有色*周报：镍价格震荡偏强，加息预期转弱

镍：价格震荡偏强，加息预期转弱 作者 价格底部回升，加息预期转弱 本周，SHFE镍价收于12.9万元/吨，环比+0.6%；LME镍环比+1.3%至16961美元/吨。 分析师廖浩祥SAC：S1070526040006邮箱：liaohaoxiang@cgws.com 宏观层面，7月29日美联储会议预期维持不变概率87%，加息概率13%，加息概率预期较上周下降。 供应：矿端到港转弱，电解镍产量减少 矿端：本周国内镍矿到港102万吨，环比-22%，同比-14%，矿端供给边际转弱。印尼RKAB配额审批仍在持续推进，市场对配额增加的预期较为浓厚。 分析师熊可为SAC：S1070525110001邮箱：xiongkewei@cgws.com 电解镍：本周总产量7970吨，环比由上周+0.2%转为-3.6%，同比由+4%转为-0.5%，电解镍时点利润-1512元/吨。 库存：国内库存仍在增加 本周，LME镍+SHFE镍库存37.36万吨，较上周+0.25%；其中SHFE库存99316吨，环比+1.2%，LME库存274284吨，环比-0.11%。国内纯镍社会库存为12.8万吨，环比+1598吨，同比+8.8万吨。 展望 短期：本周镍价震荡回升，矿端离港季节性转弱，电解镍利润转亏，同时印尼RKAB配额增加预期持续发酵，仍需等待落地情况。同时，我们认为前期价格底部已显现，预计镍价短期震荡偏强。 长期：我们认为镍在长期过剩与短期供应链脆弱之间反复博弈，印尼的一系列政策使得镍价成本支撑位进一步抬升。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、海外矿山供给释放超预期、宏观政策风险、报告中部分数据或有滞后风险 内容目录 宏观&印尼动态..........................................................................................................................................31.电解镍价格小幅回升，矿端价格下滑.........................................................................................................42.库存：国内库存赚增................................................................................................................................53.供给：矿端到港、离港同步降低................................................................................................................64.下游：7月300系粗钢排产环比小幅下滑...................................................................................................75.供需平衡表.............................................................................................................................................9风险提示...................................................................................................................................................9 图表目录 图表1：美联储降息概率（CME）...............................................................................................................3图表2：印尼动态追踪...............................................................................................................................3图表3：印尼内贸红土镍矿1.6%（美元/湿吨）...........................................................................................4图表4：菲律宾红土镍矿价格走势（美元/湿吨）..........................................................................................4图表5：SHFE及LME镍价格走势...............................................................................................................4图表6：镍内外盘价差（元/吨）................................................................................................................4图表7：印尼高冰镍&MHP FOB价格走势（美元/镍吨）................................................................................5图表8：电解镍成本及利润（元/吨）..........................................................................................................5图表9：高镍生铁价格及利润率..................................................................................................................5图表10：硫磺价格及相关产品价格走势......................................................................................................5图表11：SHFE镍&LME镍期货库存（吨）..................................................................................................5图表12：国内纯镍社会库存（吨）.............................................................................................................5图表13：保税区镍库存.............................................................................................................................6图表14：港口镍矿库存（万湿吨）.............................................................................................................6图表15：国内主要港口镍矿到港（万吨）...................................................................................................6图表16：菲律宾镍矿离港（万吨）.............................................................................................................6图表17：中国+印尼镍生铁产量（月度）....................................................................................................7图表18：镍铁产量及价格（吨，元/吨）.....................................................................................................7图表19：电解镍周产量（吨）...................................................................................................................7图表20：精炼镍开工率.............................................................................................................................7图表21：不锈钢市场价(元/吨)...................................................................................................................8图表22：不锈钢产量（万吨）...................................................................................................................8图表23：不锈钢周度89家样本企业库存（万吨）.......................................................................................8图表24：不锈钢月度表需（含库存）.........................................................................................................8图表25：三元电池产量（GWh）................................................................................................................8图表26：国内新能源汽车销量（万台）......................................................................................................8图表27：全球镍元素平衡表........................................................