the potentialbroadening confined to the US. In emerging markets, consensus expects EPS growth toaccelerate to35%in Q2,predominantly drivenby semiconductors.However, even excludingTaiwan and Korea, EM earnings are expected to grow close to 10.5% y-o-y,theirfastest pacesince Q2-22. Meanwhile, European earnings could grow 15% y-o-y in Q2, their strongest ratesince2022. Central banks: Market pricing for the Fed has shifted dramatically in recent months. As recentlyas March, the opti